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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 003538 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/03/07-1 
 
 
Index: 
 
(1) US State Department deputy spokesman urges Japan to extend 
antiterrorism law, seeks to check DPJ 
 
(2) Inward-looking trend growing in FTA talks: Coordinating views on 
agricultural liberalization becoming difficult 
 
(3) Interview with Shuntaro Torigoe, journalist: Akagi made a 
scapegoat 
 
(4) Opposition camp might use censure motions to force the prime 
minister into dissolving the Lower House 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) US State Department deputy spokesman urges Japan to extend 
antiterrorism law, seeks to check DPJ 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) 
August 2, 2007 
 
Masaya Oikawa, Washington 
 
At a press conference on Aug. 1, US State Department Deputy 
Spokesman Tom Casey strongly urged Japan to extend its Antiterrorism 
Special Measures Law, which will expire in November. He stated: 
 
"It is clear that cooperation with the Japanese government has been 
well in fighting terrorism. We hope the law will be revised so that 
Japan and the US will be able to continue carrying out various 
antiterrorism measures." 
 
Ichiro Ozawa, president of Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), 
which became the largest force in the House of Councillor, has 
expressed opposition to the extension of the law. Therefore, Casey's 
comment was aimed at seeking to constrain the DPJ's moves. 
 
Casey said: 
 
"What to do with individual bills is an issue the Japanese people 
decide. The Japanese government understands well that Japan may 
sustain damage from terrorism and that it was exposed to the threat 
of terrorist attacks and even attacked by terrorists. We have no 
doubts that the Japanese government and the United States will 
cooperate on the terrorist problem." 
 
(2) Inward-looking trend growing in FTA talks: Coordinating views on 
agricultural liberalization becoming difficult 
 
NIKKEI (Page 5) (Slightly abridged) 
August 2, 2007 
 
Faced with globalization and a declining birthrate at home, Japan is 
finding its trade and agricultural strategies - specifically, 
accelerating trade talks and strengthening the competitiveness of 
domestic agriculture -- have begun faltering due to the crushing 
defeat of the ruling parties in the recent Upper House election. The 
election result could usher in stronger domestic calls for further 
protection of agriculture, which could stall trade talks. 
Agriculture Minister Norihiko Akagi was scheduled to meet with 
United States Trade Representative Schwab during his visit to the US 
 
TOKYO 00003538  002 OF 007 
 
 
starting on August 2, but the day before, he resigned his post. 
Japan's trade and agricultural strategies, now becoming increasingly 
inward-looking, reflect the beginnings of a Japan adrift. 
 
When the defeat of the ruling parties became certain, business 
leaders unanimously voiced their concern over ongoing trade talks 
stagnating, with Fujio Mitarai, chairman of the Japan Business 
Federation (Nippon Keidanren), noting, "Trade talks will require 
talks between the ruling and opposition parties"; and Masamitsu 
Sakurai, representative director of the Japan Association of 
Corporate Executives (Keizai Doyukai), saying, "I am concerned to 
what extent the election result will have an impact on the talks." 
Behind their remarks is the perception that a growing trend of 
protectionism toward domestic farmers will hinder the government's 
efforts to sign economic partnership agreements (EPA) with other 
countries, as one senior Nippon Keidanren officer put it. 
 
Spreading view seeking agricultural protection 
 
The LDP advocated in the Upper House election campaign the 
strengthening of competitiveness through nurturing large-scale 
farming, while the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) proposed 
establishing an income compensation system targeting all farm 
households. The DPJ grabbed seats in single-seat constituencies, 
where it had done badly in previous elections. Unless coordination 
between the ruling and opposition camps goes smoothly, Japan would 
not be able to make concessions in this sector, causing stagnation 
in the FTA talks. 
 
The ordeal is soon to come. The government will hold EPA talks with 
Australia starting on August 6. In the talks, Australia, an 
agricultural power, is expected to ask Japan to scrap tariffs on 
agricultural products, including beef and dairy products, on which 
Japan levies high tariffs. Japan was supposed to set the date to 
open the talks for August in order to avoid their impact on the 
Upper House election, according to a government source. "Now that 
things have come to this pass, Japan must face the talks with its 
basic stance remaining shaky," the same source said. Economy, Trade 
and Industry (METI) Minister Akira Amari warned, "I want the 
opposition parties to refrain from opposing for the sake of 
opposing." However, EPAs require ratification by the Lower and Upper 
Houses. Since the opposition camp has a majority in the Upper House, 
it is virtually tantamount to a ruling camp. METI officials and 
officials of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 
have started preparations to give briefings to the DPJ, saying, "We 
need to obtain understanding from the opposition parties." 
 
