VZCZCXRO8312
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2876/01 2631238
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201238Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7911
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2981
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4026
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 6274
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 002876 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB 
AFR/AA KALMQUIST, WWARREN, JBORNS 
DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL 
AFR/EA KNELSON, BDUNFORD, CTHOMPSON 
DCHA/FFP WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN, PMOHAN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN 
STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S AF FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, AF/E, AF/PDPA, 
OES, A/S PRM SAUERBREY, AND PRM/AFR LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA 
WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA 
ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
USUN FOR TMALY 
NSC FOR CHUDSON, JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR ET PHUM PGOV PREF MOPS
SUBJECT:  ETHIOPIA'S HUMANITARIAN OUTLOOK - FLOODS UPDATE 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  The overall humanitarian outlook in Ethiopia for the 
remainder of 2007 is cause for concern.  While some areas of the 
country are particularly fragile, the combination of flooding, 
emerging nutrition hotspots, continued outbreaks of acute watery 
diarrhea (AWD), poor belg season rains, delayed food responses, 
current restrictions on trade and movement in Somali Region and 
resulting humanitarian implications, and food insecurity in the 
lowlands of Oromiya is increasing vulnerability of the 8 million 
people, including safety net beneficiaries, identified as at-risk in 
Ethiopia, according to FEWSNET. 
 
¶2. Torrential rains, overflowing lakes and rivers over the last 
several weeks have resulted in displacement of many communities and 
damage to crops, livestock and food supplies.  Flooding continues to 
pose a significant risk as alarming increases in dam and river water 
levels are reported in Ethiopia with Amhara, Gambella and SNNP 
currently the most affected regions.  The situation has been further 
aggravated by a rise in cases of AWD.  The United Nations (UN) 
estimates more than 200,000 people have been affected by floods this 
year.  The Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency (DPPA) 
estimates over 60,000 people are temporarily displaced.  These 
figures reflect estimates and could increase once the joint DPPA/UN 
assessment teams conclude analysis.  USAID/OFDA staff joined in part 
of the field assessments.  While numbers continue to climb, the 
death toll from flooding has reached 17 people, while some 4,000 
head of livestock have been drowned or washed away, and 51,000 
hectares of crops have been damaged.  The Government of Ethiopia 
(GOE)-led national flood contingency plan was released last month 
and flood response efforts are underway.  The severity of the 
flooding to date has not yet reached the magnitude of the 2006 
floods which devastated the country.  While still very weak, 
improved early warning and preparedness efforts have mitigated 
greater loss of lives.  It is too early to ascertain overall flood 
impact, as flooding in the eastern and southern parts of the country 
may occur through November.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Early Warning and Contingency Planning 
-------------------------------------- 
¶3. In 2006, unprecedented nationwide flooding occurred on the heels 
of the drought the same year, affecting most parts of the country. 
The nationwide floods of 2006 killed more than 600 people, 
temporarily displaced 200,000 and adversely impacted the lives of 
500,000 others.  The 2006 floods demonstrated lack of early warning 
and preparedness, resulting in the loss of many lives.  An early 
warning system is in place in Dire Dawa, where more than 300 people 
died last year and although flood preparedness has improved in 
Ethiopia, it remains weak.  A flood risk alert was issued in June 
2007 by DPPA's Early Warning Department in collaboration with the 
Flood Taskforce to raise awareness of the serious flood risk in the 
catchment areas of the Awash, Abay-Tana, Omo-Gibe, Baro-Akobo and 
Wabishebele Rivers during the main rainy season. 
 
¶4. According to earlier climate forecasts by the National 
Meteorological Agency (NMA), the current kiremt rainy season will be 
analogous to those observed in 1970, 1979, 1995 and 2005.  The flood 
alert risk was based on the seasonal NMA forecasts and other 
hydro-meteorological data and indicated a likely increase in the 
risk of flooding in flood prone areas in 2007, the scale of which 
has the potential to be worse than the 2006 kiremt season.  The GOE 
and humanitarian partners issued a joint flood contingency plan on 
August 13 to mitigate the severe impact.  Under the most likely 
mid-case scenario, an estimated 324,000 people will be affected by 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002876  002 OF 005 
 
