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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 004317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09/14/07 
 
Index: 
 
(1) Fukuda nearly certain to become LDP president 
 
(2) LDP race: Major factions form anti-Aso coalition 
 
(3) Post-Abe diplomacy not in sight; Japan's N. Korea policy may 
change 
 
(4) Abe's resignation -- Japan's credibility at risk 
 
(5) Collapse of Abe administration (Part 2): Prime minister's gospel 
of "beautiful nation" gives no heed to voters' wishes 
 
(6) LDP presidential race: Where will "Koizumi children" go? 
 
(7) DPJ aggressively demanding disclosure of data by various 
government agencies; Diet is stalled 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Fukuda nearly certain to become LDP president 
 
YOMIURI (Top play) (Abridged) 
Eve., September 14, 2007 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party announced a presidential 
election today along with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement 
of his resignation. The leaders of the Machimura, Niwa-Koga, 
Yamasaki, Tanigaki, and Ibuki factions in the LDP clarified their 
support for former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, 71, who is 
with the Machimura faction. In the Tsushima faction, Finance 
Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, 63, who was eager to run in the race, has 
given up on his candidacy. The Tsushima faction is going to back 
Fukuda. Accordingly, Fukuda is expected to obtain support from more 
than half of the LDP's lawmakers. Fukuda is essentially now certain 
to become the LDP's new president. Meanwhile, LDP Secretary General 
Taro Aso, 66, will meet the press this afternoon to announce his 
candidacy for the race. Candidates are to file their candidacies 
tomorrow. The LDP will elect its new president on Sept. 23. 
 
(2) LDP race: Major factions form anti-Aso coalition 
 
TOKYO (Page 3) (Abridged) 
September 14, 2007 
 
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda has now made up his mind 
to run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential 
election. LDP Secretary General Taro Aso, who was ahead of all other 
potential candidates, has now gotten into a scrape with the advent 
of an influential candidate backed by big factions in the LDP. They 
want Fukuda elected to the post of LDP president. How did they form 
their coalition against Aso? 
 
"In a way, I may be the least lucky of all," Fukuda told reporters 
yesterday evening in the Diet, indicating that difficulties were in 
store for him even if he becomes prime minister. 
 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe abruptly announced his resignation on 
Sept. 12. After that, the "new YKK trio" of former LDP President 
Taku Yamasaki, former LDP Secretary General Makoto Koga, and former 
LDP Secretary General Koichi Kato was on the move. The three 
 
TOKYO 00004317  002 OF 009 
 
 
persuaded Fukuda to run for the LDP presidency. Former Finance 
Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki was also a potential candidate eager to 
run. However, Tanigaki, according to one close to him, has given up 
on his candidacy this time if Fukuda runs. 
 
The three factions of Koga, Tanigaki, and Aso stem from the former 
Miyazawa faction, which had a strong imprint of liberalism. The Koga 
and Tanigaki factions have distanced themselves from Abe, who is 
conservative. The two factions were strongly repulsed by the way Aso 
sought to take power while standing behind Abe. 
 
The Yamasaki faction, which is critical of Abe, joined the Koga and 
Tanigaki factions to form a coalition against Aso. "He has joint 
responsibility for Prime Minister Abe's sudden resignation." With 
this, one LDP veteran lawmaker criticized Aso. Such criticism is 
spreading in the LDP. The anti-Aso coalition has now expanded beyond 
the new YKK trio's framework. 
 
Fukuda, now backed by the anti-Aso factions, proved himself to be a 
steady hand as chief cabinet secretary when Prime Minister Koizumi 
was in office. Fukuda got high marks for his stable political 
ability, and he is also well known. His political stance is also 
regarded as liberal. At the time of the LDP race in the fall of last 
year as well, the new YKK trio moved to run Fukuda against Abe. 
Fukuda answered the call the new YKK trio had been making over the 
past two years. 
 
On Sept. 12, the new YKK trio asked Fukuda to run. At that time, 
Fukuda withheld his answer, telling them that he would "carefully 
consider" his entry into the race. 
 
Fukuda is with the Machimura faction, which has produced three prime 
ministers in succession, namely, Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, 
and Shinzo Abe. If Fukuda becomes the fourth one in a row, that is 
an extremely rare case. 
 
Furthermore, Abe's abrupt announcement of his resignation has thrown 
the LDP into confusion. "The Machimura faction should not say the 
next one is Fukuda," one of the Machimura faction's leaders said. In 
addition to Fukuda, the Machimura faction has Foreign Minister 
Nobutaka Machimura, who was a candidate for the race. Fukuda had to 
clear this problem before his entry into the race, or he could not 
expect to win. 
 
