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PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2071/01 2530322
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 100322Z SEP 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6721
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7228
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1334
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2073
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6042
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0520
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8485

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: A Southern Perspective on the UN Referendum Issue 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Recent AIT/K meetings with Southern legislators, 
academics and party officials clearly indicate the referendum issue 
is not going to disappear before the presidential election concludes 
in March 2008.  Politicians and academics agree that no one wants to 
damage the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, but that winning the 2008 
presidential election is paramount.  The strong U.S. reaction 
against the UN referendum is perceived in the south as helpful to 
DPP campaign strategy.  End Summary. 
 
A Potato Too Hot 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The general consensus among AIT/K's Southern interlocutors 
is that the UN referendum is not going away prior to the March 2008 
presidential election.  As DPP LY member for Kaohsiung City, Guan 
Bi-ling, told AIT/K, "This issue is hot and only going to get 
hotter."  According to DPP and KMT party operatives and politicians, 
the strong support for this issue among the Taiwan people represents 
a sincere expression of voters' desire for greater space in the 
international community.  Neither the DPP nor the KMT can deny this 
reality or put a halt to this referendum movement without committing 
political suicide.  Lo Shih-hsiong, a KMT LY member for Kaohsiung 
City, said presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's hope in the 
upcoming presidential election lies in his willingness to introduce 
a KMT referendum proposal, something which no old-school KMT 
politician would consider.  Lo is certain the KMT, just like the 
DPP, will take this issue all the way to the election. 
 
It's Just Politics, What's the Fuss: 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Tainan City KMT Chairman Wu Chao-yu told AIT/K that the UN 
referendum issue is all about politics ... and politics only. 
President Chen, potentially facing post-election indictment on 
corruption in office charges, will do anything and say anything to 
keep the DPP in the presidential seat, Wu argued. If the DPP loses, 
he continued, Chen knows he will do prison time.  Wu also 
anticipates "drastic last minute DPP campaign tactics" that will 
hurt KMT chances on the eve of the presidential election.  DPP's 
Guan Bi-ling knows the referendum is a controversial issue, but it 
can also attract and solidify voters.  Focusing on Taiwan identity 
issues is a standard operating procedure for the DPP during 
elections, she said.  In fact, Guan pointed out that the DPP has 
numbers to show that throwing out this kind of "provocative" topic 
during an important election gains votes for the DPP.  Professor 
Hsin Tsui-ling, a political scientist at National Sun Yat-sen 
University, felt the DPP is using the referendum issue simply to 
shift people's focus from the bad economy to ideological issues in 
order to boost the DPP's chances at winning the presidency.  She saw 
nothing new in this campaign tactic.  Legislators Lo and Guan both 
saw nothing in the UN referendum issue that comes close to crossing 
the "red line" or sounding anything like a declaration of 
independence. 
 
What Happens After the Election? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Legislator Guan told AIT/K that, since the UN referendum 
issue is only a matter of domestic election politics, the DPP will 
drop the issue once it wins the presidency in March, 2008.  "A 
president has to be practical after an election," she noted, "and 
everything will return to normal then."  Kaohsiung City KMT Chair 
Hsu Fu-ming stressed that what must be understood is that the 
difference between the KMT and the DPP at this point is that if the 
KMT wins the presidency, Ma will not seek independence, but rather 
will seek economic cooperation with China.  Kaohsiung City DPP Chair 
Zhang Zhi-ming sees the upcoming presidential election as a battle 
between two extremes.  If the DPP wins in 2008, he surmised, it will 
consider its ongoing push for "localization" (bentu hua) complete 
and the KMT will probably have to change its name to Taiwan KMT, 
while if the KMT wins Taiwan will be lost forever to China. 
 
 
Who Cares about U.S.-Taiwan Relations? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Conversations with interlocutors in southern Taiwan 
revealed minimal concern about the strength of the U.S.-Taiwan 
relationship.  Professor Hsin believes the DPP cares deeply about 
maintaining relations with the U.S., but cares more about winning 
the presidency; this is the ultimate goal and nothing can get in the 
 
TAIPEI 00002071  002 OF 002 
 
 
way.  Without the presidency, she said, the DPP can do nothing to 
move its agenda forward.  DPP Chairman Zhang pointed out that the 
DPP understands the U.S. faces many pressures from others to solve 
the "Taiwan referendum" problem, but he said eventually Taiwan must 
face the inevitability of a push for independence.  KMT Chairman Hsu 
believes the KMT has channels to communicate both with China and the 
U.S. about the nature of this political situation in order to ensure 
good relations will continue.  Legislators Lo and Guan both felt 
there is nothing in the UN referendum debate or action that should 
harm the U.S.-Taiwan relationship in the long run. 
 
 
U.S. Urged to Play Down Opposition to UN Referendum 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Tainan City KMT Chairmen Wu Chao-yu suggested that the 
U.S. administration remain low profile and volume on the referendum 
issue to prevent President Chen and the DPP from using U.S. 
"bullying" and "pressure" as a campaign tactic to appeal to the 
voters.  Creating the image of a DPP underdog bullied by the U.S., 
he advised, will only upset voters and lead them to cast sympathy 
votes for the DPP in the presidential election as a gesture to 
support Taiwan's bid to the UN.  National Sun Yat-sen Professor Hsin 
warned that any reaction from the U.S. should target only President 
Chen's actions and performance and not the Taiwanese people or 
Taiwan as a state.  Legislator Lo urged the U.S. to stay entirely 
out of the discussion between DPP and KMT on the referendum issue. 
The U.S. strong reaction, he stressed, runs counter to the strong 
feelings of the Taiwan people and will serve only to help the DPP 
win its ultimate goal of gaining sympathy votes in the presidential 
election. 
 
Comment 
-------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  For both the KMT and the DPP, winning the presidential 
election is everything and all other matters fall by the wayside. 
The KMT anticipates more political antics from the DPP, though none 
may serve to incite voters as effectively as the UN referendum 
issue.  AIT/K will cover the upcoming September 15 DPP UN referendum 
rally in Kaohsiung to see how the "man in Kaohsiung's street" is 
reacting to this issue. 
 
Thiele 
 
Wang