 
the end of the flood season, assuming the overall impact of the 
flooding will be 25 percent less than that of the 2006 main rainy 
season. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Overview of Flooding - When It Rains, It Really Pours... 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶5. During the main rainy season that extends from June to September 
(and through November in eastern parts of the country), the major 
rivers and tributaries carry high levels of discharge, which 
frequently cause severe flash and river flooding.  Flooding in some 
areas of the country is inevitable when the main rainy season has 
high water quantity and distribution compared to unusual seasonal 
patterns.  Flash floods typically occur in lowland areas of the 
country after heavy rains drench the highlands.  The rainwater flows 
down to lowlands with great speed and force, often without warning 
or time for preventive measures.  While both occur, much of the 
flood disasters in the country are related to rivers that overflow 
and burst their banks due to heavy rains and inundate lowland 
plains. 
 
¶6. The rainfall in June normally starts low in amount and gradually 
increases, extending from south and west to the north, generally 
with a month break between the end of the belg and the commencement 
of the kiremt rains.  However, this year's belg rains extended 
through June and continued with no sufficient gap, merging into the 
kiremt rains in some parts of the country.  The amount and intensity 
of rains during June, and the unusually heavy rainfall in parts of 
the country has resulted in very high levels of soil saturation, 
increasing fears of landslides and flash flooding.  Flooding 
continues to pose a significant risk as alarming increases in dam 
and river water levels were reported much earlier than normal this 
year.  The torrential rains have caused rivers and lakes to 
overflow, resulting in extensive flooding, loss of human lives, 
livestock deaths, and destruction of crops and food stocks.  The UN 
reports more than 200,000 people are affected, over 60,000 displaced 
and 51,000 hectares of crops destroyed to date in the country. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Regional Flood Updates - Just How Bad Is It? 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶7. The DPPA-led joint verification assessment mission that included 
UN and USAID/OFDA staff conducted assessments during late August to 
early September in Amhara, SNNP and Afar regions; the official 
report is supposed to be forthcoming soon.  According to the 
Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS), field reports indicate that the 
most affected regions are SNNP, Gambella and Amhara regions. 
 
¶8. AMHARA REGION: during August, flooding affected approximately 
42,850 people, displaced 12,571, and damaged 20,300 hectares of 
crops in ten woredas in South Gondar, North Gondar, Oromiya, North 
Wollo and North Shoa Zones.  As the water level of Lake Tana 
continues to rise, further displacement from surrounding woredas is 
expected.  Flood water coverage has increased this year with 
occurrences of flooding in traditionally non-flood prone woredas 
such as Quara in North Gondar.  Significant amounts of crops were 
destroyed when the River Megech burst its banks and inundated farms 
and grazing lands.  WFP reports that the number of displaced is also 
increasing.  In Amhara, a regional flood contingency plan was 
developed in August to address emergency and early recovery needs. 
The regional flood emergency coordination forum and woreda 
(district) sectoral taskforces were reactivated to coordinate 
response.  Flood early warning messages have been communicated and 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002876  003 OF 005 
 
 
some precautionary measures have been taken including evacuation of 
at risk communities and relocation of livestock to higher grounds. 
 
¶9. SNNP REGION: heavy rainfall in the western and central highlands 
resulted in flooding and landslides affecting 53,170 people and 
displacing 12,634.  The overflow of the Omo River affected 25 
villages and 1,515 households in Dasenech woreda.  According to the 
DPPA-led verification assessment teams, 4,445 people have been 
displaced to Delegnmore relocation site and in other areas, 4,000 
people were displaced by flooding from the Weytu River in Hamer 
zone, and flash flooding from Bilate River also affected people in 
Wolayita and Sidama zones.  Heavy rainfall in parts of Sidama zone 
damaged crop fields and resulted in landslides.  Sixteen people were 
reported to have been killed in addition to displacements in Kindo 
Didaya woreda. 
 
¶10. GAMBELLA REGION:  according to regional DPPB officials, flooding 
of the Baro, Akobo and Gilo Rivers was widespread in August, 
affecting over 55,850 people and further increasing food insecurity 
in the region.  Seasonal flooding also displaced 24,500 people. 
Affected areas include Itang, Jor, Dimma, Godere, Jikaw, Wanthua, 
Lare and Gambella Zuria.  WFP reports over 2,500 hectares of 
farmland destroyed, with additional heavy rainfall and hailstorms 
destroying other crops in Godere woreda.  Although flood waters 
inundated grazing lands limiting access to pasture for livestock and 
increasing fears of water borne diseases, flood waters have 
reportedly begun to recede in many areas.  Accessibility continues 
to challenge response efforts for regular relief beneficiaries and 
returnees in the west of the region. 
 
