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Viewing cable 07MINSK796, CHANGE COMING TO BELARUS WITH OR WITHOUT CIVIL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MINSK796 2007-09-17 12:01 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Minsk
VZCZCXRO9338
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0796/01 2601201
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171201Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6489
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1669
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000796 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: CHANGE COMING TO BELARUS WITH OR WITHOUT CIVIL 
SOCIETY INPUT 
 
REF: A. MINSK 686 
 
     B. MINSK 747 
 
Introduction and Summary 
------------------------ 
 
1. (SBU) The fledging Belarusian Institute for Strategic 
Studies (BISS) held its inaugural conference September 10-12 
in Kyiv.  The conference represents the first attempt to 
gather the full spectrum of independent political and social 
analysts of Belarus, without GOB or political participants, 
to discuss trends in the country.  Participants agreed 
Belarus faces a period of serious changes due to increased 
international pressures.  Most analysts felt Lukashenko's 
regime would undertake adjustments, while they failed to 
reach a consensus on the ability of the opposition to adapt 
accordingly.  End introduction and summary. 
 
External Pressure on Belarus Unrelenting Absent Concessions 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
2. (U) Participants predicted that the EU will rebuff 
overtures from Belarus for dialogue given current domestic 
repression.  Dirk Schuebel, Charge of the EU Delegation in 
Ukraine, announced that the EU postponed a meeting of 
European and Belarusian energy experts previously scheduled 
for October.  He also said that, contrary to GOB propaganda, 
efforts to open an EU office in Minsk had bogged down. 
However, the September 14 EU summit in Kyiv showed the GOB 
that close relations with Belarus were possible with 
democratization.  Martin Butora, former Slovak Ambassador to 
the United States, hailed the launch of the Eurasian 
Democratic Foundation, a rough equivalent to the National 
Endowment for Democracy, to take place in Prague in October. 
 
3. (U) None of the participants on the panel on 
Belarus-Russian relations saw a chance for cardinal changes 
in relations in the short-term.  Mises Center Director 
Yaroslav Romanchuk noted Russia's continued dependence on 
Belarus for energy transit in the short term would moderate 
the Kremlin's policy.  He gave three scenarios: the status 
quo of occasional crises; Lukashenko's isolation; or 
concessions from Lukashenko after Russia accedes to the WTO. 
Kirill Koktysh, Scientific Director at Moscow State Institute 
of International Relations' Center for Economic Strategy and 
Education Programs, said there was consensus in the Russian 
government that Lukashenko should not have access to nuclear 
power. 
 
Belarusian Economic Model Forced to Change 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (U) Koktysh predicted the gradual economic degradation of 
Belarus.  Large factories would come up for sale to insiders. 
 Rather than purchasing them in order to invest, initial 
buyers would seek to resell companies at a quick profit.  If 
layoffs followed, the government would have some level of 
insulation from social backlash by blaming the initial inside 
investor, according to Koktysh.  Pavel Daneyko, Chairman of 
the Supervisory Board of the Institute for Privatization and 
Management (IPM), added that Russia's increased wealth 
represented a further challenge for the Belarusian economy, 
which relies extensively on the export of manufactured goods 
to its neighbor to the east.  Russian companies would 
increasingly purchase higher quality imports from other 
countries, according to Daneyko. 
 
How will Government Respond? 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Most participants believed Lukashenko already had 
begun strategic change to maintain his rule despite the 
coming economic challenges.  Aleskandr Chubrik of IPM 
presented data that Lukashenko abandoned his earlier populist 
policies, having raised salaries for government employees 
well above average wages and pensions.  Valeriy Karbalevich 
of the Strategy think tank argued that the GOB's moves 
against parties with a leftist orientation (ref A) showed 
that Lukashenko feared criticism from his traditional base of 
supporters. 
 
6. (U) Former Head of the Socio-political Information 
Department within Lukashenko's Presidential Administration 
Aleksandr Feduta explained the crackdown as preparation for 
the introduction of a pseudo-party system mirroring that 
created by the Kremlin in Russia.  Feduta proposed the 
pro-government Communist party would form the official 
 
MINSK 00000796  002 OF 002 
 
 
opposition in parliament, with the fledging Belaya Rus 
becoming the party of power.  He noted that the regime 
replaced old-timers in the pro-Lukashenko Communist party 
with younger, more competent loyalists. 
 
Political Opposition's Adaptability in Doubt 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) Many analysts discounted the strength of opposition 
parties and some disagreed with their plans for next year's 
parliamentary elections.  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty 
journalist Yuriy Drakokhurst argued that the weakness of the 
democratic opposition reflected overall social conditions. 
Analyst Dmitriy Babitskiy said that the opposition was 
mistaken to seek to campaign in  parliamentary elections, 
which would waste time and demoralize activists, he said. 
"For Freedom" movement Deputy Head Yuriy Gubarevich called 
for the elections to serve as a platform to position the 
UDF's 2006 candidate, Aleksandr Milinkevich, for another run 
in 2011 presidential elections. 
 
8. (U) Not all expressed pessimism about political parties, 
however.  Andrey Dynko, editor of the independent paper 
"Nasha Niva," said simply sticking to the opposition's 
parliamentary campaign strategy would show discipline. 
Feduta also said participating in elections ensured the 
opposition would work actively and the campaign process could 
inject badly needed new blood into the parties. 
 
Social Support Base for Lukashenko Changing 
------------------------------------------- 
 
9. (U) Russian pollster Igor Zadorin said data show that 
public support for Lukashenko now rests mainly on pragmatic 
calculations, whereas up until 2001 most Belarusians backed 
Lukashenko due to charismatic populist appeals and 
anti-corruption campaigns.  Zhanna Litvina of the Belarusian 
Association of Journalists said the internet posed a threat 
to Lukashenko's propaganda machine, which successfully 
bolsters the President's image currently. 
 
10. (U) Analyzing Belarusian youth after the March 2006 tent 
camp, youth publication "CDMag" editor Irina Vidanova said 
most youth returned to passivity due to the failure of new 
organizations and disillusionment with old leaders. 
Nonetheless, she found several bright spots.  Many more 
youths became motivated by values rather than money.  Some 
joined existing groups.  In the case of Malady Front (ref B), 
youths demonstrated their willingness to sacrifice for their 
beliefs.  Even passive youths became more skeptical of 
government ideology. 
 
Comment: As Usual, Lukashenko Ahead of His Opponents 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
11. (SBU) If analysts failed to agree on a single new vision 
for Belarus, they did reach a consensus that changes will 
occur due in part to new economic realities brought about by 
higher energy prices.  The regime will try to adjust to 
maintain its popular support or rule without broad-based 
backing.  The opposition must also rise to the challenge if 
it hopes to participate in shaping Belarus' future.  By 
helping consolidate independent expert opinion, BISS at least 
made the opposition aware of the difficult task it faces. 
 
12. (SBU) In his final remarks, Ambassador Butora asked civil 
society leaders in Belarus to avoid dwelling on the many 
reasons they could not do certain things.  Butora suggested 
concentrating on improved communication, cooperation and 
consolidation: important means to a democratic transition. 
 
13. (U) Post coordinated with Embassy Kyiv on this cable. 
Further information on the conference will become available 
on www.belinstitute.eu. 
Stewart