VZCZCXRO6929
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #4708/01 2681132
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251132Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4139
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 4545
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2426
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2712

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 004708 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR RS
SUBJECT: VOLGOGRAD MAYOR: YOUNG, PRAGMATIC... AND COMMUNIST (FOR 
NOW) 
 
 
MOSCOW 00004708  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)   The 31 year-old mayor of Volgograd, an unexpected winner 
in a special election held last May after his predecessor had been 
imprisoned on corruption charges, downplayed to us his Communist 
party affiliation.  The mayor instead stressed his commitment to 
fostering a pro-business climate and working with the range of 
political parties.  Despite the mayor's win in May and the Communist 
(KPRF) party's historical strength in Volgograd, observers expect 
United Russia easily to win a plurality in the region in the 
December Duma election.  Some grouse at United Russia's use of 
institutional advantages, especially TV, which a Communist activist 
told us would make the December elections "a farce."  Others believe 
a resounding win by United Russia in December could entice the mayor 
to think about shifting parties.  End Summary. 
 
An Unexpected Communist Win 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Roman Grebennikov made headlines May 20 when he 
unexpectedly defeated the favored candidate from the pro-Kremlin 
United Russia party to become mayor.  Grebennikov received 32.5 
percent of the vote -- ten points ahead of his rivals from United 
Russia and A Just Russia.  However, in a recent meeting with us in 
Volgograd, Grebennikov downplayed his Communist party affiliation. 
He attributed his victory to the personal record he established as 
Speaker of the regional Duma -- a record which stressed honest 
government and social justice.  This had special resonance, he said, 
after his predecessor, Yevgeniy Ishchenko, was arrested in 2006 on 
corruption charges and removed from office. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Grebennikov's United Russia party opponent came in third 
(behind the A Just Russia candidate). United Russia leaders in the 
region were quick to state, however, that they had no problem 
working with Grebennikov.  Grebennikov stressed to us his interest 
in fostering a pro-business climate in Volgograd and in reaching out 
to cooperate with all political parties.  He noted that the day 
before our meeting, he had appeared on TV with local business 
leaders to underline his pro-business message.  Grebennikov said 
that his commitment to social programs required a healthy economy to 
generate revenue. 
 
United Russia in the Lead 
------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) United Russia leaders in Volgograd told us they expected 
to receive 40 percent of the region's vote in the December Duma 
election.  Stressing their links to Putin, they underlined that 
United Russia had positioned itself as the party that can deliver. 
They also stressed outreach to younger voters.  United Russia 
leaders told us that they were personally active in working with and 
training both the Young Guards and Nashi youth movements.  United 
Russia leaders had no negative words for the mayor.  Rather, they 
said that they did not see any fundamental differences between his 
program and that of United Russia.  United Russia leaders and the 
mayor were the only ones with whom we spoke in Volgograd who 
stressed the importance of the business climate and the need to 
nurture small and medium enterprises. 
 
A Just Russia 
------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A Just Russia (SR) leaders told us they expect 25 percent 
of the vote in the December Duma election.  This was well beyond the 
estimates for SR we heard from other political experts in Volgograd. 
 SR leaders also stressed to us their connection to the Putin 
legacy, emphasizing Putin's ties to SR national leader Mironov. 
They also stressed the party's commitment to a significant expansion 
of social services.  While endorsing the Kremlin's national projects 
in health, education, housing and agriculture, SR leaders 
differentiated themselves from United Russia by advocating using 
Russia's large financial reserves now to significantly pump up the 
level of social spending.  They criticized Finance Minister Kudrin 
for being a fiscal tightwad, and called for his ouster. 
 
Communist Party 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Volgograd has been called the buckle of Russia's Red Belt. 
The Communist Party continues to draw on a large store of legitimacy 
dating from the USSR's victory at Stalingrad.  Party leaders 
stressed to us that what distinguishes the KPRF most from other 
parties is its organizational depth.  They regard the KPRF as the 
only real national political party in Russia.  United Russia, by 
 
MOSCOW 00004708  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
contrast, is the party of the officialdom and opportunists, they 
contended. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Communist activists did not echo the mayor's enthusiasm for 
fostering an attractive business climate (in fact, they hardly 
mentioned the mayor at all).  They stressed instead the need for 
ever greater level of social benefits, and lamented the collapse of 
the USSR's social safety net.  They criticized oligarchs, past and 
present, and condemned United Russia's use of administrative 
resources, particularly TV.  Communist activists told us they 
expected the KPRF to get about 20-25 percent of the vote in 
Volgograd in December.  One regional leader said the party could get 
40 percent if it had equal access to the media.  Absent that, KPRF 
leaders agreed that United Russia would likely get 40 percent of the 
vote.  KPRF  activists dismissed the challenge posed to it from A 
Just Russia, saying that SR had yet to demonstrate organizational 
skills. 
 
LDPR 
---- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Volgograd region LDPR leader was alone in predicting 
that Zhirinovskiy's LDPR had a shot at second place in the region in 
December.  He underlined that LDPR's appeal in Volgograd is 
populist, emphasizing the need for more social spending for 
pensioners and veterans.  LDPR is the only party in Volgograd that 
stresses foreign policy.  The regional leader told us that a major 
applause line for the party is the need for Russia to stand up for 
itself in the world.  He said this was directed more at places like 
Georgia than the U.S. 
 
Other Activities 
---------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) We also met with two dozen exchange alumni and, separately, 
with NGO representatives.  Regarding the political climate, most of 
them said that the Volgograd voters would remain complacent as long 
as economic conditions continue to improve.  All expected Putin and 
the Kremlin to successfully orchestrate the Duma and Presidential 
elections to assure continuity.  While concerned about centralizing 
trends under Putin, most were optimistic that the political system 
would open up again in the medium term. 
 
Mayor's Future 
-------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Director of the Institute for Economic and Social 
research in Volgograd commented to us that if the mayor wants to 
advance politically, he will likely have to leave the Communist 
Party and join United Russia.  Volgograd region Governor Maksiota 
has been in power since 1996, the Director noted, and has "correct 
but not close" relations with the Kremlin.  If Grebennikov continues 
to stress pragmatism and reaches out to United Russia, he might be 
in line to replace Maksiota as governor in a few years. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Despite the controls of managed democracy, Grebennikov's 
election demonstrates that there can still be unexpected results. 
However, given his pragmatism and ambition, Grebennikov poses no 
threat to the powers that be. 
 
RUSSELL