VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2124/01 2600910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170910Z SEP 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6819
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7264
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8520

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: THE U.S. AND TAIWAN'S UN REFERENDUM 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies gave extensive 
coverage on September 15-17 to the two large-scale rallies launched 
by the ruling DPP and opposition KMT in Kaohsiung and Taichung, 
respectively, on Taiwan's UN bid.  News coverage also focused on the 
crash of a Thai passenger plane in Phuket Sunday, and on a former 
vice minister of the interior, who was sentenced to 15 years in jail 
on corruption charges last Friday.  The pro-unification "United 
Daily News" ran a banner headline on page four on September 16th 
that said "Bian Confirms That High-level Dialogue Between Taiwan and 
the United States Has Once Been Cut Off for a Few Months."  The 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest-circulation 
daily, however, ran a news story on page two on September 15th with 
the headline "The United States Denies that Taiwan-U.S. High-level 
Dialogue Has Been Called Off."  The centrist, KMT-leaning "China 
Times" front-paged the results of its latest opinion survey on its 
supplement September 17, which showed that the Taiwan people's 
mistrust of the United States rose to a record high of 37.5 percent, 
higher than the percentage (29 percent) of those who have trust in 
the United States. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty Times" 
editorial said Taiwan should continue communicating with the United 
States patiently in an attempt to remove the latter's 
misunderstanding of the UN referendum.  A separate "Liberty Times" 
editorial urged the Taiwanese people to articulate their positions 
on Taiwan's UN bid via the referenda and to solicit support for 
Taiwan's UN bid from the entire international community.  An 
editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
discussed the two major rallies in Taiwan Saturday and the air raid 
drill in Shanghai.  The article said these events "indicate that the 
two sides of the Taiwan Strait will not back down over Taiwan's 
sovereignty."  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" said it is time for Washington to 
open its ears to Taiwan's call for UN membership.  A "China Times" 
editorial called the UN referendum a campaign show featuring 
President Chen Shui-bian alone.  A separate "China Times" editorial 
urged the public not to underestimate the negative impact on Taiwan 
triggered by the UN referendum.  A "United Daily News" editorial 
said the two major rallies in Taiwan Saturday have become a 
confrontation between the Republic of China and the country Taiwan. 
An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post," on the other hand, urged President Chen not to take 
American friendship for granted.  End summary. 
 
A) "Taiwan Should Plan Its Next Step Following the 'Big Rally' in a 
Rational and Pragmatic Attitude" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (9/17): 
 
"... Taiwan can totally disregard China's unreasonable suppression, 
but for the United States' opposition [to the UN referendum], it 
relies on our patient communication and persuasion to resolve all 
differences and misunderstanding.  We must recognize clearly the 
reality of international politics -- namely, the United States is 
the world's superpower and it is also Taiwan's most powerful 
supporter.  Taiwan wants to join international organizations such as 
the UN, but without U.S. support, it will make [our] objective that 
is difficult to achieve even more inaccessible.  The United States 
opposes Taiwan's conducting the UN referendum because it is worried 
that China will take retaliatory actions against the island, which 
will thus affect regional peace and stability.  But the democratic 
system is the best platform for communication between Taiwan and the 
United States.  We believe that under the universal values that we 
share with each other, the U.S. government will surely be able to 
understand Taiwan's mainstream public opinion, and it will have the 
moral courage to change its mind and support Taiwan's UN bid. ..." 
 
 
B) "The Rally Is Just [Taiwan's] First Step toward the UN" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (9/15): 
 
"... Even though the Bush administration is neither just nor 
convincing enough [in opposing Taiwan's UN referendum], which has 
naturally sabotaged the U.S. image, the Taiwanese people are clearly 
aware that the key [to this issue] lies in China.  Therefore, the 
Taiwan people must not only articulate their positions via the 
referenda, but should also expand their targets to the entire 
international community outside of the United States, including 
non-government organizations.  In addition, the island's first 
referendum held four years ago and its move to abolish the National 
Unification Council and National Unification Guidelines in early 
2006 had all sown discord between Taiwan and the United States, but 
the disputes were resolved smoothly afterwards following [close] 
communication.  These experiences proved that as friends between 
democratic countries, there are rarely problems that cannot be 
solved. ..." 
 