Views calling for expansion of agricultural protection are growing 
in the LDP as well. LDP lawmaker Toshio Yamada, former senior 
managing director of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives 
(Zenchu), who was for the first time elected in the Upper House 
election this time, emphatically said, "In order to win in the next 
election, it is necessary to establish a subsidy system that gives 
consideration to the lives of small-scale farmers." 
 
Passive damages immense 
 
What impact will a possible stagnation of EPA talks with Australia 
and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have on the 
Japanese economy? The Mitsubishi Research Center has estimated that 
passive damage Japan would incur from a one-year delay in the 
enactment of an EPA with those nations would reach approximately 1 
 
TOKYO 00003538  003 OF 007 
 
 
trillion yen, depriving 250,000 people of job opportunities. 
 
According to the World Trade Organization statistics, the number of 
FTAs signed across the world reached 141 as of March. The number has 
doubled over about six years since 2000. How far will the ruling and 
opposition parties be able to promote free trade and agricultural 
reform? If they mismanage the EPA policy, the tab they have to pick 
up in the future would be enormous. 
 
(3) Interview with Shuntaro Torigoe, journalist: Akagi made a 
scapegoat 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 2, 2008 
 
-- How do you evaluate the resignation of former Agriculture, 
Forestry and Fisheries Minister Norihiko Akagi to take 
responsibility for the ruling coalition's crushing defeat in the 
July 29 House of Councillors election? 
 
Members in the LDP and the media have criticized him (over his 
office expense scandals) as the main cause for the election defeat. 
Mr. Akagi, unable to resist such a trend, must have judged it 
necessary to take responsibility. 
 
-- Why did his resignation come after the election? 
 
It is probably because the election result was more devastating than 
the LDP may have expected. An atmosphere of laying the blame on 
someone swept across the party after the election. Mr. Akagi was 
made a kind of scapegoat. It is strange to place the entire 
responsibility on Mr. Akagi. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must be held 
responsible for having appointed him, but he apparently does not 
care about it. 
 
-- Politics-and-money scandals have cropped up in succession. 
 
This is attributable to there having been no change of government. 
If there is a change of government, it should be possible for the 
new government to expose the corruption that the former 
administration had festered inside the organization and drive it 
out. Central government agencies also should have a keener sense of 
tension. In order to disclose information, a change of government is 
an essential means. 
 
-- How do you view the historic defeat of the Liberal Democratic 
Party? 
 
The July 29 election was an opportunity for the voters to judge the 
Abe administration. The election outcome must not be dismissed only 
with the removal of Mr. Akagi. Mr. Abe asked the voters to "choose 
Abe or (Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro) Ozawa." 
So, it should be considered better from a common-sense stand that 
for the prime minister to step down to take responsibility. He is 
thus irresponsible as a leader. In addition, Mr. Abe's proposal for 
amending the Constitutional has a hazardous nature, and he has 
stressed only a growth-oriented economic policy without giving 
consideration to the people's lives. These three points can be 
listed as the main reasons for the LDP's defeat in the election. 
 
-- What impression did you have of the election campaign? 
 
 
TOKYO 00003538  004 OF 007 
 
 
Mr. Abe frequently dodged subjects in replying to my questions. He 
did so when I asked in a special election program, "Do you think the 
voters selected Mr. Ozawa?" He often gives incoherent replies 
because he is unable to flexibly reply to unexpected questions. He 
probably has yet to fully develop his skills as a politician. I also 
recall Mr. Abe crying out that "we must win!" This remark must have 
been based on the premise they would lose the election. I thought at 
that time that the LDP would be defeated. 
 
-- Why do you think Prime Minister Abe decided to stay in power 
despite criticism voiced even within the LDP? 
 
Mr. Abe believes that he was defeated because of the pension problem 
and a series of scandals involving cabinet ministers. He never takes 
the view that voters rejected the task of constitutional revision he 
took up in the first stage of the election campaign. That is why he 
still says: "I will do what I want to do." 
 
-- What is your prediction about the future of the political world? 
 
