VZCZCXRO3932
PP RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #1543/01 2640808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210808Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5138
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 8096
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1827
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 9285
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0177
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 0921

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USID/W FOR ANNE DIX, DESK OFFICER ANE/SAA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BG EAID ECON PGOV PINR SOCI
SUBJECT: ECONOMIC WOES TRUMP POLITICS IN FLOOD-HIT 
BANGLADESHI VILLAGES 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Much of northcentral Bangladesh remains 
under water from monsoon rains that began in August.  A 
recent three-day visit to the region by PolOff found much 
dissatisfaction with the caretaker government, which 
villagers blame for spotty relief efforts and rapidly 
increasing prices.  As they struggle to survive they show 
little interest in political developments in Dhaka, 
particularly the arrest on graft charges of the women who 
have long led the country's two main political parties. 
Barring further precipitous increases in prices, anecdotal 
evidence from the trip suggests outbreaks of violent 
anti-government protests that shook Bangladeshi cities last 
month are not likely in the countryside.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) A visit to Tangail and Sirajganj northwest of Dhaka on 
September 10-12 showed plenty of signs of flood devastation. 
Much of the trip was on a raised main road surrounded by 
flooded cropland as far as the eye could see.  Sections of 
several secondary roads were washed away.  In Sirajganj city, 
one of the worst hit regions, downtown strd%ds were flooded 
calf-deep; a few boats plied the streets alongside cars and 
rickshaws.  Water lapped at the feet of legal scribes seated 
at rickety desks set up on the street outside the courthouse. 
 The view from the building's third floor was of a temporary 
lake whose shoreline was a row of corrugated-metal homes, 
their green and red doors half submerged in the water. 
 
¶3. (U) Economic hardship was foremost`on villagers' minds. 
Much of this was the result of flooding.  At Basail 
subdistrict near Tangail, officials said 80,000 of 180,000 
people were affected, with nearly 300 homes and more than 
10,000 acres of crops damaged by flooding.  The government 
provided assistance primarily of rice and cash grants of up 
to taka 500 (about $US7) per family.  Villagers there and 
elsewhere gave varying answers when asked how relief efforts 
compared with previous years, ranging from general 
satisfaction to claims that they were getting either far less 
than needed or nothing at all.  They spoke in a unified 
agitated voice, however, when identifying inflation as a 
scourge.  Many rattled off prices of essential foodstuffs 
compared with a year earlier, reflecting an almost doubling 
of cost for rice, potatoes and edible oils.  Many expect 
prices to go higher still during the month of Ramadan, which 
began September 13. 
 
¶4. (U) Villagers seemed much more subdued when talking about 
politics.  Many Dhaka-based Bangladeshi journalists argue 
that Sheik Hasina and Khaleda Zia, the charismatic leaders of 
the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, remain 
hugely popular in the countryside despite being jailed on 
corruption charges but villagers had little to say in support 
of them.  At a family-planning clinic in Baisal, a group of 
eight women in the waiting room nodded in agreement when one 
said the arrest of the two ladies would be acceptable if the 
graft allegations were proven.  The women expressed anger at 
the two parties for their incessant street fighting when in 
power and urged national unity, echoing reasons cited by the 
military-supported caretaker government in canceling 
elections and imposing an indefinite state of emergency in 
January.  At a separate village just outside Sirajganj, a 
group of men ignored a question about the two ladies to focus 
on their complaints about prices. 
 
¶5. (U) A visit to Mukundakati, a conservative village of 
weavers hard hit by floodwaters near Sirajganj, appeared 
particularly representative.  The devastation was clear on 
the approach to the village, which was surrounded by 
floodwaters that looked like a vast ocean complete with an 
armada of makeshift canoes, rafts, sampans and single-sail 
junks.  About two dozen weavers explained how many of their 
looms were destroyed by the flood, putting them out of work 
just as Ramadan, typically their busiest season, was 
starting.  They said they received five kilograms of rice 
this year in relief, compared with 15 kilograms in the past. 
They also said that they had not yet received any government 
loans for looms as they had during previous bad flooding. 
Some were getting by through personal loans and by selling 
cows and cows' milk.  They expressed unhappiness with the 
government relief response, but as one villager, Rafiqul 
Islam, said with a shrug: "What can we do?" 
 
¶6. (SBU) When asked if they were familiar with the 
anti-government protests at Dhaka University and elsewhere, 
the weavers all nodded yes.  But Islam, wearing a 
long-sleeved shirt that read, "The Early Sisties (sic) 
California was the Paradise of Surf," said neither the 
 
DHAKA 00001543  002 OF 002 
 
 
violence by the students nor the response by the police was 
acceptable.  Students should be studying, not rioting, he 
said.  When asked about the arrest of the two ladies, he said 
they have to account for their activities in the past and 
that government action against them could help establish a 
culture of accountability in a nation wher% graft is endemic. 
 He and others also stressed that they would like the 
government to hold elections, which have been promised by the 
end of next year, as soon as possible. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Conclusion: Although care is needed when drawing 
conclusions from anecdotal evidence and a limited number of 
discussions, PolOff did not detect among destitute flood 
victims a level of anger that would translate into imminent 
political protest.  Villagers seemed resigned to their fate 
concerning the floodwaters that afflict the region with 
depressing regularity but were upset about skyrocketing 
prices, which some called the highest in memory.  Anger over 
inflation helped stoke the anti-government Dhaka protests and 
national officials have promised to take measures to keep 
prices in check during Ramadan.  Should inflation 
nevertheless continue to soar, the situation in Bangladesh's 
flood-soaked villages could yet turn combustible. 
 
PASI 
Pasi