VZCZCXRO8902
RR RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHTL #0547/01 2360830
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240830Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0100
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000547 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
FOR EUR/NB -- KATHERINE GARRY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MARR EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: NEW DEFENSE COMMITTEE CHAIR DISCUSSES 
IRAQ AND RUSSIA 
 
REF: TALLINN 472 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  On August 15, the Ambassador hosted a 
luncheon for Mati Raidma, Member of Parliament (MP) and new 
Chairman of the National Defense Committee (NDC).  The two 
discussed Parliament's upcoming votes to renew the Estonian 
Defense Forces (EDF) mission mandates for Iraq, 
Afghanistan, Kosovo, and the European Union (EU) Nordic 
Battle Group (NBG).  Raidma reaffirmed the trends we have 
seen in Parliament: support for Afghanistan, Kosovo, and 
the EU NBG and division over Iraq.  Raidma was cautiously 
optimistic over the Iraq vote.  He predicted that it would 
be highly politicized, and could be complicated by military 
resource strains due to Estonia's commitment to the EU NBG. 
The Ambassador and Raidma also discussed Estonia's 
relations with Russia, and Moscow's success in sowing 
division within the EU, frustrating Estonian efforts to 
push for a common EU voice when dealing with Moscow.  End 
Summary. 
 
Will Estonia Stay the Course in Iraq? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) When Parliament reconvenes in the second week of 
September, all four of Estonia's foreign missions (e.g., 
Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and EU NBG) will need to be 
renewed (each finishes at the end of 2007).  Ministry of 
Defense (MOD) interlocutors have informed us that all four 
bills are ready to submit to the Government of Estonia 
(GOE) for Parliament's ratification in the autumn. 
Raidma's NDC will have the lead in holding debates and 
bringing the bills to the general parliamentary assembly. 
Like many other MPs and GOE officials we have spoken to, 
Raidma did not foresee any difficulty renewing the 
Afghanistan, Kosovo, and EU NBG missions.  However, he 
predicted a contentious debate over Iraq.  Raidma told us 
discretely that the GOE has the votes in his committee and 
in the general assembly to pass an Iraq mission extension. 
However, the Iraq vote still concerns him for two reasons. 
 
¶3. (SBU) First, the Center Party, the largest opposition 
party in Parliament, is planning to heavily politicize this 
issue.  Ever since the April/May incidents surrounding the 
removal of the WWII-era Bronze Soldier monument, the Center 
Party has seen its popularity decline dramatically.  Raidma 
opined that Center is desperate for any political traction 
with the voters -- and the Iraq mission, widely unpopular 
with the Estonian public, gives it that opportunity.  As 
there are no other controversial bills on the horizon, 
Raidma predicted that Center would hammer the GOE on Iraq 
for the foreseeable future to rehabilitate its sinking 
popularity.  Raidma noted further that the Center Party 
will undoubtedly capitalize on the ongoing U.S. debate over 
troop withdrawals from Iraq. (Note.  Reftel noted our 
discussions with other MPs from other parties which have 
supported Raidma's analysis.  End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Secondly, Raidma was concerned about the potential 
pitfalls of the EU NBG, a rapid-reaction force that 
Brussels would send to global hot-spots.  Estonia has 
seconded up to 60 troops to participate in the EU NGB. 
Christian Liflander, MOD Director for Policy Planning, told 
us that the French are lobbying very hard that the EU NBG 
be sent to central Africa (e.g., Darfur) for peace-support 
operations.  With the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) already 
straining to meet its current operational commitments, an 
ambitious EU NBG mission to a military hotspot could be the 
straw that breaks the camel's back.  With a small number of 
professional soldiers, the EDF has heavily relied on their 
best-trained troops, the "Scouts Battalion," for 
Afghanistan and Iraq.  Using the Scouts Battalion for an 
additional operation does not seem possible and sending 
Estonian reservists and/or national guardsmen with limited 
training into a volatile environment would be a dangerous 
proposition.  Raidma explained: "If the Battle Group does 
go to Africa, MPs may decide to vote against the Iraq 
mission to shift our resources to the Battle Group." 
(Note.  MOD interlocutors have also expressed to us their 
concerns that an ambitious EU NBG mission may overwhelm EDF 
resources.  End Note.) 
 
Russia is a Concern for Everyone 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In Raidma's opinion, Estonia's recent crisis with 
Russia is only the extreme version of a disturbing trend 
emanating from Moscow.  He is disturbed by the Russian 
revisionist attitude towards history, and recent unfounded 
accusations of fascism used to deflect any external 
 
TALLINN 00000547  002 OF 002 
 
 
criticism against the Government of Russia (GOR).  Raidma 
shared with us an anecdote to illustrate.  On a recent trip 
to NATO Headquarters, he met with a Russian Duma delegation 
also visiting NATO. Raidma witnessed Duma delegates 
accusing NATO officials of being untrustworthy "for not 
keeping their promises."  They cited NATO membership for 
the Balts as an example of NATO's "lies to Russia" as NATO 
had "guaranteed this would not happen."  The Duma 
delegation's tone disturbed Raidma much more than the 
substance of their accusations. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Unfortunately, in Raidma's opinion, Russia's 
tactics to sow division within the EU have proven very 
effective.  "What Europe needs is a common voice when 
dealing with Russia," Raidma complained, "but we are not 
even close to achieving this."  The EU's temerity in 
standing up to Russia has only encouraged Moscow to become 
more aggressive in its behavior.  For this reason, he 
assured us that the GOE, Parliament, and the Estonian 
public continue to see NATO as the foundation of Estonian 
and European security. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment.  Even with Raidma's assurances that the 
GOE has the votes to pass the Iraq bill, post will monitor 
closely any possible political skirmishes over Iraq, and 
possible impact on the EDF of personnel shortages arising 
from competing missions like the EU NBG. 
 
PHILLIPS