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RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #1048/01 2361213
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241213Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6163
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0406
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC 0100

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 001048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: SPECIAL ELECTION WILL TEST GOAM'S DEMOCRATIC 
COMMITMENT AND OPPOSITION LEADER'S MOMENTUM 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 984 B) YEREVAN 753 
 
YEREVAN 00001048  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The August 26 race to fill the District 15 
parliamentary seat may be a small harbinger of Armenian 
authorities' commitment to election integrity, looking ahead 
to 
the 2008 presidential election.  The race will also either 
strengthen or deal a setback to Heritage Party leader Raffi 
Hovannisian's emerging status as the rising star of Armenia's 
opposition.  The government declined to accredit U.S. 
diplomats 
or the USAID-funded IFES election specialists to observe the 
election, though a U.S.-funded domestic NGO was granted 
credentials and will have observers in every precinct.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) With only a few days left until the special election 
for 
TEC 15, Poloff visited Talin, the largest town in the 
district, 
and its surrounding villages to talk to the candidates, gauge 
the sentiments of voters and learn what election officials 
are 
doing to prevent a repeat of May's faulty election. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶3. (U) District 15 is a predominantly rural and 
poverty-stricken 
area in northwestern Armenia that abuts the closed 
international 
border with Turkey.  In May, village elders and other public 
officials were accused of intimidation at the polls, and the 
chairman of one precinct electoral commission (PEC) is 
currently 
serving an 18-month prison sentence for fraud.  Winning with 
a 
declared margin of less than one percent in a majoritarian 
race 
that authorities privately acknowledge was riddled with 
fraud, 
Republican Candidate Khachik Manukyan succumbed to pressure 
to 
withdraw from his parliamentary seat, forcing a special 
election 
in the district on August 26 (See Ref B).  Six candidates are 
now vying for the opportunity to represent the almost 60,000 
voters of the 15th District in the National Assembly. 
 
-------------- 
WHO'S RUNNING? 
-------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The cast of characters for thee special election is 
mostly unchanged from May, with the notable exception of 
national opposition figure Raffi Hovannisian.  Mnatsakan 
Mnatsakanyan, who was Prosperous Armenia's candidate and made 
a 
strong showing in May, seems to have strong support in Talin. 
 
Prosperous Armenia's coalition agreement with the Republican 
Party means that the party is now barred from overtly 
supporting 
its former candidate, who is now running as an independent 
against his Republican Party rival.  Mnatsakanyan believes he 
should have won in May, and is doing all he can to discomfit 
his 
Republican opponent. In a classic "dirty tricks" ploy, 
Mnatsakanyan lined up two locals who coincidentally shared 
the 
same name as the Republican candidate, one a small farmer and 
another a shoemaker, and persuaded them to register as 
candidates as well.  These sound-alike candidates' names were 
withdrawn before the ballots were printed, however. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Khachik Manukyan, the same Republican candidate who 
was forced to withdraw from parliament following May's flawed 
election, is running again, this time on what he calls "an 
anti- 
corruption platform."  Manukyan claims that his withdrawal 
and 
submission to a new public poll somehow proves that he could 
not 
 
YEREVAN 00001048  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
be corrupt.  On a visit to nearby Ashnak village, we found 
voters skeptical of this argument and generally uncomfortable 
with Manukyans candidacy after the fraud perpetrated on his 
behalf. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The big change from the May election is the 
addition 
of Heritage Party chairman Raffi Hovannisian to the field. 
Hovannisian won a proportional seat in Parliament in May, and 
 
is attempting to build on his popularity following that race 
to 
secure an eighth seat in the National Assembly for his party 
(Ref A).  Central Election Commission data shows that 
Hovannisian's party polled well in the district on May 12. 
According to Heritage Party representative Tigran Sargsyan, 
the 
party "has widespread support in the region (and) people are 
excited about his candidacy." Sargsyan pointed out that 
Hovannisian enjoys a natural support base in District 15 
because 
of his Armenian Diaspora roots; most of the residents of the 
district are descendants of those Armenians that once fled 
the 
massacres perpetrated in the Ottoman Empire during the First 
World War.  For his part, Mnatsakanyan has criticized 
Hovannisian's entry into the local race, stating that the 
Heritage Party chairman "is already a deputy.  Why should he 
run?" 
 
-------------------------- 
LOCAL MEDIA?  WHAT'S THAT? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) A significant factor in the campaign is the absence 
of 
any local mass media.  While Armenian state television and 
radio 
channels are received, the lack of local newspapers, or radio 
or 
television stations that reach the district has hampered many 
of 
the "easier" campaign methods the candidates could have 
employed.  According to territorial election commission (TEC) 
Chairman Hovik Asatryan, the lack of local media "likely 
contributed" to the lack of a publicized face-to-face debate 
amongst the candidates. 
 
