VZCZCXRO0753
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0611 2710956
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280956Z SEP 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1257
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2802
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0842
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5112
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1361

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT:  TENSIONS RISE IN BANGALORE AS HANDOVER DEADLINE 
APPROACHES 
 
REF:  06 CHENNAI 163 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The south Indian state of Karnataka (and its 
capital, Bangalore) appears set for several months of political 
turmoil, which may help Congress gain more than a dozen seats if 
national parliamentary elections are held in 2008.  The ruling 
BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition is crumbling, with a major 
rupture possible soon if -- as appears likely -- the JD(S) Chief 
Minister refuses to hand over his position to his BJP Deputy on 
October 3 as required by the coalition agreement.  Elections for 
local offices scheduled for September 28 will only increase tension 
within the coalition and discredit its members, leaving Congress as 
voters' most likely choice in a possible 2008 Lok Sabha election. 
End Summary. 
 
To hand over, or not 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) With many observers predicting that national parliamentary 
elections could occur in 2008, the most recent political rumblings 
in Karnataka threaten to discredit the state's ruling coalition and 
place a significant proportion of its 28 parliamentary seats in New 
Delhi into the hands of Congress and its allies.  Currently ruled by 
a JD(S)-BJP coalition, the JD(S) Chief Minister (CM) should -- 
according to the coalition agreement -- hand over the CM's reigns to 
the BJP Deputy CM on October 3. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Rumors have long swirled that the CM may not honor this 
agreement, which could force state elections by early 2008.  The 
inability of the two parties to reach an agreement respecting each 
other's turf for the September 28 local elections has only 
strengthened these rumors.  Clashing business interests between 
leading JD(S) and BJP families also play a factor.  One of the CM's 
top aides told us "the decision (to not hand over the CM's chair) 
has already been made," but said that the CM was very reluctant to 
renege on his promise to hand over the office and was looking for a 
face-saving alternative.  A senior BJP official told Embassy New 
Delhi, however, that he was confident that his party and the JD(S) 
would work out their differences and that the transfer of power 
would occur as scheduled. 
 
The BJP's first taste of power in the South 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Karnata's JD(S)-BJP coalition is significant because its 
formation in 2006 marked the first time that the BJP formed part of 
a ruling coalition in a south Indian state (reftel).  The JD(S)-BJP 
coalition cobbled itself together following the collapse of a 
Congress-led coalition in January 2006, following the defection of a 
group of JD(S) members.  At the time, several of our contacts 
predicted that the coalition was unlikely to last a year, and 
certainly not until the next scheduled state elections in 2009. 
 
How the parties rate their chances 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Local BJP officials have told us that the state party is 
split, with one faction supporting the coalition with JD(S) and the 
other seeking an independent approach.  One told us that the BJP 
"might" be able to win 10 seats in Karnataka in a 2008 national 
election; another said that the party would be lucky to get three. 
(Currently, the BJP has 16 of Karnataka's seats in the Lok Sabha, 
Congress 9, JD(S) 2, and the Samajwadi Party 1). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The local Congress branch is happy to adopt a wait-and-see 
approach while the coalition's members discredit themselves with 
their inability to act like partners.  One prominent Congress 
politician told us that the party's national leadership believes 
that it will win a clear majority of Karnataka's seats in a 2008 
national election.  Another cautioned, however, that infighting 
among Congress factions has already started, as they see what looks 
to be a sizable number of seats available for the taking. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The tensions within the coalition will not go away anytime 
soon.  If the JD(S) does unexpectedly well in the September 28 local 
elections, it may hand the CM position to the BJP, but it will 
intentionally make life hard for the new CM, confident that a snap 
call for statewide elections will give it more seats.  If the JD(S) 
does not do well in the September 28 elections, it will try to hold 
on to the CM's position at all costs.  Either choice will only 
increase coalition tensions, and enhance Congress's chances in 
Karnataka if a national poll happens in 2008. 
 
HOPPER