VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #0583/01 2491425
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061425Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0147

UNCLAS TALLINN 000583 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/NB -- KATHERINE GARRY AND EUR/FO -- MELISSA BUCK 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV OVIP AMGT ASEC AFIN EN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRINCIPAL DEPUTY SECRETARY KURT 
VOLKER 
 
Ref: A) 06 TALLINN 311 B) TALLINN 432 C) TALLINN 519 D) 
 
TALLINN 547 E) 06 TALLINN 1114 F) TALLINN 0002 G) TALLINN 
541 H) TALLINN 366 I) TALLIINN 375 J) TALLINN 520 H) 
TALLINN 347 
 
¶1. (U) Welcome to Tallinn.  Your visit will bring you to 
one of our most supportive allies in Europe.  Your arrival 
comes on the heels of a banner period for U.S.-Estonian 
bilateral relations the past year: the President's historic 
visit to Estonia last November; Estonian appreciation for 
U.S. support during the April "Bronze Soldier" riots, 
subsequent cyber attacks and deteriorating relations with 
Russia; Foreign Minister Urmas Paet's visit to Washington 
for a celebration of the 85th anniversary of U.S-Baltic 
diplomatic relations; and President Toomas Hendrik Ilves' 
June visit to the White House. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Mr. Aivo Orav, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) 
Director General for Political Affairs, is hosting the 
Vilnius 10 (V-10) Political Directors Conference on 
September 12-13.  The conference agenda includes 
discussions on: 
 
- NATO enlargement (for Western-Balkan countries, Georgia, 
and Ukraine); 
- Euro-Atlantic integration of NATO partners; 
- Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty; 
- Missile Defense; 
- Kosovo; 
- Energy Security; 
- Russia; 
- Afghanistan; 
- Cyber Security; and 
- Iraq. 
 
Estonia: A Staunch NATO Ally 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATO AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: 
Estonia consistently supports U.S. positions within NATO. 
Despite the small size of its military, it is contributing 
8.2% of its deployable forces in NATO operations (in 
Afghanistan, Kosovo, NATO Response Force, and NATO's Iraq 
Training Mission in Jordan), Operation Enduring Freedom in 
Iraq, European Union's (EU) operations (the EU's Nordic 
Battle Group), and other foreign missions (including the UN 
mission in Lebanon).  Unlike some NATO allies which are 
cutting back on defense spending, the GOE is on track to 
meet its NATO commitment to devote 2% of its GDP to defense 
(currently at 1.83%). 
 
¶4. (U) AFGHANISTAN: Afghanistan is Estonia's highest 
foreign policy priority in the global war on terror (GWOT). 
A company of Estonian soldiers (130) is deployed to the 
southern province of Helmand  (the epicenter of 
Afghanistan's opium production and a stronghold for the 
Taliban).    On June 23, two Estonian soldiers were killed 
and four seriously wounded in a Taliban rocket attack. 
After the attack, Estonia's President, Prime Minister, 
Foreign Minister, and Defense Minister all publicly 
reiterated the GOE's support for the mission in 
Afghanistan.  Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo recently 
returned from a visit to Helmand where he met with Estonian 
troops (August 26-27).  In addition to its military 
presence, the GOE has one diplomat in Afghanistan who 
oversees Estonian development assistance.  In June 2007, 
the MFA delivered almost $100,000 of pre-natal medical 
equipment to a hospital in Helmand (Refs A and B).  The 
GOE's Afghanistan mission mandate expires at the end of the 
year.  This fall, Parliament will have to vote on renewal 
of the mandate.  The Afghanistan mission enjoys wide 
support in Parliament, even with opposition parties.  Our 
parliamentary interlocutors have consistently told us that 
they believe the renewal will pass without much controversy 
or difficulty (Ref C). 
 
