VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0602/01 2691136
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261136Z SEP 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1244
INFO RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: KERALA COMMUNISTS FEAR LOSSES IN POSSIBLE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF:  CHENNAI 281 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) 
(CPI(M)) and its allies in the southern Indian state of Kerala are 
apprehensive about possible parliamentary elections should India's 
Left Parties withdraw support from the ruling United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) in New Delhi.  The state's leftist coalition, led by 
the CPI(M), recognizes that it is unlikely to repeat the magic of 
its 2004 performance when the coalition won eighteen of the state's 
twenty parliamentary seats.   Nonetheless, the state CPI(M) seems 
unwilling to pressure the national party to forestall parliamentary 
elections by cooling down its dispute with the UPA over the 
U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative.  The state CPI(M) 
appears to be hoping that a strong anti-U.S. stand will lead to the 
long-term consolidation of Muslim votes, thus compensating for any 
loss of parliamentary seats in the short-term.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Sixteen months after a landslide victory in the state 
assembly elections which brought the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic 
Front (LDF) to power, the LDF is rapidly losing popular support. 
Along with sweeping to power in the state government, the LDF took a 
remarkable eighteen of the state's twenty parliamentary seats in 
¶2004.  But it is unlikely they will be able to hold the 
parliamentary seats if the continuing dispute on the national level 
between the Left parties and the UPA over the U.S.-India civil 
nuclear cooperation initiative leads to early parliamentary 
elections.  A journalist who covers Kerala politics told us "if they 
hold the Lok Sabha elections now, the CPI(M) would lose more than 
half the seats."  Two members of the opposition Congress party noted 
that no government had become so unpopular so quickly in Kerala. 
 
KERALA LEFTISTS IN DISARRAY AND CONSUMED BY INFIGHTING 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Media contacts said infighting within the CPI(M) has 
thrown the party into disarray.  The Chief Minister, eighty-four 
year old stalwart V.S. Achuthanandan, is in the words of one 
businessman "a throwback" to the old-style communists.  He fought 
his way to the Chief Ministership despite opposition from a more 
reform-minded faction in the CPI(M) led by the party's State 
Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan (reftel).  The squabble has continued to 
 
SIPDIS 
this day and both sides are looking to the party's 2008 internal 
elections as a chance to take control once and for all. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Our media contact said CPI(M) members feel the Chief 
Minister often undermines the party by acting without sufficient 
consultation.  He pointed to the Chief Minister's recent "demolition 
drive," in which he personally helped tear down buildings whose 
owners had encroached on public land.  He did so without first 
consulting his cabinet.  As a result, both he and his cabinet 
ministers were embarrassed when it came to be known that the 
CPI(M)'s own offices where among the offending buildings. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Members of Achuthanandan's cabinet conceded that the party 
and the government are indeed facing challenges. Finance Minister 
Dr. Thomas Isaac admitted that the government had made a number of 
missteps.  He cited the controversy surrounding the Indian Space 
Research Organization's (ISRO) purchase of private land which turned 
out to be in a protected ecologically sensitive area.  The 
opposition Congress claimed that the CPI(M)'s Forests Minister 
improperly colluded with the estate owner to move the controversial 
deal forward.  On the readiness of the CPI(M) to face parliamentary 
elections, Education Minister M.A. Baby, a Central Committee Member 
of the CPI(M), seemed resigned.  He said: "Nobody would like an 
election at this point, but if an election is thrust upon us, we 
will face it." 
 
INEXPERIENCED MINISTERS, SHIFTING POLICIES 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Business contacts were very critical of the government's 
performance in Kerala.  They cited a lack of progress on 
infrastructure and failing schools as major drags on the state. 
Inexperience is a major problem, said one businessman, noting that 
most of the CPI(M) ministers, including the Chief Minister, have no 
prior experience in government.  Chief Secretary Lizzie Jacob (the 
state's highest bureaucrat), who stepped down the day after we met 
her, commented that unlike the better performing neighboring 
southern Indian states, Kerala's coalitions are ideologically 
opposite to each other.  As a result, she said, alternation of 
government results in wholesale policy changes on a regular basis. 
Business contacts agreed that the uncertain policy environment 
hampered economic development. 
 
LEFT HAS AN EYE ON MUSLIM VOTES 
AND CONGRESS PLAYS CHINA CARD 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although gleeful with the troubles facing the LDF, two 
Congress legislators we met did not seem eager to face elections at 
this time.  They said the Left's campaign against the U.S.-India 
civil nuclear deal is directed at the state's substantial Muslim 
population.  They worried that the level of resentment against U.S. 
policies in Iraq among Kerala's increasingly radical Muslim 
population could drive them to vote for the Left parties.  The 
Congress legislators told us their party would stand to gain by 
delaying elections to allow opposition to U.S. policy to wane.  One 
of the legislators said that the CPI(M) is helping advance China's 
interest in opposing the strategic partnership with the United 
States.  When we noted that we have been hearing this charge with 
increasing frequency, one of the legislators acknowledged that the 
Congress party believes it is an effective weapon and is making a 
concerted effort to use it. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT: The dominant tone of our conversations with 
members of Kerala's CPI(M) was resignation.  The party, though 
dispirited, seems determined to continue down the path of conflict 
with the UPA over the U.S.-India civil nuclear initiative.  They are 
clear-eyed in what that means in Kerala:  early elections in which 
they know they will likely lose many of the eighteen parliamentary 
seats they won in 2004.  But it appears that they are willing to 
suffer such losses to maintain their consistent opposition to the 
United States and through that opposition to possibly pick up votes 
among the state's Muslim population.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
HOPPER