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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAIROBI 003761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC KDEM KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: ONE-THIRD OF CONSTITUENCIES 
VIOLENCE PRONE 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 00321 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 02215 
     ¶C. 06 NAIROBI 05112 
     ¶D. 06 NAIROBI 05393 
     ¶E. NAIROBI 03677 
     ¶F. NAIROBI 01669 
     ¶G. NAIROBI 03676 
     ¶H. NAIROBI 03675 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary & Introduction:  Kenya's first two 
multiparty elections, in '92 and '97, were marred by 
widespread violence, most of it organized by the government. 
The 2002 election was much less violent and the November 2005 
referendum was even less violent.  This year, we predict 
little organized violence directed from the top, but we do 
foresee local-level zealots eager to curry favor with their 
patrons engaging in intimidation of political rivals for 
parliamentary contests.  Some parliamentary candidates will 
employ violent gangs to intimidate voters and election 
officials.  Areas suffering from chronic tensions unrelated 
to the elections (farmer vs. pastoralist, for example) may 
see violence erupt under the added strain of the campaigns. 
At the parliamentary level, stakes are particularly high this 
election cycle.  Polling data and the views of experienced 
political observers indicate that the great majority of 
sitting MPs will likely be voted out. 
 
¶2. (SBU) This message lists the constituencies we consider 
most violence-prone.  Out of Kenya's 210 constituencies, 67 
constituencies (about one-third)  qualify as "hot spots." 
Overall we predict a level of violence somewhat greater than 
in 2002, but well under the level of violence in '97 and '92. 
 The Mission is vigorously pursuing public diplomacy and 
private advocacy initiatives to urge peaceful conduct of the 
campaigns.  End Summary & Introduction. 
 
Nairobi: Five "Hot Constituencies" out of Eight 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Five of Nairobi's eight constituencies are violence 
prone.  In some instances, as noted below, this is due to 
Kikuyu/Luo political rivalry (ref A). 
 
-- Makadara:  The constituency is held by a pro-Raila Odinga 
Member of Parliament (MP).  All major Kenyan ethnic groups 
are well represented.  It is a political toss-up, and so will 
be hotly contested by all sides. 
 
-- Westlands: Currently held by Fred Gumo (ethnic Luhya), 
pro-Raila Odinga.  Gumo is notorious for employing a violent 
political militia that engages in intimidation of opponents 
and in extortion, targeting Asian shopkeepers.  The 
constituency is composed of Luhya (plurality), Kikuyu and 
Asians. 
 
-- Kasarani:  An ethnically mixed constituency with Luos and 
Kikuyus in equal numbers.  The seat is held by a pro-Raila 
Odinga Luo MP.  Kibaki supporters will make a vigorous 
attempt to unseat him.  The bitter Luo/Kikuyu rivalry will 
figure in this contest.  The Mungiki criminal organization 
(ref B) has a strong presence in the constituency based on 
the Mathare slum (predominately Kikuyu). 
 
-- Langata:  Overwhelmingly Luo and very pro-Raila Odinga. 
This constituency includes Kibera, reputedly Africa's largest 
slum.  Odinga will likely win, but over-zealous Kibaki 
supporters may instigate violence to discredit Raila.  Such 
efforts would be led by "reformed" Mungiki leader Ndura 
Waruinge (ref c) and ethnic Luhya NARC-K activist Stanley 
Livondo (notorious for ostentatiously distributing money to 
the public).  Both the Odinga and Kibaki camps include armed 
"security." 
 
-- Embakasi: Overwhelmingly GEMA (Kikuyu/Embu/Meru, close 
ethnic/political allies, see ref d).  Features a fierce 
political rivalry between two pro-Kibaki politicians, both 
known for using political violence. 
 
Central: Intra-Mural Fights Among Kibaki Supporters 
 
NAIROBI 00003761  002 OF 005 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Central Province is overwhelmingly Kikuyu.  Kibaki 
scored 84 percent support in his native Central Province in 
the latest credible candidate preference poll.  However, we 
expect some violence among Kibaki supporters competing for 
nominations from pro-Kibaki parties in 11 of the province's 
29 constituencies.  Some pro-Kibaki parties may run 
parliamentary candidates against one another. General 
consensus holds that it would be both pointless and dangerous 
for Odinga supporters to campaign for their candidate in this 
region. 
 