Mr. Abe is eager to make arrangements to push ahead with the task of 
reforming the Constitution. To that end, he will reorganize the 
political world, with a focus on Article 9 of the Constitution. Even 
in the DPJ, there are members in favor of constitutional revision. 
Meanwhile, there are anti-Abe forces in the LDP. The New Komeito, 
the LDP's coalition partner, has taken the stance of protecting 
Article 9. It is now in the stage of shuffling in the preparation 
for a reorganization of the political world. A real political battle 
will start from now. 
 
(Torigoe was unofficially asked to run in the Tokyo gubernatorial 
election this April to face off with Shintaro Ishihara. After some 
thought, he decided to decline the offer for reasons of health, but 
he has continued to take a harsh look at politics.) 
 
(4) Opposition camp might use censure motions to force the prime 
minister into dissolving the Lower House 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Pages 24, 25) (Abridged) 
August 2, 2007 
 
Attention is focused on Ichiro Ozawa who heads the major opposition 
Democratic Party of Japan, which achieved a landslide victory in the 
July 29 House of Councillors election. In the wake of Agriculture 
Minister Norihiko Akagi's dismissal yesterday, the option of 
submitting a censure motion against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has 
surfaced as an effective means to force the Abe cabinet into 
resignation en masse and dissolving the House of Representatives. 
How effective is a censure motion? 
 
"I got a telephone call from Mr. Ozawa around noon today. He 
referred to Prime Minister Abe's decision to stay on as pure 
nonsense. He also said that Mr. Abe is in a state of shock and that 
his mind is in a panic." 
 
This comment came from former Upper House lawmaker Sadao Hirano, who 
is long known as an adviser to Ozawa. Hirano also explained Ozawa's 
mind this way: 
 
"During his campaign, Prime Minister Abe asked people, 'Which do you 
choose, Mr. Ozawa or myself?' His party suffered a crushing defeat 
as a result, but he will not quit as prime minister. Mr. Ozawa, in 
 
TOKYO 00003538  005 OF 007 
 
 
my view, wanted to say that the prime minister has not taken 
responsibility as a lawmaker." 
 
The LDP is exhibiting terminal symptoms, as seen in Abe's dismissal 
yesterday of Agriculture Minister Akagi over his poor handling of 
offices expenses, which allegedly contributed to the party's serious 
setback in the election. "Mr. Ozawa should force the prime minister 
into Lower House dissolution for a snap general election at the 
earliest possible date in order to bring about a change of 
government," Hirano said. 
 
Hirano also cited two points as prerequisites to that end: 
 
"In the election, the DPJ vowed to improve people's livelihoods by 
citing such areas as pension, disparity, tax, employment, 
agriculture, employment that won public support. Now the question is 
how the party fleshes them out. The DPJ must seedily come up with 
specific polities that can win public support." 
 
Hirano added: 
 
"The day after the Upper House poll, Mr. Ozawa sent a fervent 
message to all those planning to run in the next Lower House 
election on the DPJ ticket. The party needs to determine some 100 
official single-seat candidates. Making preparations for the 
election is a top priority." 
 
How will the DPJ move next in the Upper House, which is likely to 
serve as the main battlefield in the upcoming extraordinary Diet 
session, while solidifying its electoral power base? Is there any 
chance to file and approve a censure motion against Prime Minister 
Abe in the Upper House? 
 
Although Ozawa indicated in a post-election press conference that he 
was not thinking of presenting a censure motion for the time being, 
Hirano took this view: 
 
"There is a possibility that the opposition camp will present a 
motion. Chances are that it will do so in the extraordinary Diet 
session in the fall when deliberations on the Antiterrorism Special 
Measures Law, scheduled to expire on November 1, climax. If the 
prime minister tries to bulldoze bills through the Lower House, the 
opposition camp would file a motion even if it is rejected in the 
Upper House." 
 
An additional scandal involving a cabinet minister following Akagi 
or the government's failure to deal sufficiently with the pension 
issue is also likely to prompt the opposition camp to file a censure 
motion. 
 
Did Ozawa, who has a long history of wielding influence from behind 
the scenes by assisting heads of other parties, pour his heart and 
soul into the July 29 poll? 
 
Hirano said: 
 
"Mr. Ozawa is dead serious about wresting power from the LDP. 
Realizing that he can no longer run away, I think Mr. Ozawa has 
taken voters' wishes to his heart through this election." 
 
