VZCZCXRO1209
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #4772/01 2711507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281507Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4223
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2443
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2726

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 004772 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI RS
SUBJECT: YABLOKO PARTY LAUNCHES PARTY LIST 
 
MOSCOW 00004772  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) In conversations since the September 15 - 16 Yabloko 
congress, Yabloko federal list number two Sergey Kovalev, 
party member Andrey Piontkovskiy, and a member of Yabloko's 
Murmansk delegation to the congress described to us a party 
whose continued stress on human rights, as manifested in the 
nomination of Kovalev, was a source of pride.  They 
acknowledged that a source of frustration for many in the 
party was the year-in, year-out inevitability of Party 
Chairman Grigoriy Yavlinskiy, and attributed his continued 
leadership, in part, to the inability of others in the party 
to acquire national name recognition, given the party's 
limited access to the media.  All interlocutors took in 
stride the increased factionalization of the party, 
especially efforts by its "Democratic Platform" to ally 
Yabloko more closely with Other Russia.  In a post-congress 
meeting, Party Chairman Yavlinskiy seemed almost bored with 
politics, but did launch one tirade against alleged Kremlin 
support for Yabloko's historical rival SPS. Yabloko has 
compiled a long, but not strong, list for its run at the 
Duma, and the party appears unlikely to gather even the 
4-plus percent of the votes it won in the last national 
legislative elections.  End summary. 
 
Party List Politics 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Yabloko's September 15 - 16 congress in Moscow region 
drew 196 delegates from around the country who spent the 
weekend refining the party's national list in advance of the 
December 2 Duma elections.  The delegates reportedly spent 
much of the first day's closed session wrangling over the 
shape of their district map, and ultimately decided to field 
377 candidates in 97 districts. There was reportedly much 
tension on day one between those delegates who worried that a 
small party like Yabloko would have difficulty running bona 
fide campaigns countrywide, and those who lobbied hard to see 
their district remain unmerged with neighboring districts, 
which would ensure a place in the sun for their region's 
politicians. 
 
The Troika 
---------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Also controversial was the composition of the 
party's Federal troika.  Although the fate of Chairman 
Grigoriy Yavlinskiy was never in doubt, his management of the 
nomination process raised temperatures among some of the 
delegates.  In the second day of the congress, which was open 
to the press, still unhappy delegates complained that the 
discussion of the troika had begun at 10:30 p.m. Saturday, 
when many delegates were too tired to participate 
meaningfully.  A defensive Yavlinskiy countered that, with 
its administrative business behind it, the later hour 
provided the perfect time for a calm discussion of campaign 
strategy and the merits of individual candidates.  Proposals 
that debate of the troika be continued at the September 16, 
open, session were deflected by Yavlinskiy. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The most controversial choice for the federal troika 
was former human rights figure Sergey Kovalev. Delegates at 
the congress told us that the choice of Kovalev, who some 
voters associate with defense of the behavior of the Chechen 
rebels and insufficient concern for Russians and Russian 
troops while ombudsman, might further diminish Yabloko's 
already very faint chances of winning at least four percent 
of the vote on December 2.  At least two other candidates 
were nominated for the number two slot, Green Party Chairman 
Aleksey Yablokov and Federal Antimonopoly Service Chairman 
Igor Artemev.  Both nominees withdrew their nominations; 
under pressure, one delegate suggested to us, from the 
Yabloko party leadership.  In a post-congress conversation, 
academic and commentator Andrey Piontkovskiy described 
Kovalev's nomination as an important sign to that part of the 
electorate that values "principle over opportunism."  He 
described Yabloko voters as "Russia's future," although he 
acknowledged that the future they were voting for would not 
arrive anytime soon.  (Piontkovskiy was also reportedly 
considered a candidate for the troika, but could not be 
included as he has Georgian, as well as Russian citizenship. 
He took Georgian citizenship in order to show solidarity 
during the expulsions of Georgians from Russia in fall 2006.) 
 
 
Yavlinskiy, Kovalev's 
Critiques 
--------------------- 
 
 
MOSCOW 00004772  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Yavlinskiy's keynote speech rather defensively 
described Yabloko's tendency to focus on Russia's problems as 
a kind of patriotism.  The rest of the speech was devoted to 
enumerating those problems, but offering few remedies for any 
of them.  On Yavlinskiy's list were an excessive dependence 
on gas and oil, lack of protection for private property, the 
desperate need for military reform, improved relations with 
Russia's neighbors, the lack of rule of law and with it a 
lack of constraints on the powers-that-be, the yawning gap 
between the rich and the poor, which was producing a "divided 
society."  The key values still to be embraced by Russia, 
Yavlinskiy concluded, were respect for private property, 
support for the efforts of small entrepreneurs, and 
protection for the less fortunate. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In his turn at bat, human rights crusader and troika 
number two Sergey Kovalev launched a take-no-prisoners attack 
on the Putin government.  (The congress was covered by 
Russian state television, which showed various outtakes on 
the September 16 news.  None of Kovalev's remarks were 
broadcast.)  In a subsequent conversation Kovalev, asked how 
he squared his participation in an electoral process 
administered by a regime he categorically rejected, argued 
uncomfortably that it was important that dissent be 
registered, even if it is filtered through a flawed system. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A post-congress meeting found Chairman Yavlinskiy 
disinclined to discuss his party's prospects, beyond 
asserting that it was still possible for a rightist, liberal 
party to cross the seven percent threshold to the Duma. 
Yavlinskiy became animated only in describing alleged Kremlin 
support for Yabloko rival SPS.  Yavlinskiy asserted that 
senior GOR officials had confirmed that SPS patron and RAO 
UES Chairman Anatoliy Chubais had received Putin's nod to tap 
 
SIPDIS 
as much as $150 million in the parastatal's funds for his 
party's campaign (an assertion indirectly confirmed by Putin, 
who told Valdai participants that Chubais had money, but 
needed to identify a message that would resonate with voters 
and overcome differences with rivals).  Yavlinskiy also 
dismissed SPS frontman Boris Nemtsov as too dim to realize he 
was a puppet, SPS Deputy Chairman Leonid Gozman as "neocon 
for whom the end justifies the means," and SPS as little more 
than a protection racket for big business. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. No one believes that Yabloko, which won only 4.3 percent 
of the vote in the last Duma contest; was bumped out of the 
March 2007 elections in St. Petersburg, one of its 
strongholds; and averaged about 3.5 percent in the four March 
regional elections where it remained on the ballot, can find 
its way into the Duma this time around. Some believe that the 
party's, and Yavlinskiy's reappearance on national television 
means Kremlin support, which could produce a mathematical 
miracle on election day. Kovalev, Yavlinskiy, and 
Piontkovskiy disagreed, and saw the coverage as gauged to 
create interest in the election among the electorate and 
allow the election managers to argue that they are being 
evenhanded in their treatment of the parties without giving 
Yabloko the coverage it would need to compete with the liked 
of United Russia. The continued, fragmented state of the 
liberal-leaning opposition, and its inability to find a 
message that would resonate with voters also plays a role in 
the diminished prospects of Yabloko, SPS, and the other 
western-leaning parties in Russia. 
 
Russell