-- Nyandarua District/Ol Kalou Constituency:  Serving MP is 
known to use violent tactics against rivals. 
 
-- Nyeri District/Mathira: Battle of the titans: three very 
wealthy business/political leaders in a no-holds-barred 
contest. 
 
-- Nyeri District/Nyeri Town:  There have already been 
violent incidents among competing factions. 
 
-- Kirinyaga District/Ndia:  A history of political violence. 
 
-- Murang'a District/Kangema, Mathioya & Kiharu 
constituencies: The entire district is Mungiki infested. 
Mungiki rent out "muscle" to politicians. 
 
-- Thika District/Juja: A history of political violence. 
 
-- Kiambu/Githunguri:  At 75 and rising, the highest number 
of contestants for MP in the country (so far). 
 
-- Kiambu/Kabete: MP Paul Muite, while a Kibaki supporter, 
has seriously annoyed the powerful Internal Security, Justice 
and Defense ministers, all from Central Province, all 
pro-Kibaki.  He is considered a "marked man." 
 
-- Kiambu/Kiambaa:  Strong Mungiki presence, a very wealthy 
candidate, proximity to Nairobi. 
 
Coast Province: Underlying Tensions 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Coast Province is hotly disputed political 
territory.  The region suffers from severe underlying 
tensions.  All three presidential candidates have significant 
support in the province.  Five of 21 constituencies are 
violence prone, including all four Mombasa constituencies. 
 
-- Mombasa/Chamgamwe: Ethnically and religiously mixed 
neighborhod of Mombasa, including many Kambas (pro-Musyoka). 
A political toss up among the three presidential candidates 
(Odinga, Kibaki & Musyoka). 
 
-- Mombasa/Kisauni: The Mijikenda ethnic group consist of 
nine distinct coastal Bantu communities.  They are not united 
politically.  Kisauni is predominately Mijikenda, split into 
pro-Odinga and pro-Kibaki camps, but also includes 
Odinga-leaning Swahilis and Arabs. 
 
-- Mombasa/Likoni:  This constituency has suffered severe 
ethnic and political violence in the past between coastals 
and "upcountry" communities.  The indigenous coastal 
community greatly resents loss of land to those coming from 
outside the province.  There are also significant numbers of 
Luo and Luhya dockworkers and Kamba (pro-Musyoka) traders and 
tourist industry workers. 
 
-- Mombasa/Mvita:  Two Kenyan Arabs, both of Yemeni origin, 
are fierce political rivals.  MP Balala supports Odinga. 
Former Mombasa Mayor Taib is close to Musyoka, but as a 
prominent KANU member, he supports Kibaki in line with the 
directives of KANU leadership. 
 
-- Garsen/Tana River:  Two strong political personalities 
contest this seat; one representing the Orma and the other 
representing the Pokomo.  The constituency also suffers from 
 
NAIROBI 00003761  003 OF 005 
 
 
pastoralist vs. farmer tensions.  It has suffered ethnic and 
political violence in the recent past. 
 
Northeastern:  No Longer a Bloc Vote 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Only three of Northeastern Province's 11 
constituencies are violence prone.  The province is almost 
entirely Somali Muslim.  In the past, Somali Kenyans voted as 
a bloc in favor of KANU (the former ruling party).  Recent 
polling data and the expressed views of prominent Somali 
political leaders indicate that this year the Somalis are 
split between pro-Kibaki and pro-Odinga factions. 
 
-- Wajir South: Two Ogadeni sub-clans, one pro-Odinga and the 
other pro-Kibaki. 
 
-- Mandera Central: Two Somali clans contesting leadership of 
the constituency. 
 
-- Dujis:  While largely Somali, there are significant Kikuyu 
and Kamba communities. History of political violence. 
 
Eastern: Borana Land, Kamba Land & Meru/Embu Land 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Eastern Province runs from the Ethiopian border to 
the slopes of Mount Kenya and on south almost to the 
Tanzanian border.  We consider 14 out of the province's 35 
constituencies to be violence-prone. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Eastern Province incorporates three very distinct 
zones.  The northernmost districts are home to the Borana (or 
Oromos, as they are called in Ethiopia).  This region is very 
poor, largely pastoralist, infrastructure-starved and plagued 
by communal conflict, principally between the closely related 
Gabra and Borana.  Traditionally, the Borana support the 
government of the day on the basis that "we are too poor to 
play opposition politics."  Further south, on the slopes of 
Mount Kenya are the Embu and Meru communities.  Both have 
close socio-linguistic linkages to the neighboring Kikuyu, 
and have always voted in alliance with them.  The region is 
strongly pro-Kibaki.  Still further south is Kamba land.  The 
Kamba have Bantu linguistic ties to the Kikuyu and a long 
trading relationship linking the coast to the 
Kikuyu/Meru/Embu highlands.  Kambas largely support native 
son Kalonzo Musyoka for President. 
 