 
C) "The Warning behind the Air Raid Drill" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (9/16): 
 
"... So why does it matter if Taiwan holds a referendum on entering 
the UN?  Even if an overwhelmingly large percentage of the people in 
Taiwan vote in favor of joining it, this would not make Taiwan a UN 
member.  But if Taiwanese were to vote in a referendum on the UN 
bid, the act would represent a clear example of Taiwanese self-rule, 
which is intolerable to Beijing. ...  With the Beijing Olympic Games 
just around the corner, Beijing cannot threaten Taiwan as it has 
before.  Therefore, the job of warning Taiwan against independence 
activities has been left in the hands of the US, which has already 
publicly cautioned Taiwan against holding a referendum. 
 
"Between Beijing and Washington, the latter obviously still carries 
more weight with the Taiwanese government. Unless Beijing is ready 
to go to war, it has very little leverage over Taipei.  But what if 
there is something slightly less than a formal declaration of 
independence, such as a referendum on UN entry?  It seems there is 
little consensus on what China would do.  But one way or another, 
Beijing had to respond to yesterday's rally in Taiwan. The air raid 
drill in Shanghai clearly showed its true colors." 
 
D) "Time for U.S. to Open Its Ears to U.N. for Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (9/17): 
 
"... The combined turnout of well over 200,000 Taiwan residents for 
the rallies comprised a forceful response to Beijing and Washington 
and also served as methods to mobilize backing for the presidential 
election campaigns by the DPP and KMT, a contest clearly won by the 
DPP with a display of leadership unity as well as a far larger and 
more spontaneous and enthusiastic turnout with a clearer and more 
forward-looking vision.  Moreover, the rally showed that the 
widespread 70 percent-plus backing of Taiwan's drive for U.N. entry 
and the DPP referendum on applying for U.N. membership as 'Taiwan' 
in opinion polls is not simply a matter of passive agreement but a 
matter of strong emotion among a major percentage of Taiwan's 
population. 
 
 
"Instead of creating intimidation, the widely publicized declaration 
by Christensen that Washington does not 'recognize Taiwan as a 
state' seems to have sparked popular anger and revealed the major 
difference between Taipei and Washington and the fundamental reason 
for the opposition of the U.S. to the 'UN for Taiwan' referendum. 
Quite simply, for any Taiwan resident who participated in the 
struggle for democracy against the authoritarian KMT regime to 
realize the principle that 'sovereignty rests with the people' or 
who cherishes our democratic society absolutely cannot accept this 
negation of Taiwan's 'current status' as a democratic independent 
state that deserves to be a full member of the world community and 
not an international orphan.  It is this fact of the public will of 
the vast majority of the Taiwan people that Washington policy makers 
and analysts seem unable to understand. ... 
 
"Unfortunately, Washington's recent words or actions have shown that 
it is objectively complying with the strategic objectives of the 
authoritarian Beijing regime by blocking the efforts of the DPP 
administration and the civil society to protect Taiwan's current 
status as an independent democratic state.  We have no intention of 
belittling the weight of Washington's objection. We believe the way 
in which the U.S. State Department has handled the delivery of its 
warnings to Taiwan indicates that Washington actually does realize 
it is putting up a show to ease PRC pressure and understands it is 
doing something shameful. ... 
 
"Nevertheless, while Washington may believe it is merely attempting 
to deal with a peripheral 'annoyance' in its global 'war on 
terrorism,' the open denial of Taiwan's status as a 'state' involves 
our fundamental interests. ...  We also urge Washington to 
re-examine its approach to Taiwan and to engage in direct senior 
level dialogue so that both sides can gain a more accurate 
understanding of our mutual realities and asymmetric priorities. 
..." 
 