Fukuda met with Mori and Machimura yesterday afternoon. He also kept 
in touch with other factions. "The Machimura faction will not put 
him up," one of the Machimura faction's leaders said. "Instead," 
this leader added, "he will run in the form of being recommended by 
other factions." Fukuda then made up his mind. 
 
(3) Post-Abe diplomacy not in sight; Japan's N. Korea policy may 
change 
 
ASAHI (Page 8) (Full) 
September 13, 2007 
 
Will Japan continue to back up the United States in its war on 
terror? How will Japan deal with the pending issue of Japanese 
nationals abducted to North Korea? What is in store for the 
six-party talks over North Korea's nuclear programs? What will come 
out of Japan-China relations in their "thawing" phase? What about 
Japan's "assertive" diplomacy? Will Japan inherit or alter Prime 
 
TOKYO 00004317  003 OF 009 
 
 
Minister Abe's ideals-first diplomacy? In the aftermath of the prime 
minister's abrupt announcement of his resignation, Japan's foreign 
policy is also becoming increasingly uncertain. 
 
Prime Minister Abe has upheld his diplomacy with emphasis on values, 
aiming to strengthen Japan's relations with countries that share 
values like freedom and democracy. Taro Aso, secretary general of 
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, shored up Abe and his 
government while he was in the cabinet as Abe's foreign minister. 
Abe's values-oriented diplomacy also has something in common with 
Aso's diplomatic concept of an "arc of freedom and prosperity." In 
particular, Japan has now cited a bilateral joint declaration on 
security with Australia, following the first one with the United 
States. Japan has now expanded the scope of its bilateral alliance 
with the United States to a de facto tripartite alliance involving 
Australia. 
 
However, the Bush administration's plan to democratize the Middle 
East has now hit snags. Under such circumstances, Abe's diplomatic 
stance with ideals going first could unnecessarily antagonize 
Japan's neighbors. One of them is China, a big power rapidly growing 
in the region. Then, how will the next prime minister position Japan 
in its relations with China? 
 
Japan is deeply tied to the United States in political, economic, 
security, and various other areas. Abe's resignation would therefore 
not undermine the two countries' bilateral relationship at once. 
Even so, it is now difficult for Japan to continue the Maritime 
Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean under 
the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law (beyond its Nov. 1 expiry). 
As it stands, there is no knowing if Japan's next prime minister can 
build a honeymoon relationship like the Koizumi-Bush relationship. 
"The focus is on whether the next prime minister can continue the 
MSDF's mission," says a senior official of the Foreign Ministry. 
 
In addition, a US presidential election is also scheduled ahead. In 
its campaigning for the next presidency, the Democratic Party is 
seeking to expand the United States' engagement with China. What if 
the Democratic Party comes into office? "If that is the case," one 
of the Foreign Ministry's senior officials says, "the United States 
may shift the axis of its Asia diplomacy from Japan to China." 
 
Japan and the United States may be wavering in their relations. This 
will also likely leave subtle repercussions on the two countries' 
respective policies toward North Korea. The US government is 
considering removing North Korea from its terrorist list and 
formally ending the Korean War if North Korea abandons its nuclear 
programs and disables its nuclear facilities. 
 
Tokyo has told Washington that the US government should not delist 
North Korea as long as there is no progress on the abduction issue. 
However, the United States and North Korea are now moving at a high 
pitch for rapprochement through direct dialogue. Then, the question 
is if Japan's next prime minister can maintain Abe's hardline stance 
toward Pyongyang. Some note that Japan alone may be left behind 
other six-party members over their relations with North Korea. The 
post-Abe leader therefore could switch Abe's diplomatic stance. 
 
Abe, shortly after coming into office, visited China and South 
Korea. His visits to the two neighbors helped improve Japan's 
bilateral relations with the two countries. For the time being, 
Japan's bilateral relations with these two countries are not 
 
TOKYO 00004317  004 OF 009 
 
 
expected to undergo a sea change. This year marks the 35th 
anniversary of diplomatic normalization between Japan and China, 
with both countries in a mood to welcome it. Abe's predecessor, 
former Prime Minister Koizumi, was particular about paying homage at 
Yasukuni Shrine. While Koizumi was in office, there were no mutual 
visits of leaders between Japan and China. With Abe coming into 
office, the two countries resumed high-level mutual visits. Chinese 
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao visited Japan in April, and Chinese 
Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan in August. Chinese President Hu 
Jintao is scheduled to visit Japan next year. Ahead of his visit, 
how to get Japan-China relations on track will be a challenge for 
the next prime minister. 
 