Borana land: Underlying Tensions 
 
-- Moyale, North Horr & Saku: Gabra/Borana conflict, always 
on simmer, may boil over with election tensions. 
 
-- Laisamis: Tensions between pastoralists and farmers; 
indigenous versus "outsider." 
 
-- Isiolo North, Isiolo South: Borana/Somali/Meru mix. 
Competition at parliamentary level. 
 
Embu/Meru land: Pro-Kibaki 
 
-- Meru North/Igembe & Ntonyiri: Clashes between Meru clans. 
 
-- North Imenti: Already experienced political violence among 
Kibaki supporters. 
 
-- Central Imenti: Clashes between Meru clans. 
 
-- Tharaka: Clashes between Meru clans. 
 
-- Gachoka: Mbeere (Embu clan) versus Kamba in a mixed 
constituency.  Kibaki supporters versus Musyoka supporters. 
 
Kamba land: Pro-Musyoka 
 
-- Makueni/Mbooni & Kibwezi: Two Kamba ministers in the 
Kibaki government may use their supporters to disrupt 
pro-Kalonzo Musyoka events. 
 
 
NAIROBI 00003761  004 OF 005 
 
 
Nyanza: Raila Country, Mostly 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Nyanza is home to the Luo community (Nilotic 
socio-linguistic group, 63 percent of Nyanza registered 
voters), loyal to native son Raila Odinga.  The province also 
includes the Kisii and Kuria communities (Bantu 
socio-linguistic group, 36 percent of Nyanza registered 
voters), who often vote in opposition to the Luo.  General 
consensus holds that it would be both pointless and dangerous 
for Kibaki supporters to campaign for their candidate in the 
Luo region of Nyanza.  We consider four of the province's 32 
constituencies to be violence-prone. 
 
-- Rarieda: The current MP and Minister of Foreign Affairs, 
Raphael Tuju, is the most prominent ethnic Luo politician in 
the province who is not a Raila supporter.  He is the 
chairman of NARC-Kenya (pro-Kibaki party) and now supports 
the President,s new political coalition (Party of National 
Unity, ref e). 
 
-- Kitutu Chache & West Mugirango:  These predominately Kisii 
constituencies will feature contests between Kibaki and 
Odinga supporters. 
 
-- Kuria:  Pre-exsiting tensions among Kuria clans, and 
between the Kuria and their Maasai neighbors, may lead to 
violence during the election.  Kuria are likely to vote for 
pro-Kibaki candidates while the Maasai are likely to support 
Odinga. 
 
Western:  Mixed Constituencies & Intra-Luhya Tensions 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Five of the twenty-four constituencies in Western 
Province are prone to violence.  The province is dominated by 
the Luhya, a name given to a collection of 16 Bantu 
communities which speak different languages, practice 
different customs and have different political orientations. 
"Luhya Unity" is a concept more spoken of than practiced. 
 
-- Lugari:  Land settlement scheme provokes tension among 
several competing groups.  MP candidate Cyrus Jirongo is 
known as a corrupt practitioner of coercive politics. 
 
-- Lurambi:  A mixed constituency which includes provincial 
capital Kakamega, Lurambi is historically violence-prone.  In 
2002, a crowd stoned the President,s motorcade.  During the 
2005 referendum, pro-draft constitution campaigners were run 
out of town. 
 
-- Mt. Elgon:  The Ndorobo and Soy clans (Kalenjins) are 
fighting over land on the slopes of an extinct volcano on the 
Ugandan border.  Ethnic Luhya farmers are caught in the 
crossfire. 
 
-- Nambale:  Similar to Kakamega, it is a very mixed area. 
There is tension between the Luhya tribe (Bantu) and Teso 
tribe (Nilotic) and among the various Luhya groups. 
 
