VZCZCXRO5126
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2095/01 2550927
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 120927Z SEP 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6756
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7242
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1344
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2083
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6052
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0530
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8500

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: South Taiwan Early Take on 2008 Presidential and 
Legislative Elections 
 
REF: A) 2007 Taipei 2071  B) 2006 Taipei 3377 
 
C) 2006 Taipei 3426   D) 2006 Taipei 3444 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: As the presidential election heats up, Southern 
academics, businesspeople and party officials all seem to believe it 
will be a difficult one for both the DPP and KMT.  Party operatives 
in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City suggest that young voters are the 
key swing voters who can decide the 2008 presidential election 
outcome if they cast their votes.  Most DPP officials believe DPP 
presidential candidate Frank Hsieh will win based primarily on his 
demonstrated commitment to "Taiwan identity."  Some KMT officials 
predict that the KMT will win by a majority of 15 (out of 113) seats 
in the legislative elections island-wide, but do not consider 
winning the LY more important than winning the presidency.  End 
Summary 
 
Road to the Presidency: Not Easy for Either Party 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a meeting with AIT/K, Tainan City KMT Chairman Wu 
Chao-yu quoted KMT Vice Presidential candidate Vincent Siew as 
saying the Hsieh-Su ticket will be a tough ticket for the KMT to 
beat in the upcoming  presidential race.  Wu surmised the Hsieh-Su 
ticket, thrust on Frank Hsieh by President Chen, is no more than the 
President's effort to guarantee a DPP win in order to protect 
himself post-election from being investigated on corruption 
allegations that have surrounded him and his family (see reftel A). 
Wu had no doubt Hsieh and Su would be excellent campaigners but 
doubted if the rift between the two caused by the fractious party 
presidential primary had really healed.  He predicted at least a 
partial DPP factional resurgence during the campaign that would 
undercut DPP unity and benefit the KMT.  Undecided swing voters, he 
argued, would never accept an appearance of harmony between Hsieh 
and Su, since the two harshly attacked each other  during the 
primary.  In a separate meeting, DPP Tainan City Chairwoman Chiu 
Li-li stated that some "deep-green" supporters have not forgiven Su 
Tseng-chang and his supporters for criticizing President Chen and 
 
SIPDIS 
the DPP during last year's anti-Chen movement (reftels B, C, D). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In a recent meeting with AIT/K, Kaohsiung City KMT 
Legislator Lo Shih-hsiung predicted that KMT presidential candidate 
Ma Ying-jeou would win the 2008 election because Taiwan people are 
ready for a change in ruling parties.  Lo acknowledged to AIT/K that 
it is not that Ma is such an excellent candidate, but that the DPP's 
poor performance and the economic decline in Southern Taiwan have 
combined to negatively affect people's well-being.  On the other 
hand, Kaohsiung City DPP Legislator Guan Bi-ling praised Frank Hsieh 
as a capable leader, though she would not predict Hsieh would win 
the 2008 election.  Dampening Guan's confidence was her concern that 
DPP supporters are not enthusiastic about participating in the DPP's 
key ideological campaign push -- the September 15 Kaohsiung rally to 
support the DPP's referendum on the UN bid.  Many, she said, would 
be content to express their support for the referendum through TV 
call-in programs, making it unnecessary to personally attend the 
rally, which, she noted, would be a major DPP campaign event. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In a separate meeting, hi-tech businessman Gary Cheng, 
whose company has factories in both Taiwan and China, told AIT/K 
that the KMT vision of Taiwan's place in the global economy makes it 
likely KMT leadership would provide better industrial leadership 
than the DPP.  Cheng himself believes the KMT would better handle 
cross-Strait relations.  Cheng said that many business people 
support KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou because the DPP's 
economic policies have failed over the last seven years.  National 
Sun Yat-sen University Political Economy Professor Shin Chuei-ling 
echoed Cheng's views, explaining that Taiwan businesspeople 
generally believe China would be more likely to cooperate with KMT 
economic policy if Ma wins the 2008 presidency. 
 
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng Not a Southern Kingmaker 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶5. (SBU) Professor Shin doubted that Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker 
Wang Jin-pyng could deliver many votes to Ma Ying-jeou, because 
Wang's grassroots support is not really that solid in his native 
South.  KMT Kaohsiung City Chairman Hsu Fu-ming acknowledged that 
the "pan-green camp" is working hard to split Wang's supporters and 
attract some to the DPP side.  Ma, he explained, had decided to put 
aside the "Wang problem" for the time being and just focus on his 
southern "long stay" campaign.  If Ma's support is sufficiently 
 
TAIPEI 00002095  002 OF 003 
 
 
high, he continued, Wang would have no choice but to support Ma in 
the presidential election. 
 