¶5. (SBU) IRAQ: Estonia has been a committed partner in Iraq 
since 2003.  Currently, 34 Estonian soldiers serve 
shoulder-to-shoulder with U.S. troops under the command of 
the U.S. 1ST Cavalry Division outside of Baghdad.  To date, 
the Estonians have suffered a total of 18 casualties, 
including two killed, in Iraq.  The Estonians are involved 
in some of the toughest counter-insurgency missions and 
have consistently received praise from U.S. commanders on 
the ground for their skill, professionalism, and valuable 
contribution.  Like the Afghanistan mission, the Iraq 
mission mandate expires at the end of the year.  As the 
Iraq mission is unpopular with the Estonian public, we 
expect the debate in Parliament will be contentious and 
politicized (Ref D).  Maintaining political support for 
 
Estonia's presence in Iraq will be a serious challenge in 
the medium- to long-term. 
 
¶6. (SBU) BALKANS: In spring 2007, Estonia finished its 
participation in EU-peacekeeping operations in Bosnia. 
Estonia reduced its presence in Kosovo from a company-size 
infantry unit (participating in a Danish-led peacekeeping 
force) to 25 soldiers, who serve in Pristina as military 
police.  On Kosovo's final status, the GOE strongly 
supports a unified EU position on the basis of the 
Ahtisaari Plan. 
 
¶7. (U) GEORGIA: The GOE has been active in supporting 
Georgian reforms as well as peace and security in the 
region.  President Ilves (twice), Prime Minister Ansip, and 
Foreign Minister Paet have all traveled to Georgia in the 
past year.  Estonia supports Georgia's NATO membership 
aspirations and has advocated for initiation of a 
Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Georgia.  The MFA views 
Georgia as a priority country for democracy promotion and 
assistance.  Estonia sent two experts to participate in an 
international investigation into the missile incident in 
Georgia in August.  Estonian support for Georgia during 
this crisis has come from the highest levels of the GOE and 
the Parliament (Ref G). 
 
¶8. (U) NATO ENLARGEMENT: Estonia is a vocal supporter of 
NATO expansion.  PM Ansip and FM Paet regularly speak out 
on the importance of bringing Balkan and Eastern European 
countries into NATO in order to cement democratic and free- 
market reforms there.  Despite its commitment to NATO 
expansion, Estonia has always made it clear that no 
aspirant country should be given a "free ride" when it 
comes to fulfilling membership requirements.  President 
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Prime Minister Ansip, and Foreign 
Minister Paet recently reiterated this message in meetings 
with Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, and Georgian 
President Mikheil Saakashvili (Ref E and F). 
 
¶9. (SBU) CFE TREATY: Estonia is not a member of CFE, but is 
eager to join.  Russia's recent posturing to suspend 
negotiations on the adapted CFE Treaty has elicited strong 
reactions from the GOE.  Estonia is adamant that regardless 
of the approach in overcoming the current stalemate with 
Moscow, Russia must fully satisfy its Istanbul commitments. 
An Estonian delegation met with U.S., Lithuanian, and 
Latvian officials in Vilnius in late August to discuss the 
latest CFE developments.  MFA and MOD interlocutors have 
informed us that the GOE is generally supportive of U.S. 
initiatives on CFE, but wants further consultation on all 
developments (Ref J). 
 
A Democracy Promoter: Central Europe and the Balkans 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶10. (U) ASSISTANCE TO GEORGIA, UKRAINE, AND MOLDOVA: 
Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are priority countries for 
Estonian development assistance in the region.  GOE 
assistance promotes political, military and economic 
reforms in line with NATO and EU accession.  The GOE 
annually sponsors Georgian, Ukrainian and Balkan military 
officers, civilians, civil servants, and diplomats to study 
at the Baltic Defense College (in Tartu), the Public 
Service Academy, and the School of Diplomacy.  In multiple 
forums, recipient countries commented on Estonia's 
credibility in promoting democracy and market reforms in 
the region -- due to its own successful transition and 
accession to the EU and NATO.  Former Prime Minister Mart 
Laar has served as an advisor to Georgian President 
Saakashvili since 2005.  In spring 2007, Ukrainian 
President Yushchenko's invited former Estonian President 
Arnold Ruutel to discuss how to promote political and 
market reforms in Ukraine. 
 
