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Viewing cable 07ATHENS1804, GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ATHENS1804 2007-09-10 11:00 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Athens
VZCZCXRO2606
OO RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHTH #1804/01 2531100
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101100Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0176
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHSQ/AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 1066
RUEHTI/AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 1266
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB PRIORITY 0315
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 0320
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001804 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING 
WITH POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS 
 
REF: ATHENS 1785 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis called 
elections for September 16 in mid-August before massive 
wildfires had taken scores of lives and destroyed valuable 
forests and property.  Poll figures are not conclusive on the 
political impact of the fires; most observers believe ruling 
New Democracy (ND) continues to command at least a slight 
lead over main opposition PASOK.  Nevertheless, ND party 
strategists and observers are mulling various post-election 
scenarios, from ND maintaining a slim, though still-workable, 
majority in parliament to no party receiving a majority.  The 
latter would mean either coalition government (which 
Karamanlis has already publicly rejected) or new elections as 
soon as possible.  END SUMMARY. 
 
IMPACT OF THE FIRES 
------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Greek law prohibits publication of opinion polls 
starting two weeks before a general election.  The last polls 
before the cut-off date -- September 2 -- were inconclusive 
on whether the recent fires had significantly damaged ND's 
slight lead over opposition PASOK.  For example, over 60 
percent of respondents blamed the government for failing to 
have preventative measures in place.  An equal number, 
however, also believed the government was up against an 
"organized plan" of arson.  In a last-minute poll, over 70 
percent believed the fires would have an impact on the 
election, but only 13 percent suggested PASOK would wQwithin a point or two, ND 
remained in the lead. 
 
CANDIDATES' DEBATE 
------------------ 
 
3. (SBU) A televised debate featuring the leaders of the top 
six parties on September 6 did not appear to alter this 
conclusion.  Indeed, with few surprises and candidates 
generally acting true-to-form, most pundits suggested that 
the debates strengthened preconceived notions about the 
candidates and parties.  The most noteworthy point was PM 
Karamanlis' open rejection of possible ND cooperation with 
smaller parties to form a coalition government.  Instead, he 
suggested another round of elections would follow immediately 
if September 16 did not produce a strong, single-party 
government.  The debate also highlighted Opposition PASOK 
leader Papandreou's on-going lack of focus on his party's 
platform.  The PASOK leader used his time instead for 
personal attacks on the PM and an all-round condemnation of 
ND in government. 
 
4. (SBU) The representatives of  smaller parties used the 
debate as the only real opportunity to address a nationwide 
audience and showcase their respective 
bring-down-the-big-guys platforms.  Leftwing participants 
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) General Secretary Papariga 
and Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA or Synaspismos) 
Chairman Alavanos attacked both major parties as sources of 
corruption and praised electoral politics that prevented the 
formation of single-party governments.  Neither, however, was 
prepared to enter a coalition with the big parties due the 
"ideological chasm" separating them.  Far-right LAOS party 
leader Karatzaferis, on the other hand, was not adverse to a 
coalition, while Democratic Renewal chairman Papathemelis 
denied rumors that he was prepared to cooperate with 
Karamanlis in a post-September 16 administration. 
 
SCENARIOS 
--------- 
 
5. (SBU) The fires have inevitably rekindled speculation 
about a possible five-party parliament post-election, with 
LAOS seen as the most likely new entrant.  Given the 
complexities of the electoral law, several scenarios are 
being floated.  One four-party variation discussed by ND 
planners foresees ND receiving just over 43 percent, with 
PASOK getting 42 percent, resulting in a parliament with an 
ND majority of 157 seats (of a total 300 parliament seats) 
versus 116 PASOK seats with the remaining 27 seats split 
between the KKE and SYRIZA.  But if, as some polls are 
 
ATHENS 00001804  002 OF 002 
 
 
predicting, LAOS succeeded in crossing the three-percent 
threshold for entering parliament, ND's seats could drop to 
154 (versus PASOK's 112) with KKE, SYRIZA, and LAOS getting a 
total of 34 seats.  The worst case scenario for either of the 
major parties would occur if the smaller parties were to make 
a surprise showing of 16 percent of the total vote, making a 
single-party government impossible. 
 
6. (SBU) Given these scenarios, ND is increasing its efforts 
in the days remaining before the election to dissuade 
disaffected voters from crossing into LAOS territory.  PASOK 
is also trying to stem attrition in the direction of KKE and 
SYRIZA -- while attempting to draw more "borderline" ND 
voters (i.e. former PASOK supporters who voted for ND in 
2004) back into the fold.  With just six days left, both 
parties are pulling out all the stops, convinced -- rightly 
-- that every vote counts. 
COUNTRYMAN