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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003609 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: GENDER, RELIGION & THE ELECTORATE 
 
REF: A. ANDRE/AF-E EMAIL DATED 07SEP07 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 628 
     ¶C. NAIROBI 3581 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Analysis of raw voter registration data 
reveals the gender and approximate religious composition of 
the electorate, which differs somewhat from that of the 
general population.  Women account for 47 percent of 
registered voters.  Nairobi has the lowest share of women 
voters at only 38 percent.  Muslims make up the majority of 
registered voters in 25 out of 210 parliamentary 
constituencies (accounting for six percent of the total 
electorate).  The remainder have Christian majorities. 
Despite calls from some Muslim clerics for the community to 
vote against Kibaki, we see no sign that Kenyan Muslims will 
vote as a united bloc.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The U.S. Mission obtained raw voter registration 
data from the Electoral Commission of Kenya as of 28 May 2007 
(Ref A).  Our analysis of the data (Ref A) provides the 
following gender & religious portrait of the Kenyan 
electorate.  Ref B reviewed politics and religious identity 
in Kenya.  Ref C examined the ethnic composition of the 
electorate. 
 
Gender and the Kenyan Electorate 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) A review of registered voter data as of 28 May 2007 
indicates that women make up 47 percent of the national 
electorate.  They make up only 38 percent of Nairobi's 
electorate and 41 percent of the electorate in "mixed" 
constituencies (that is, constituencies where no single 
ethnic group predominates).  Mixed constituencies are the 
most vulnerable to political violence, which may account for 
the relatively low number of registered women voters.  Five 
of Nairobi's eight constituencies are mixed.  Certain 
constituencies in Rift Valley and Nairobi provinces are 
notorious for the "importation" of voters from outside the 
constituencies to benefit a free spending candidate.  The 
registered voter data reveals that these constituencies have 
significantly greater disparities in the number of male and 
female voters than do surrounding constituencies.  Typically, 
"imported" voters are men trucked in en masse to register in 
the constituency and then brought back a couple days prior to 
the election itself. 
 
Religion and the Electorate 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kenya's religious demography is roughly 80 percent 
Christian, 10 percent Muslim and 10 percent other (ref B). 
Twenty-five of Kenya's 210 constituencies (12 percent) are 
predominately Muslim. The remainder are predominately 
Christian.  These 25 Muslim-majority constituencies account 
for about six percent of all registered voters.  Distribution 
of Muslim-majority constituencies is as follows: Coast 
province:  nine out of 21; Northeastern Province (ethnic 
Somali): 12 out of 12; Eastern Province: four out of 36 
(northern districts of the province, predominately, 
Borana/Oromo). 
 
¶5. (SBU) Some churches and a few Muslim leaders have urged 
their religious communities to support specific candidates. 
However, the largest and most authoritative Christian and 
Muslim organizations (the National Council of Churches of 
Kenya, the Catholic Episcopal Conference and the Supreme 
Council of Kenyan Muslims) have simply urged their members to 
vote their conscience.  Given the great ethnic, cultural and 
regional diversity of Kenya's Muslim community, Muslims will 
not vote as a single bloc, despite some vocal leaders calling 
for opposition to a second Kibaki term in office. 
 
Comment:  Ethnicity Trumps Other Considerations...Usually 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) When voting for President and Member of Parliament, 
most Kenyan voters will consider ethnicity first.  Gender and 
religion generally come into play only when rival candidates 
and the parties they represent are identified with the same 
 
NAIROBI 00003609  002 OF 002 
 
 
ethnic interests.  In constituencies where neither 
Christianity nor Islam have a strong majority (one in 
Nairobi, one in Eastern Province and two in Coast Province), 
religious solidarity may become an electoral factor. 
RANNEBERGER