Youth Votes Critical in the 2008 Presidential Election 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Tainan KMT Chairman Wu told AIT/K that the KMT is 
campaigning vigorously to build support among voters in the 20-25 
year age bracket.  Since the 2004 election, he said, more than one 
million youths had come of legal voting age.  The 2008 presidential 
election will be their first chance to vote.  Wu stated that KMT 
candidate Ma Ying-jeou particularly appeals to these young voters, 
but acknowledged that younger voters are unpredictable, and even 
apathetic, toward politics.  Ma's speeches at colleges always 
attract big crowds, he noted, and Ma has regularly encouraged 
college students to use their vote to define their own futures by 
choosing the next administration for themselves.  The KMT hopes that 
these million new voters, the main swing votes in this election, 
will turn out at the ballot boxes to vote for Ma. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) DPP Tainan City Chairman Chiu echoed KMT Wu's view that 
young people tend to be politically apathetic, many disgusted by 
political bickering and the numerous corruption scandals.  Chiu, 
however, disagreed that Ma Ying-jeou has any special appeal to 
youths.  However, she did acknowledge that youths like to have role 
models and that the Ma could fulfill that role.  Chiu stressed that 
youth votes -- if they vote -- will focus on the "beef" of a 
candidate's policy and how it will deliver jobs to new graduates. 
Kaohsiung City DPP Legislator Guan agreed that young voters will be 
a key factor to winning this presidential election, but stressed 
that their voting habits are unpredictable.  If the DPP manages to 
split the youth vote, she noted, Frank Hsieh would be the 
beneficiary. 
 
Ma Ying-jeou's Southern "Long-Stay" Campaign 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has just launched 
the second phase of his "Long Stay" strategy, in which he stays with 
local families for 2-3 days in Southern cities and counties.  KMT 
Tainan City Chairman Wu explained that Ma's "Long Stay" campaign was 
focused on boosting Ma's support in the South, while DPP Tainan City 
Chairman Chiu acknowledged that the campaign has negatively affected 
the DPP's support.  Chiu, however, is convinced that at the last 
minute before voters cast their votes, they will weigh a candidate's 
demonstrated commitment to "Taiwan identity" and find Ma lacking. 
Kaohsiung KMT Legislator Lo, who has long urged Ma Ying-jeou to 
focus on the South in order to build a grassroots base, pointed out 
that Ma's "long-stay" campaign is his first direct effort to reach 
Southern voters at the grassroots.  The extensive media coverage of 
Ma's long-stay campaign has turned out to be excellent -- and free 
-- advertising, Lo told AIT/K, and has further helped build ties 
between Ma and Southern voters.  In the meantime, the long-stay 
travel gave Ma an opportunity to present his proposed economic 
policy to various professional groups down South.  On the other 
hand, DPP Legislator Guan argued that Ma's long-stay campaign will 
have only limited effect because grassroots support cannot be built 
in a matter of days.  Concurring with Guan, Hsieh's Kaohsiung 
campaign head Chang Ching-chuan nevertheless admitted to AIT/K that 
Ma's "long stay" campaign had undercut some of the DPP's support in 
Central Taiwan. 
 
Legislative Elections 
--------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Legislators Lo and Guan both predicted that each party 
would win two seats in Kaohsiung City, while the fifth seat is up 
for grabs.  In Tainan, the KMT is not confident that it could win 
either of the two seats, though DPP Chairwoman Chiu anticipated both 
races would be close, with each party likely to win one seat. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Kaohsiung City KMT Chairman Hsu predicted that the KMT 
will win a majority of more than 15 of the total of 113 legislative 
seats island-wide, including half of the seats in each city/county 
in Southern Taiwan where the DPP rules.   Kaohsiung City Legislator 
Lo told AIT/K that the DPP is focusing so heavily on the 
presidential race because it believes this is more important than 
winning a majority of LY seats, because in Taiwan's "presidential 
system", the government budget is controlled by the Executive Yuan 
and the Premier is appointed by the President. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Professor Shin noted that vote-buying will still be a 
 
TAIPEI 00002095  003 OF 003 
 
 
factor in the coming legislative elections, but more indirectly than 
in the past, with business interests exchanging support/votes for 
"monetary values," such as profits from land transactions in 
future-zoning projects.  Shin noted that these type of transactions 
are not unusual and can stimulate corruption among government 
officials. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Presidential and legislative election campaigns remain 
calm at this early date.  The halving of LY seats from 225 to 113 
seats will arouse fierce competition and creative campaigning. 
Locals are closely watching turn-out for the September 15 DPP rally 
in support of the U.N. referendum.  The turn-out for this rally may 
serve as a preliminary indicator of the DPP's ability to still use 
ideology to draw crowds, since the DPP considers its support margin 
in Southern Taiwan and a candidate's commitment to "Taiwan identity" 
as key factors in winning the larger 2008 presidential election. 
 
 
Thiele 
 
Wang