------------------------ 
ADAPTING CAMPAIGN STYLES 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In Talin and some surrounding villages, we learned 
that the strategies employed by the three principal 
candidates 
to garner support have been quite different from those used 
earlier this year.  Mnatsakanyans supporters have covered 
village walls with his campaign posters, and he told us he 
has 
been spending a considerable amount of time building his base 
in 
Talin and surrounding villages.  Hovannisian, famous for his 
colorful bus that drove through hundreds of villages during 
the 
spring campaign, has abandoned that tactic in favor of 
door-to- 
door canvassing.  Hovannisian has been seen speaking to 
farmers 
in fields and helping women carry water from wells. Khachik 
Manukyan told us that his own campaign has used party- 
commissioned poll data to locate areas in the district where 
his 
support is weak.  He has attempted to emulate Hovannisian in 
joining villagers in local pastimes.  We heard, however, that 
when Manukyan sat down to play cards with some elderly 
gentlemen 
in the village center, he was met with more jeers than 
cheers. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
WILL THE ELECTION BE BETTER THIS TIME? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The territorial election commission (TEC) members 
with 
whom we spoke indicated that they are keen to ensure that the 
fraud that plagued May's poll will not be repeated.  The TEC 
chairman cited the conviction and sentencing of a PEC 
chairman 
 
YEREVAN 00001048  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
in the district as a deterrent to fraud.  Nevertheless, 
District 
15 has more precincts than any other electoral district (84), 
which makes it difficult to monitor every polling place on 
Election Day.  The candidates plan to send proxies to each 
precinct to ensure that voters are not coached, and that 
ballots 
are counted fairly. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Nevertheless, the recent visit of Deputy Prime 
Minister and Minister for Territorial Administration Hovik 
Abrahamian to the district has caused concern among 
opposition 
contenders.  According to Heritage Party campaign workers, 
several local mayors who met with Abrahamian reported that 
the 
Deputy Prime Minister reminded those in attendance that the 
meager stipends the central government sends to the 
localities 
would not be apportioned until after the election.  This, 
according to both the Hovannisian and Mnatsakanyan camps, 
amounted to a veiled threat that the Republican-dominated 
central government would penalize villages that do not vote 
for 
Manukyan.  The Hovannisian and Mnatsakanyan campaigns claim 
they 
have worked overtime to allay village fears of voting against 
Manukyan. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
OBSERVERS, CREDENTIALS AND BEARS! OH MY! 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) There is no formal international observation 
effort 
for this election. This arises partly from the modest formal 
significance of this race (one seat out of 131 in 
parliament), 
and partly from the general August somnolence that plagues 
the 
local diplomatic corps and international organizations.  Upon 
learning that OSCE had no plans to do anything, we tried, to 
energize like-minded diplomats to mount a modest ad hoc 
effort 
to observe the election.  None of the other embassies were 
willing to request credentials or participate in observation 
teams. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Post requested Central Election Commission 
accreditation for six emboffs to serve as election observers, 
but the CEC denied this.  The CEC chairman justified the 
denial 
with a legalistic argument that we did not apply early 
enough. 
He protested that he would have preferred to approve our 
request, but his hands were tied.  The accreditation request 
from USAID-funded election assistance implementer IFES met a 
similar fate.  The CEC chairman volunteered to squire emboffs 
and/or the IFES head around to various polling stations on 
Election Day as his guests.  DCM now plans to accept the 
chairman's offer, while poloffs will also travel the area to 
see 
what can be seen without entering the polling places. 
 
¶13.  (U) The USAID-funded domestic election observation NGO 
"It's Your Choice" (IYC) was granted CEC accreditation, and 
plans to deploy two-person, Yerevan-based observation teams 
to 
every one of the 84 polling places.  Separately, the American 
Bar Association/Rule of Law Institute, another USAID 
implementer, will also reprise its election day legal 
assistance 
van to the region, to take voter complaints about 
irregularities 
and help voters prepare any official fraud claims that they 
may 
wish to file with authorities.  The ABA/ROLI election fraud 
hotline will also operate. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) While the rehashing of the Manukyan-Mnatsakanyan 
rivalry seems to be on the minds of voters, District 15's 
three- 
way race is noteworthy for Raffi Hovannisian's involvement 
and 
for the clues it may offer to the prospects for a fair 
 
YEREVAN 00001048  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
electoral 
process in Armenias Presidential election next February. 
Hovannisian is in the race to build on his and his party's 
burgeoning popularity and, in his own words, "to reclaim step- 
by-step, day-by-day, those votes stolen from us." It will be 
interesting to see if the Heritage Party chairman's strategy 
of 
bringing his national following to this small backwater of 
rural 
Armenia helps boost his presidential aspirations.  Regardless 
of 
who wins, however, this is the CEC's opportunity to clean up 
some of the ugly aspects of May's election, and many in and 
out 
of Armenia will be taking notice of how it does.  END 
COMMENT. 
PERINA