Japan-China relations are thawing, with Abe having abstained from 
visiting Yasukuni Shrine and China having shelved issues related to 
history. However, Tokyo and Beijing have yet to resolve pending 
issues, such as what to do about developing oil fields together in 
the East China Sea. 
 
(4) Abe's resignation -- Japan's credibility at risk 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly) 
September 14, 2007 
 
By Naoaki Okabe, Nikkei editor-in-chief 
 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's abrupt announcement to step down caused 
not only chaos in the Liberal Democratic Party that has carried out 
irresponsible and childish politics but also rocked the entire 
nation. Public confidence in politics is now at stake. If the 
government fails to climb out of this political turmoil and a long 
policy vacuum results, Japan's political risk might eventually set 
off an international storm. The task of ending the political crisis 
will weigh heavily on the next administration. 
 
People might call it 9/12. An embattled Abe announced his intention 
to resign on September 12, the day after the international community 
renewed its resolve to fight against terrorism on the sixth 
anniversary of 9/11. 
 
The next administration will have to tackle the laborious homework 
Abe refused to finish. The refueling mission in the Indian Ocean is 
an important role Japan can play in the war on terrorism. Extending 
the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law is essential for maintaining 
the Japan-US alliance and working closely with the rest of the 
world. 
 
In contrast to the Iraq war that is strongly tinged with President 
Bush's unilateralism, the war in Afghanistan is an international 
effort involving such countries as Germany, France, and Pakistan 
that opposed the Iraq war. The government's decision to discontinue 
the refueling mission and leave the war on terrorism would harm 
Japan's international position, effectively bringing back the 
country to the days before the Gulf War, in which Japan was 
criticized for its "checkbook diplomacy." 
 
The war on terrorism is not the only pressing issue. Although the 
economy is recovering, the Japanese economy is saddled with many 
structural problems. For instance, the country has the fiscal 
deficit that is the highest among developed countries, and its 
birthrate is dropping while the population is graying rapidly. 
 
 
TOKYO 00004317  005 OF 009 
 
 
Japan is in more need of pension, tax, and fiscal reforms combined 
with growth strategy than ever before. Comprehensive tax reform, 
including hiking the consumption and corporate taxes, was supposed 
to be set in motion this fall. The political turmoil will deepen the 
structural problems. 
 
An administration rolling back reforms is the last thing the country 
needs. The lavish distribution of subsidies in the name of 
redressing socioeconomic disparities would weaken the country. The 
Abe administration has failed because its reform efforts were 
half-baked. The next administration is tasked with advancing reforms 
in an age of global competition. 
 
The global financial and capital markets have not been functioning 
properly due to the US subprime loan crisis. A setback from the 
reform policy course and other factors augmenting the political risk 
would push foreign investors toward Japan-selling, thereby throwing 
the markets deeper into confusion. 
 
Global environmental issues will test Japan's leadership. Toward the 
2008 Lake Toya Summit, intensive environmental diplomacy is expected 
to unfold over creating an international framework replacing the 
Kyoto Protocol. Prime Minister Abe's proposal served as the 
foundation for the Heiligendamm Summit agreement to halve greenhouse 
gas emissions by 2050. Abe jumped into the international spotlight 
because of that proposal. Japan, however, might not be able to meet 
its reduction targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol. 
 
Japan is playing a leading role in the international effort to 
create a post-Kyoto framework. Japan's failure to fulfill its 
responsibility due to political chaos would further undermine its 
international credibility. 
 
A firm political foundation is essential in addressing those tough 
issues. The best way to end the political turmoil is to dissolve the 
Lower House for a snap general election to establish a stable 
political foundation based on popular will. The process would raise 
some questions for the Democratic Party of Japan as a responsible 
political party. Those questions would include: How will Japan 
contribute to the international community in the war on terrorism? 
Is it possible to reform the pension system without raising the 
consumption tax? Does an income security system for individual 
farmers not go against agricultural reform? 
 
If an LDP-DPJ two-party system is to be realized, the nation could 
very well witness political realignment based on reform policies. 
Forming a grand coalition would be an option for achieving policy 
goals, such as pension and tax reforms. 
 
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's grand coalition has restored the 
country's economic health by hiking the value-added tax and lowering 
the corporate tax. She is also spearheading the international effort 
to prevent global warming. 
 
Germany's grand coalition succeeded because all parties shared a 
sense of crisis over the future of the country. Learning a lesson 
from Germany, Japanese political parties should also share a sense 
of crisis at this critical juncture. 
 
