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INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 000906 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KJUS KCRM TD
SUBJECT: TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO POLITICAL ROUND-UP, SEPTEMBER 5, 2007 
 
 
¶1.  In this edition of the Roundup: 
 
¶A.  PNM HOLDS SPECIAL CONVENTION 
¶B.  ELECTION POLLS TELL DIFFERENT STORIES 
¶C.  PNM DISCARDING MP'S BEFORE ELECTION 
¶D. MONTEIL SCANDAL PLAGUES PARTY 
 
----------------------------- 
PNM HOLDS SPECIAL CONVENTION 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  On September 1, Poloffs attended a PNM special convention and 
heard PM Patrick Manning deliver the keynote speech, widely viewed 
as designed to position him and his party for the upcoming election 
race.  A large and predominately Afro-Trini crowd, with some 
Indo-Trinidadians, crowded the auditorium and adjoining areas in 
hopes that PM Manning would announce the election date. Although he 
did not do so, PNM supporters rallied behind Manning's message of a 
positive, comprehensive plan that would fulfill Trinidad and 
Tobago's goal of becoming a developed country by 2020. 
 
¶3. In addition to focusing on diversifying the economy, upgrading 
infrastructure and providing local government with more autonomy, 
Manning stated the PNM is committed to verifying the "integrity" of 
all candidates.  This statement came in response to several recent 
incidents that called into question the probity of some PNM members. 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
ELECTION POLLS TELL DIFFERENT STORIES 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  An August 4 UWI/ANSA McAl poll indicates that the newly formed 
Congress of the People (COP) opposition party, trails the ruling 
People's National Movement (PNM) by only one point. The poll showed 
the PNM at 20% and COP at 19%. However, a North American Caribbean 
Teachers' Association (NACTA) poll taken August 22 completely 
contradicts those findings and predicts the COP will not win a 
single seat in the upcoming elections.  COP campaign manager Gerald 
Yetming claims that the NACTA poll is severely flawed and that an 
in-house survey indicates a close race. 
 
¶4.  Embassy sources claim the UWI/Ansa poll is biased and slanted 
toward the COP for undisclosed reasons. Other media reports support 
this conclusion.  These same sources believe a tactical alliance 
with the United National Congress (UNC) is the only way the COP 
might realize some success, but this likely would alienate the COP's 
Afro-Trinidadian wing and potentially call into question COP founder 
Winston Dookeran's insistence on integrity above all else. 
 
Comment: The poll results should be taken with a grain of salt. Both 
polls were low-budget and were at least partially funded by 
interested political parties.  However, in the September 9 edition 
of the "Guardian," NACTA Director Vishnu Bisram defended the 
accuracy of his poll, noting that NACTA had correctly called every 
election in Trinidad and Tobago since 1995.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
------------------- 
PNM DISCARDING MP'S 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  During the PNM's special convention September 1, PM Manning 
asked the rank and file to support the party's move against Members 
of Parliament (MP) who have failed to discharge their representative 
responsibilities.  A few senior MP's have lashed out at their 
political leader for reportedly using a secretly conducted internal 
poll as a screening mechanism to weed out ostensibly underperforming 
MPs from the General Election slate. 
 
¶6.  According to media reports, PNM insiders complain poll results 
are being used as justification to weed out Cabinet officials not 
willing to full tow Manning's line. Regardless, the effect of the 
poll has been widespread.  Party leader and Trade Minister Ken 
Valley received only a 38% approval rating and will need to fight to 
remain a candidate and save his political career.  Meanwhile, 
Minister of Health John Rahael, who received high ratings in the 
poll, has decided to retire from politics, at least partially 
because of a series of financial scandals involving his family. 
With the addition of five new seats (for a total of 41), and with as 
many as ten current PNM MP's being asked not to run for re-election, 
the next parliament will have a new look regardless of the voting 
outcome. 
 
COMMENT: If Valley departs he will leave big shoes to fill; 
political analysts describe him as an excellent leader of business 
in the House.  END COMMENT. 
 
--------------------------- 
MONTEIL SCANDAL PLAGUES PNM 
--------------------------- 
 
PORT OF SP 00000906  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  The issue of PNM treasurer Andre Monteil's acquisition of Home 
Mortgage Bank shares (HMB) continues to generate intense debate and 
interest in the country, more than four months after it was first 
raised in Parliament by Opposition MP Ganga Singh.  Singh alleged 
that Montiel had acted improperly (although technically not 
illegally) by purchasing some $110 million worth of HMB shares while 
he was Chairman of the HMB, then a state entity undergoing 
privatization. 
 
¶8.  The controversy escalated recently when PM Manning claimed the 
matter had been turned over to the Director of Public Prosecutions 
(DPP), which was not the case.  Manning later apologized in 
Parliament for his misstatement and said that while the Securities 
and Exchange Commission (SEC) had cleared Monteil of any wrongdoing, 
the case had not yet been forwarded to the DPP.  Manning continued 
by asking the GOTT to pass special legislation which would force 
Monteil to re-transfer the shares at no profit.  Using this case as 
an example of Manning's "no one is above the law" policy, the PM is 
successfully spinning this case in his favor. 
 
AUSTIN