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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001785 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GR
SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTIONS PART I: MECHANICS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: On September 16, Greek 
voters will go to the polls in snap elections called by Prime 
Minister Kostas Karamanlis in mid-August before devastating 
fires claimed scores of lives, hundreds of thousands of acres 
of valuable forests, and billions of euros in damaged and 
lost property.  Political fallout from the fires has added 
elements of drama and uncertainty to the contest, but many 
observers believe the ruling New Democracy party will still 
be able to maintain a majority in parliament, though perhaps 
just barely.  We shall provide analyses of the parties, 
prospects and expected ministerial changes in subsequent 
messages.  This message provides a primer on the Greek 
electoral system and the parties and personalities set to 
play leading roles in the election.  END SUMMARY AND 
INTRODUCTION. 
 
RULES OF THE GAME 
----------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) General elections in Greece are conducted every four 
years, unless called early.  According to the Greek 
constitution, the prime minister may request the president of 
the republic dissolve parliament and call early elections 
because of an issue of overriding national importance.  In 
requesting the current elections, Karamanlis claimed he 
needed a fresh popular mandate six months before the end of 
his term in order to prepare "decisively" a budget entailing 
widespread reforms in Greece's cumbersome public sector and 
to move ahead with crucial -- but highly controversial -- 
changes in the state-run education system. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Greek electoral system has been one of 
"reinforced" proportional representation (RPR) since the 
1960s.  RPR is designed to give a boost to bigger political 
parties, essentially awarding them "bonus" seats to promote 
majority one-party governments.  Ruling parties have often 
tweaked the RPR in order to improve their chances at the 
polls.  Smaller parties have naturally opposed RPR, arguing 
that giving "bonus" seats to the big parties robs the smaller 
parties of opportunities to enter parliament. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The September 16 elections will be conducted under 
yet another "new" RPR electoral law passed by a PASOK 
government in 2003.  This year, 260 seats of the 300-seat 
unicameral parliament will be proportionally distributed to 
the parties crossing the three-percent threshold.  The 
remaining 40 seats go automatically to the party with the 
largest number of votes.  According to the arithmetic, when 
the leading party captures a minimum 42.5 percent of the vote 
it can form a government without partners but with the 
thinnest of parliamentary majorities (151-153 seats). 
 
¶5. (SBU) The formula is such, however, that the more the 
smaller parties gain, the less opportunity the leading party 
has to achieve a strong majority government.  The larger 
parties are thus energized to sow as much discord amongst 
smaller contestants as possible in an effort to fracture and 
divide the small-party vote, preventing as many of the 
smaller players as possible from passing the three-percent 
threshold. 
 
¶6. (SBU) There are no provisions for a second round of voting 
if no party wins a majority.  In such an instance, the 
president would ask the leading party to form a coalition 
government.  If the leading party were unable to do so, the 
president would ak the next highest vote-getter, and so on. 
Ultimately, if no government could be formed, the president 
would again dissolve parliament and new elections would be 
held in 30 days.  Fortunately for Greece, most elections 
result in a majority winner and such cases of revolving-door 
governments have been rare. 
 
ELECTION DAY 
------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) On the day of the elections (always a Sunday), 
polling stations are open from sunrise to sunset and remain 
under the control of "judicial representatives," i.e. lawyers 
appointed by the Supreme Court.  Voters are given a paper 
ballot for each party with lists of the parties, candidates. 
 Voters choose one party's ballot and mark the desired 
candidates from the party's list.  The ballots are tabulated 
by hand but results are reported by the judicial 
representatives via e-mail to the central tabulating body. 
 
¶8. (SBU) By 11:00 PM, a reliable projection of results is 
usually available; most official results are available by 
morning; and virtually all results are available within 24 
 
ATHENS 00001785  002 OF 002 
 
 
hours.  Parties often demand recounts and the process can 
take months, though in the interim, the already-named 
official winner will take his or her seat until a final 
decision on the recount. 
 
¶9. (SBU) By law, voting is mandatory for all eligible voters. 
 Not voting without a valid reason could provoke criminal 
prosecution and other administrative penalties, but in 
practice authorities never exercise this provision of the 
law. 
 
THE TOP CONTENDERS 
------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) In the years since the restoration of democracy in 
1974, national elections have attracted dozens of political 
parties, most of them marginal and of no real consequence. 
On September 16, there will again be more than two dozen 
parties, but there are only five that will essentially 
contest the election: 
 
-- New Democracy (ND): The ruling party of PM Karamanlis was 
founded in 1974 by the PM's uncle, the late Constantine 
Karamanlis.  ND ruled Greece in the immediate post-Junta 
years but went into decline in the 1980s under strong 
pressure from the socialists.  ND defines itself as a 
neo-liberal party with a strong commitment to the EU, free 
markets, and transatlantic relations.  Under the leadership 
of PM Karamanlis, it has attempted a series of reforms that 
have stirred vociferous reaction from the parties of the 
left.  Polls see ND a favorite to win the September 16 
election despite serious bruising in recent weeks from 
unprecedented wildfires that have destroyed large swaths of 
southern Greece. 
 
-- Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK): Main opposition 
party.  Founded in 1974 by the late Andreas Papandreou, a 
Trotskyite professor of economics at Berkeley and other U.S. 
universities, PASOK had a meteoric trajectory in post-1974 
politics and ruled Greece for over 20 years beginning in 
¶1981.  Early PASOK was bitterly anti-American, anti-NATO, and 
anti-Western Europe.  Years in power moderated the party, and 
by the late 1990s it was attempting a "modernist" social 
democratic experiment but lost the 2004 election to ND.  Now 
under the leadership of the late Papandreou's son George, 
PASOK is still wracked by internal strife and has been unable 
to capitalize on ND's woes. 
 
-- The Communist Party of Greece (KKE) was formed in the 
1920s and remains devoted to Soviet-style Marxism-Leninism. 
Traditionally controlling a minimum five percent of the Greek 
electorate, KKE has gained recently as desertions from PASOK 
replenish its ranks.  Under General Secretary Aleka Papariga, 
KKE thrives on disruption and plays a front-line role in 
labor agitation and strike action in the public sector. 
 
-- The Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA, also known as 
Synaspismos) has brought together various disparate leftist 
factions, including former communists, ecologists, feminists, 
and other "anti-capitalists."  A New Left opponent of the 
KKE, SYRIZA claims it will never cooperate with other parties 
unless there is "meaningful convergence" on questions of 
policy according to SYRIZA's platform. 
 
-- The Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) was established by an 
ousted ND parliamentarian, George Karatzaferis, and promotes 
a nationalist, anti-immigrant, populist platform.  Accused of 
racism, anti-Semitism, and sympathies with national 
socialism, LAOS has seen its political fortunes pick up among 
older, lower-income, lower-education, disaffected voters. 
Latest polls put LAOS just over the three-percent threshold. 
Karatzaferis does not dismiss cooperation with other parties 
to form a coalition government. 
 
 
COUNTRYMAN