-- Funyula:  The Vice-President comes from Funyula, which he 
has represented since 1983.  He will campaign for Kibaki in a 
largely anti-Kibaki area whose voters rejected the 
government's draft constitution in the 2005 referendum. 
Julia Ojiambo, the ODM-K (Kalonzo Musyoka) candidate for Vice 
President, will contest this constituency. 
 
Rift Valley:  Pastoralist/Farmer, Indigenous/Outsider 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) At 23 percent, Rift Valley has the largest share of 
registered voters among the eight provinces.  It is made up 
of four zones.  The southernmost region consists of game 
parks and Maasai Land.  The central-east region consists of 
Samburu herders and (mostly) Kikuyu farmers.  The central 
region is occupied by the Kalenjin (Nilotic, made up of seven 
distinct tribes) and Kikuyu (considered "outsiders" by many 
Kalenjin).  The northernmost zone consists of very sparsely 
populated (and politically irrelevant) Turkana and Pokot 
 
NAIROBI 00003761  005 OF 005 
 
 
(Kalenjin) constituencies.  We consider 20 of the province's 
50 constituencies to be violence-prone. 
 
-- Kapenguria:  Very mixed constituency of "outsiders" and 
resentful "locals."  The outsiders (mostly Kikuyu) will 
likely support Kibaki while the indigenous population 
(Kalenjin) will likely vote for Odinga. 
 
-- Kwanza & Saboti:  Kalenjin and Luhya mixed constituencies. 
 Chronic land disputes. 
 
-- Cherangany:  The MP, who is also Minister of Agriculture, 
is pro-Kibaki.  He will face tough competition from a 
pro-Odinga candidate. 
 
-- Eldoret North:  MP William Ruto, the top pro-Odinga leader 
among the Kalenjin, will contest his constituency against a 
Moi-backed KANU candidate (KANU is allied with Kibaki). 
Neither side will shy away from using violence. 
 
-- Keiyo South: Corrupt, brutal and ruthless longtime MP 
Nicholas Biwot's constituency.  He will use all means to 
defeat his perennial adversary, former Ambassador to South 
Africa Tabitha Seii.  She is a recent Odinga recruit from the 
Kibaki camp. 
 
-- Bomet & Buret:  A complicated brew of pro-Kibaki 
indigenous Kalenjins, & Luhya tea estate laborers against 
pro-Odinga indigenous Kalenjins, and their Luhya and Luo tea 
estate laborer allies. 
 
-- Eldama Ravine:  "Indigenous" (Kalenjin, pro-Odinga) versus 
"Outsiders" (Kikuyus & other Bantus, pro-Kibaki). 
 
-- Laikipia West & Laikipia East:  A history of violent 
conflict between farmers (mostly pro-Kibaki Kikuyus) and 
pastoralists (pro-Odinga Maasai and Samburu).  Farmers are in 
the clear majority. 
 
-- Naivasha:  Pastoralist/Farmer conflict between pro-Odinga 
Maasai and pro-Kibaki Kikuyu.  Kikuyu are in the majority. 
 
-- Nakuru District/Naivasha, Nakuru Town, Kuresoi, Molo, 
Rongai and Subukia constituencies: Predominantly Kikuyu 
(pro-Kibaki), but significant pro-Odinga population, mainly 
Kalenjin but also Luo and Luhya. 
 
-- Kilgoris: Violence between Maasai and those they perceive 
as outsiders (mainly pro-Kibaki Kikuyu and Kisii). 
 
-- Kajiado North:  Education Minister (and alleged Goldenberg 
scandal culprit) Professor George Saitoti's constituency.  He 
is likely to be the sole pro-Kibaki candidate, backed by the 
large Kikuyu community settling in the formerly rural, 
traditionally Maasai northern edge of the constituency, which 
is now in Nairobi's exurbs.  He will be opposed by a Maasai 
pro-Odinga candidate.  Saitoti claims Maasai heritage, but he 
is widely considered to be Kikuyu. 
 
USG Efforts to Promote Peaceful Campaigns 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Mission is funding voter education campaigns 
and strengthening Peace Committees throughout Kenya (ref f). 
Political tolerance and ethnic harmony are themes that often 
feature in the Ambassador's speeches (refs g and h) and press 
statements, which are then routinely picked up and echoed in 
the media.  The Ambassador and members of his country team 
also communicate the message of zero tolerance for electoral 
violence to leaders in politics and government at the highest 
levels as well as at the grassroots levels throughout the 
country. 
RANNEBERGER