What is a censure motion in the Upper House? 
 
 
TOKYO 00003538  006 OF 007 
 
 
The Upper House's censure motion corresponds to the Lower House's 
no-confidence motion against the cabinet. To date, a total of 27 
censure motions have been filed against the prime minister and all 
have been voted down. 
 
Against cabinet ministers, 72 motions have been submitted. In 
October 1998, the DPJ, New Komeito, and Liberal Party submitted a 
motion against then Defense Agency Director-General Fukushiro Nukaga 
over a breach-of-trust scandal involving agency officials. The Upper 
House approved it for the first time under the current Constitution, 
and Nukaga stepped down as a result. 
 
Unlike a no-confidence motion against the cabinet, a censure motion 
is not legally binding. 
 
In an earlier Upper House full session, a censure motion against 
Prime Minister Abe was voted down by a margin of 18 votes. If a 
motion was filed again in the upcoming Diet session, it is certain 
to clear the Upper House. 
 
If approved, how would a censure motion against the prime minister 
affect him? 
 
Journalist Takao Toshikawa explained: 
 
"That would mean another vote of no confidence in Abe following the 
one in the latest election. Running Diet business and compiling 
budges would become extremely difficult." 
 
Political analyst Kichiya Kobayashi holds this view: 
 
"It would deal a serious blow to the Abe administration, causing him 
to lose his momentum in the party and decreasing his support rate. 
In the Diet, DPJ by using its numerical superiority would intensify 
its offensive against the LDP overt the antiterrorism law, which has 
been the legal basis for the SDF's logistical support for US 
vessels, and other legislation. LDP lawmakers would simply watch the 
fragile cabinet, and it would soon show cracks and sink." 
 
Atsuo Ito, a political analyst and a former DPJ chief of the 
secretariat, also predicted: 
 
SIPDIS 
 
"The Upper House would send bill after bill to the Lower House, such 
as legislation prohibiting pension funds being used for other 
purposes and a bill tightening the Political Funds Control Law, to 
please the public. The DPJ would pressure the prime minister for 
dissolving the Lower House." 
 
What is the most effective timing for submitting a censure motion? 
 
Toshikawa's answer is, linking it to a revision of the antiterrorism 
law which is to expire in November. Although the government eyes 
enacting a bill for extending the law by one year, there is a high 
likelihood that it will be rejected in the Upper House and be 
re-discussed in the Lower House as a result. 
 
Toshikawa added: 
 
"The DPJ has consistently opposed the antiterrorism law. Ozawa might 
present an amendment first. He would employ both soft and hard 
approaches to demonstrate that his party is capable of assuming 
political reins in addition to just saying 'no' to the ruling camp. 
 
TOKYO 00003538  007 OF 007 
 
 
The opposition bloc would submit a censure motion either when the 
Diet is in turmoil over the terrorism law's revision or soon after 
the Diet opens." 
 
Kobayashi pointed to the outset of the next Diet session to apply 
pressure on the ruling camp. He said: 
 
"The New Komeito is reluctant to extend the terrorism law, and 
re-discussing the law's extension back in the Lower House might be 
difficult. Depending on how things turn out, the Abe cabinet might 
be pressed either to resign en masse before the end of the year or 
to dissolve the Lower House to ask for a public vote of 
confidence." 
 
The DPJ still must clear many hurdles before taking the reins of 
government. Is there any chance for an Ozawa administration? 
 
Ito does not think the opposition bloc can switch place with the 
ruling camp in the next general election. He thinks a reversal of 
places takes three steps: the DPJ's landslide victory in the Upper 
House election as the first step, followed by a close race in the 
next general election as the second step, and then political 
realignment or a change of government as a result of a fissure 
between the LDP and New Komeito or schisms in the LDP as the third 
step. 
 
Political commentator Minoru Morita takes a severe view on Ozawa, 
who declared in the campaign that he might retire from politics: 
 
"The next election is about winning or losing, period. Prime 
Minister Abe is clinging to power despite his party's crushing 
defeat. That's not politics by a mature person. His administration 
is corrupt and too childish. The same is true with the head of the 
largest opposition party. I believe he won't mention retiring from 
politics anymore. Ozawa's first and foremost top priority is to 
force the prime minister into dissolving the Lower House." 
 
SCHIEFFER