¶11. TIGRAY REGION: heavy rainfall caused flooding in some areas 
affecting over 25,000 people and killing several hundred livestock. 
Despite good performance of crops in most woredas, an estimated 
17,532 hectares of planted land was damaged by flooding.  AWD has 
also re-appeared, posing a serious health threat (detailed in para 
16).  A regional team consisting of NGOs, WFP, regional Bureau of 
Agriculture and Rural Development and DPPA officials are currently 
assessing impact of flooding. 
 
¶12. AFAR REGION:  seasonal flooding has occurred in areas along the 
middle and lower Awash, affecting Bure Mudaytu, Gewane and Awash 
Fentale woredas.  According to UNOCHA, flooding from the Awash, 
Kebena and Bulga rivers has affected an estimated 26,420 people, of 
whom 10,600 are displaced in the three woredas.  In Bure Mudaytu, 
4,500 people were displaced along with two health clinics, two 
schools and food grain storage.  Five villages in Abaala woreda and 
one village in Dallol woreda have also been affected by flash floods 
from the neighboring highlands of Tigray.  [Note: the displacement 
of another 2,000 people had also occurred following volcanic 
activities in Teru woreda, Zone 4. DPPB reported five people and 
approximately 1,500 animals killed; DPPA dispatched food and 
supplementary food for six months in response.  End note.] 
 
¶13. SOMALI REGION: is also prone to recurrent floods, which have 
caused loss of human lives, displacement and considerable damage to 
livelihoods.  The number of people affected ranged from 40,205 in 
2005 to over 100,000 in 1997 and 2003.  The latest wave of floods in 
2006 hit a wider geographical area than before and affected larger 
populations.  UNICEF estimates that the 2006 floods affected 361,619 
people either directly or indirectly. Although it is too early to 
assess if weather forecasts are accurate, current forecasts by the 
Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum indicate normal to 
below normal rains next month for the southeastern part of the 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002876  004 OF 005 
 
 
country.  This means that while the chance for flooding is 
minimized, there is a higher probability of weather-induced food 
insecurity along with the myriad of other factors aggravating the 
humanitarian outlook in Somali Region (reported septel). 
 
---------------------------- 
Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) 
---------------------------- 
¶14. In addition to flooding, some regions have been adversely 
affected by acute watery diarrhea (AWD).  As a result of the 
excessive rainfall and floods, numerous families have been 
temporarily displaced and forced to seek shelter in poor quality 
settlements.  Since sanitation facilities have been damaged or 
destroyed, access to clean water and adequate sanitation facilities 
is very poor and AWD cases are also increasing due to displacements. 
 Although obtaining comprehensive nationwide data is difficult due 
to political sensitivities and lack of open reporting, AWD cases 
continue to be reported amid fears that flooding could aggravate the 
already fragile situation. 
 
¶15. In Amhara Region, AWD cases were reported in Oromiya, North 
Wello and North Gondar zones.  823 cases in Habru, 97 cases in 
Gubalafto, and 148 cases were reported from Metema woredas.  In 
Oromiya Region, latest reports from the ERCS indicate a total of 
3,680 AWD cases and 63 related deaths from June 25 - August 21, 
translating to an average rate of 64 cases per day for the 57 days. 
Although numbers are reportedly decreasing, AWD cases are still 
reported in Arsi zone with 813 cases and 14 deaths.  While there has 
been a significant decrease in reported cases from Afar over the 
last month, AWD continues to be reported in Zones 1, 3, 4, and 5 
with the majority of cases in Aysaita woreda.  In Tigray, AWD cases 
have reemerged in the region with a total of 3,040 AWD cases with 26 
deaths have been reported in seven woredas, with the majority of 
cases among laborers in Kafta Humera woreda.  Although the caseload 
is starting to decrease, concern over spread of AWD to neighboring 
woredas is high as migrant workers move from the highlands during 
the harvest season.  In SNNP, AWD cases declined in Gedeo and 
Guraghe zones but continue to be of concern in Sidama, Hadiya, 
Kambata Tembaro zones and Alaba special woreda.  While there have 
been no official reports of AWD in Gambella Region recently, there 
are unconfirmed reports in Akobo and suspected cases among migrant 
workers from neighboring SNNP region. Although AWD has stabilized in 
Oromiya Region in August, new cases were reported in Borena, Arsi, 
East Shoa and Southwest Shoa Zones.  Taskforces for the control and 
prevention of the disease were established in East and West Haraghe 
zone, contributing towards significant decreases.  Although there 
are some AWD cases reported in parts of Somali Region, no statistics 
are available due to restricted access. 
 