(5) Collapse of Abe administration (Part 2): Prime minister's gospel 
of "beautiful nation" gives no heed to voters' wishes 
 
 
TOKYO 00004317  006 OF 009 
 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) 
September 14, 2007 
 
In the morning yesterday, the day after Prime Minister Abe's 
astounding announcement of his resignation, Abe left his official 
residence for a hospital in Tokyo by a public vehicle and was 
hospitalized there. He did not attend a joint meeting of the Liberal 
Democratic Party's members of both houses in the afternoon. 
 
Prime Minister Abe has lost his political clout since his 
announcement of resignation. With his hospitalization due to poor 
physical condition, Abe also has literally disappeared from 
Nagata-cho (Japan's political center), where there is a lot of 
activity going on over the selection of a new prime minister. 
 
One year ago, Abe announced his candidacy for the LDP presidential 
election with great fanfare. He released a manifesto titled, "A 
beautiful nation, Japan," drawing both positive and negative 
evaluations over the past year. Abe came under the spotlight as the 
prince of the political world. Photographs of smiling Abe made the 
covers of magazines. 
 
The Abe administration brought forth in the manifesto the slogan of 
emerging from the postwar regime as one of the main pillars to build 
a beautiful nation. 
 
The agenda of freeing Japan from the postwar regime is aimed at 
revising the Constitution. On the Constitution, the prime minister 
noted in a book he authored: "In the preamble, there is a 
declaration that could be taken as a deed of apology offered by a 
defeated country." This agenda was also to lift a ban on Japan's use 
of the right to collective self-defense. 
 
In the first extraordinary Diet session held after Abe came into 
office, the government revised the Fundamental Law of Education as 
strongly desired by the LDP. In the earlier regular Diet session, 
the government also enacted the National Referendum Law, which sets 
legal procedures for revision of the Constitution. In addition, the 
Abe administration started discussion to partially allow the use of 
the right to collective self-defense. 
 
In the July House of Councillors election, although pension problems 
were the top campaign issue, the prime minister sought a judgment by 
the voters for his slogan of freeing Japan from the postwar regime. 
 
Just before the official announcement of the election, the prime 
minister had said: "I want to pin all my hopes on the achievements I 
have made (since assuming office)." 
 
The voters, however, took no notice of the achievements. After all, 
the prime minister tried his hand at the agenda of emerging from the 
postwar regime, against the backdrop of the "legacy" of more than 
300 seats in the House of Representatives left by former Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but he failed to win public trust in his 
policy. 
 
In the policy speech on Sept. 10, which turned out to be his last 
declaration of his determination to stay in power, the prime 
minister repeated his stock argument: "To secure a high quality life 
and a bright future, it is absolutely necessary to free Japan from 
the postwar regime." 
 
 
TOKYO 00004317  007 OF 009 
 
 
These words of the prime minister make us feel rather awkward. Why 
is the slogan of emerging from the postwar regime necessary in order 
to realize an affluent national life? This is nothing but a leap of 
logic. 
 
In summing up the Upper House election campaign, the LDP pointed out 
a gap in the order of policy priorities between the LDP and the 
voters. The voters wanted politicians to promise in the election 
campaign to step up efforts to resolve such issues as pension, 
employment, and social disparities, in order to bring about an 
affluent national life. The prime minister's postwar-regime slogan 
gave no heed to the wishes of the voters to the last. 
 
(6) LDP presidential race: Where will "Koizumi children" go? 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 14, 2007 
 
Every one of a group of Lower House members, including Jiro Ono, 
calling for former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to run in the 
upcoming presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP), was entering with a concerned air into the office on the 
fifth floor of the LDP's headquarters soon after 9:00 a.m. 
yesterday. 
 
Yasuhiro Nakagawa enthusiastically said: 
 
"We are now serving in the Lower House because former Prime Minister 
Koizumi promoted reforms. There is no other person than Koizumi who 
can push ahead with the reforms." 
 
Ono member echoed: "I believe that former Prime Minister is the only 
person who will be able to win the coming election." 
 
Both Ono and Nakagawa are the so-called "Koizumi children," who were 
elected for the first time to the Diet in the 2005 Lower House 
election. 
 
Ono and Yasufumi Tanahashi, former science and technology agency 
chief, who is now serving in his fourth term in the Lower House, got 
together at Grand Prince Hotel Akasaka late at night of Sept. 12 
when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his intention to step down. 
They then decided to form the group. On the evening that day, 31 
lawmakers signed a letter asking Koizumi to run in the race. 
 
In the background is a sense of crisis of freshman lawmakers, as 
there is no prospect as to whether they will be able to survive the 
next Lower House election. They are upset about the fact that Takeo 
Hiranuma, who bolted the LDP in opposition to the government's 
postal-privatization plan, called for favorable treatment of "postal 
rebels," who were defeated in the 2005 election. 
 