¶11. (U) BALKANS AND ADRIATIC ASSISTANCE: Estonia also 
provides some development assistance to countries in the 
Balkans and Adriatic in the areas of IT, tourism, market 
reforms, and institution building through project 
partnerships linking local municipalities, NGOs, and 
various government agencies.  In Brussels, the MFA supports 
a more proactive EU role in the region. 
 
Other Issues: Cyber Security, Relations 
with Russia, Energy Security and Visa Waiver 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) CYBER SECURITY: In the aftermath of the GOE's 
decision to relocate a Soviet era World War II monument, 
the "Bronze Soldier", Estonia became victim of a series of 
coordinated cyber attacks.  For over a month, Estonian 
 
government, banking, and media online infrastructure (e.g., 
websites, servers, and routers) came under a barrage of 
cyber attacks that tested Estonian cyber defenses and 
proved extremely expensive.  While the GOE suspects 
Moscow's complicity, it has only circumstantial evidence 
linking Russia to the cyber attacks.  The technology behind 
the attacks was not new or sophisticated, but the attacks 
revealed the inherent vulnerabilities of modern, online 
infrastructure.  In July, the GOE finished its initial 
investigation and analysis of the attacks.  While Estonia's 
cyber defenses were ultimately successful, the GOE's report 
recommended further improvements, especially in regards to 
public-private cooperation (Ref H and I). 
 
¶13. (SBU) RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA: Sixteen years after 
regaining its independence, Estonia's relationship with 
Russia remains difficult and complicated.  While the 
countries share trade and investment ties, they have not 
been able to conclude a border treaty.  Depending on the 
political climate, trucks crossing from Estonia into Russia 
may encounter delays of up to several days (Ref J).  The 
relocation of the "Bronze Soldier" prompted riots (the 
largest since 1918) by ethnic Russians in Tallinn. 
Following the riots, Russia put heavy economic and 
diplomatic pressure on Estonia - including refusing to 
disperse a mob outside the Estonian Embassy in Moscow for 
several days, limiting rail and truck traffic across the 
border and encouraging a boycott of Estonian goods (Ref H). 
Since May, rail traffic (oil, coal, wood and other 
materials) has been down by between 30 to 50% - 
significantly reducing Estonia's transit revenues and 
complicating supply lines for Estonian companies. 
 
¶14. (U) ENERGY SECURITY: Large domestic oil shale reserves 
have allowed Estonia to remain relatively independent of 
Russian energy supplies, although Estonia imports natural 
gas from Russia.  The GOE is currently exploring multiple 
options for diversifying sources in the long term.  (Note. 
Industry estimates predict that reserves of high quality, 
easily accessible oil shale will last anywhere from 15 to 
100 more years.  End Note.)  The GOE will need to invest in 
expensive upgrades to its oil shale plants to meet EU 
environmental standards by 2012.  A proposed Baltic-Polish 
nuclear reactor in Lithuania, as well as possible 
participation in a new Finnish reactor, presents other 
possibilities for expanding electricity supply.  The 
proposed NordStream gas pipeline from Russia to Germany may 
pass very close to Estonia's territorial waters.  Speaking 
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies 
(CSIS) in late June, President Ilves said that Germany's 
"failure" to consult with other EU members regarding 
NordStream undermined trust and highlighted the need for a 
common EU approach to energy security. 
 
¶15. (SBU) VISA WAIVER: Securing visa-free travel to the 
United States for Estonian citizens remains a priority for 
both the GOE and Estonian public.  Senior GOE officials and 
the media regularly raise the issue of membership in the 
U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP) at all levels with the USG. 
Estonia's recent progress toward meeting the VWP criteria 
and U.S. Congressional action have put the country on track 
(perhaps) to  join the VWP by the summer of 2009. 
 
PHILLIPS