E) "Bundling Referenda with the Presidential Election Is a Move for 
A-Bian to Put All the [Taiwan] People on a Short Leash" 
 
The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (9/17): 
 
"... In the wake of repeated warnings from the U.S. officials, many 
people were worried that U.S.-Taiwan relations would be harmed.  But 
Chen Shui-bian not only appeared to be fearless but has also 
constantly and openly challenged [Washington], demonstrating an air 
 
of being daring and ready to confront the two superpowers - the 
United States and China.  Surely he does not have to fear anyone, 
because the more pressure imposed by Washington and Beijing [on 
Taiwan] now, the more he can harvest from the backlash of the Taiwan 
public.  It will be the next [Taiwan] president that will have to 
clean up the mess Chen has left behind! ...  Did anyone notice that 
the more heated the UN referendum issue gets, the dimmer the figures 
of Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang become? ...  The two have become 
followers of Chen, who is always the shining star in all the 
occasions promoting the UN referendum. ...  This is a campaign show 
featuring Chen and Chen alone! ..." 
 
F) "'Nothing Will Come out of [the Referendum]' in the End After 
Having Gone through So Much Trouble?" 
 
The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (9/17): 
 
"... One should never underestimate the negative impact on Taiwan 
triggered by the 'UN referendum!'  It has not only damaged the 
substantive relationship between the United States and Taiwan but 
has also stimulated Beijing to accelerate its moves to block Taiwan 
diplomatically.  What's even more fatal is that it has taught a 
valuable lesson to the international community:  Namely, Taiwan's 
referenda are doomed to fail starting from the very beginning. 
Given the high threshold for the referenda and the counteracting 
between the Blue and the Green voters, Taiwan cannot even get to the 
stage of 'being unable to enter the UN even if the UN referendum is 
passed;'  the UN referendum itself is a 'mission impossible.' 
Following this round of manipulation, perhaps the United States and 
China have both seen through and understood this game!  In other 
words, no matter how many times Taiwan wants to play the game of 
referenda, and no matter how sensitive the referendum titles may be, 
they are all basically impossible to be put into practice, and they 
are all nothing but lip service.  If so, why should anyone need to 
worry about them?  No one got it the first time in 2004, but when it 
is done again in 2008, everyone knows about the trick now.  No one 
will care about Taiwan should it want to 'bundle the referenda with 
the presidential election' again in 2012.  What does that tell us? 
It indicates that Taiwan does not even have the ability to be a 
'troublemaker' in the future any more! ..." 
 
G) "Take to the Streets and Join the Rally; Do Not Become Beijing's 
Accomplices!" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (9/15): 
 
"... The 'UN referendum' has become the 'referendum on Taiwan 
independence,' and such evolvement has inspired at least three 
in-depth thoughts:  First, do the Taiwan independence activists 
really 'love Taiwan,' or do they simply want to destroy Taiwan and 
become the accomplices of Beijing (how can Taiwan still exist if the 
ROC is destroyed)?  Second, the 'UN referendum' has also evolved 
into an 'anti-U.S. referendum'.  Isn't such a development stupid and 
ridiculous?  Third, Taiwan independence has become a political ploy 
for Chen to resolve his crisis of corruption.  Isn't it pathetic? 
The two rallies today have become a confrontation between the ROC 
and the country of Taiwan. ..." 
 
H) "U.S. Ties Not to Be Taken for Granted" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (9/16): 
 
"... In our opinion, President Chen has come to take good relations 
with the United States for granted, and this is a major mistake. If 
President Chen thinks the U.S. can be strong-armed into accepting 
his views about what will and will not provoke trouble in the Taiwan 
Strait, we believe he is seriously mistaken.  In the end, the United 
States will most likely end up reducing the amount of high-level 
contact with our government on a permanent basis, harming not only 
the government of President Chen, but also all of his successors. 
The United States has already gotten accustomed to avoiding 
high-level contact with us, not least because our government has 
failed to be responsive to Washington's needs at a time when the 
U.S. government has its hands full in terms of world affairs. ... 
Instead of taking American friendship for granted, President Chen 
should try to be more considerate, accommodating and understanding 
about the needs of our most powerful friend." 
 
YOUNG