¶16. NOTE: In order to stem the spread of AWD, some regional 
governments requested international assistance.  UNICEF is providing 
approximately USD 1 million for operational funding and drugs, 
intravenous and oral-rehydration fluids for treatment centers.  WHO 
has assigned consultants and allocated funding for regional health 
bureau for response activities.  Several NGOs are also engaged in 
community mobilization activities.  USAID/Ethiopia has also 
allocated USD 100,000 in both SNNP and in Oromiya regions for the 
regional health bureaus towards AWD prevention and response efforts. 
 End note. 
 
---------------------- 
Flood Response Efforts 
---------------------- 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002876  005 OF 005 
 
 
¶17. The adverse human health consequences of the flooding are 
complex, far-reaching and difficult to attribute to the flood event 
itself.  Little quantitative information exists on the impact of the 
floods due to underlying chronic health problems.  Accessibility to 
the remote communities affected by the flood crisis continues to be 
a major challenge.  The floods have severely reduced the utility of 
road travel in some areas and many communities can only be reached 
by boat.  In some case, villages are inundated with crocodile 
infested flood waters, but boats are not available in the area. 
Distribution of non-food items and rescue boats continue to be a 
high priority. 
 
¶18. Emergency response efforts are underway by the DPPA, NGOs and UN 
agencies.  In a few locations, existing safety net resources were 
utilized to meet the immediate food needs of the flood affected 
population.  On September 14, the WFP and the Ethiopian authorities 
announced a program of food assistance targeting some 60,000 people 
among the most affected by the floods in the country.  USAID/OFDA 
funded two commercial airlifts into Addis on August 16 and 18 which 
contained 16 inflatable Zodiac boats with engines and spare parts, 
100 flotation devices, 2,500 blankets and 1,100 rolls of plastic 
sheeting.  Of the 16 Zodiac boats, DPPA has dispatched 1 to 
Gambella, 2 to SNNP, 2 to Amhara, pre-positioned 3 in Dire Dawa, 
with the remaining 8 in the Nazareth warehouse.  DPPA has dispatched 
a total of 1,221 MT of relief food for approximately 60,600 flood 
affected people in the country.  UNICEF, in partnership with DPPA, 
has pre-positioned boats for rescue efforts in most affected areas. 
UNICEF has also provided water purification sachets, bottles of 
water guard, jerry cans, plastic sheeting, emergency water and 
sanitation kits and blankets to affected populations. 
 
------------- 
USAID Comment 
------------- 
¶19. USAID officers have voiced concerns over the seeming lack of 
efficiency and speed in which DPPA has responded to some of the 
flood areas.  While early response in July to flooding in Gambella 
and Afar regions took place, subsequent DPPA response activities 
have not moved at the same urgency as field conditions dictate. 
Despite urgent appeals from joint GOE and UN flood assessment teams, 
the DPPA was slow to deploy rescue boats to flood affected areas for 
rescue operations.  Confusion over the standing MOU with UNICEF also 
seem to have occurred (DPPA preferred exclusive consignment of the 
donated boats.)  NGOs have also expressed frustration over DPPB 
regional rapid responses, however on a positive note, Amhara and 
Tigray regions were proactive this year in writing regional 
contingency plans/appealing for assistance.  Agencies are eagerly 
awaiting the analysis of the impact of floods from the DPPA-led 
assessment verification teams.  The GOE has yet to deploy the large 
quantities of non-food items that USAID/OFDA provided in 2005 as 
part of a non-food reserve stockpile with the EFSRA.  Host 
government conservatism and bureaucracy seem to have delayed 
utilization despite urgent field needs.  USAID recommends any 
further non-food items continue to be consigned to international 
implementing agencies such as UNICEF at this time. 
 
YAMAMOTO