However, the Koizumi children are not necessarily united. At 11:00 
a.m. yesterday, the 83 (hachisan) Association composed of 83 Koizumi 
children wrapped up a meeting after 10 minutes. 
 
Chairman Masatada Tsuchiya proposed submitting a petition calling on 
the party leadership to hold an open presidential election. The 
members' views were divided. One member said reluctantly: "More than 
half of the 83 members belong to a faction." 
 
"There is no possibility that I will run in the election," Koizumi 
 
TOKYO 00004317  008 OF 009 
 
 
told former Prime Minister Mori on the phone yesterday. Tanahashi 
and his follows assembled last night at Toranomon Pastoral in Tokyo 
to discuss the second best option. One member said: "Secretary 
General Aso, who intends to allow Hiranuma to return to the party, 
is not our choice." Another member remarked: "In order to avoid our 
votes from becoming null, Tanahashi should run." 
 
The number of signatures collected was 36. The group will support a 
candidate who will follow the Koizumi reform drive, having the 
option of fielding its own candidate. After the meeting, Tanahashi 
repeatedly used the word "unity" in a press briefing. 
 
(7) DPJ aggressively demanding disclosure of data by various 
government agencies; Diet is stalled 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
September 14, 2007 
 
At a time when the extraordinary Diet session is stalled, following 
Prime Minister Abe's announcement of his plan to step down, the 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) is successively asking 
various government agencies to disclose data concerning such issues 
as the continuation of the Maritime Self-Defense Force's mission in 
the Indian Ocean and the wasteful spending of pension funds and tax 
money. It is now preparing to quiz the ruling camp in Diet debate 
when it is resumed. The aim is to take advantage of the current 
situation, where the ruling and opposition camps have traded places 
in the Upper House and, therefore, it can exercise administrative 
investigation rights. Another aim is to highlight differences from 
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), while it is preoccupied with its 
presidential election. 
 
Preparation for resumption of Diet debate 
 
Defense Operations Bureau Director General Nobushige Takamizawa 
during a meeting of the DPJ's Foreign and Defense Division held in 
the Diet on the morning of Sept. 13 offered a reply in response to 
the request to disclose data made by the party the previous day, 
"Refueling operations for vessels of the US and other countries are 
being carried out in a fair and appropriate manner. It is not 
possible to reveal the details of contracts for operational 
reasons." Some 40 DPJ participants jeered Takamizawa, calling on him 
to explain what a fair and appropriate manner is. 
 
Next Cabinet Foreign Minister Yoshio Hachiro requested that the 
Defense Ministry deal with the Diet session with the perception that 
the situation has changed after the Upper House election. In the 
end, he called for the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry to 
provide a reply again, claiming that their answers were 
insufficient. 
 
The DPJ has the initiative in deliberations on budgets and bills in 
the Upper House, where it has become the top party. On that 
strength, it is asking government agencies to disclose various data. 
Their aim is to quickly obtain data and use them for the pursuit of 
the government in Diet debate and for drafting bills. 
 
Next Cabinet Pension Minister Akira Nagatsuma on Sept. 12 made a 
sidewalk speech, noting, "A political vacuum will occur due to the 
LDP's presidential election. The DPJ in the meantime will hold 
division meetings and submit data to the government." 
 
 
TOKYO 00004317  009 OF 009 
 
 
However, government agencies are not complying with the DPJ's 
requests so easily. Regarding the allegation that the MSDF during an 
operation in the Indian Ocean refueled US vessels heading for Iraq, 
violating the objective of the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, a 
participant from the Defense Agency during a meeting of the Foreign 
and Defense Affairs Division offered no more explanation that that 
the ministry has already provided, saying, "The US said there were 
no such cases." 
 
The DPJ intends to roundly demand the disclosure of requested data 
from the government agencies that have failed to provide sufficient 
replies at the Budget Committee of both chambers. If they fail to 
respond to its request appropriately, it is determined to consider 
taking steps, including exercising administrative investigation 
rights by majority vote in the Upper House, according to Tetsuro 
Fukuyama, chairman of the DPJ's Upper House Policy Board. 
 
Azuma Koshiishi, chairman of the DPJ caucus in the Upper House, at a 
press conference on Sept. 13 noted that the stalled Diet caused by 
the LDP presidential election has given an opportunity for the DPJ 
to fully prepare for coming Diet deliberations. He thus stressed his 
party's stance of waging a contest fairly and squarely instead of 
availing itself of the political crisis. 
 
SCHIEFFER