VZCZCXRO1644
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #1863/01 2280534
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160534Z AUG 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6400
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7131
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1288
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2038
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6007
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0468
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8379

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001863 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: Southern Taiwan Reactions to DPP Hsieh-Su Presidential 
Ticket 
 
REF: 2007 Taipei 1662 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) 
presidential candidate Frank Hsieh announced on August 15 that 
former Premier Su Tseng-chang has accepted his invivation to be his 
running mate.  Most political observers and grassroots supporters in 
southern Taiwan praised the decision, saying that a Hsieh-Su ticket 
provides the DPP its best chance at winning the 2008 presidential 
election.  However, some observers question whether Hsieh and Su can 
actually bury their differences and cooperate effectively.  Local 
academics see the selection as a compromise between factions for the 
sake of DPP solidarity.  End summary. 
 
DPP Grassroots Mostly Happy with Su Selection 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) The chairmen of the Tainan County and Kaohsiung County DPP 
offices separately told AIT/K that most DPP grassroots supporters 
believe a Hsieh-Su ticket gives their party its strongest chance at 
winning the March 2008 presidential election.  They opined that the 
Hsieh-Su combination symbolizes the unification of the DPP's 
opposing factions and will encourage cooperation among party 
members.  Su is viewed by many in the DPP as an effective campaigner 
who will augment Hsieh's strengths.  Tainan County Chairman Kuo 
Kuo-Wen emphasized that 19 out of 25 DPP City and County Chairmen 
had earlier called for a Hsieh-Su ticket, proving Su has strong 
grassroots connections and the ability to galvanize DPP supporters. 
In light of reports that Hsieh is being investigated for alleged 
corruption (REFTEL), Kaohsiung County DPP Chairman Chen Ming-tze 
said that Su is a good choice because he could easily replace Hsieh 
as the DPP candidate if Hsieh is indicted.  Dr. Soong Hseik-wen, a 
Professor at National Chung Cheng University, echoed the belief that 
the Su selection would repair the rift that developed between the 
two DPP stars and their respective supporters during the party 
primary. 
 
Can't Please Them All - Some Express Preference for Yeh 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶3. (SBU) A small number of DPP supporters, including some members of 
the pro-DPP Southern Association, expressed disappointment with 
Hsieh's decision.  Yeh Chu-lan's gender and Hakka roots make her a 
stronger running mate than Su, they argued, adding that she would 
have attracted support from women, who have consistently favored Ma, 
and Taiwan's Hakka minority, the island's second largest ethnic 
group.  Nevertheless, they conceded that most DPP members will fully 
support the Hsieh-Su ticket.  Professor Kuo Chih-wen of the National 
Sun Yat-sen University, also a member of the Southern Association, 
told AIT/K that Su Tseng-chang's tough personality is better suited 
for a more active role, such as that of Premier; the vice presidency 
is a misuse of Su's abilities, he suggested. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Lee Kuan-chih, Chairman of the Kaohsiung Hakka Culture 
Foundation, told us that leaders of the Kaohsiung Hakka community 
now have no specific reasons to campaign for a Hsieh-Su ticket, 
leaving Hakka voters to cast their ballots according to their own 
preferences.  Lee added that about 160,000 people or one-sixth of 
all eligible voters in Kaohsiung City alone are Hakka, and that 
two-thirds of them usually support the DPP.  He predicted that the 
upcoming presidential election will be decided by the narrow margin 
of 100,000 votes, thus making Hakka support significant. 
 
 
KMT Sees Su Selection as Unifying for DPP 
----------------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Some members of the KMT also view the Su selection as a 
move to unify the DPP, but think KMT candidates Ma Ying-jeou and 
Vincent Siew will still win.  KMT Kaohsiung City Chairman Hsu 
Fu-ming told AIT/K that although Su Tseng-chang was not Hsieh's 
preferred choice, Hsieh has shelved his differences with Su in an 
effort to unify the DPP.  KMT Legislator Lo Shih-hsiung predicted 
that any cooperation between Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang will be 
short lived, but opined that Su will prove a stronger running mate 
than Yeh.  Lo repeated his earlier speculation that President Chen 
might have somehow used the threat of bringing corruption charges 
against Hsieh to pressure him into selecting Su (REFTEL). 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Most observers in southern Taiwan believe Su will provide 
a significant boost to the DPP's bid to hold on to the presidency 
for a third consecutive term.  That Hsieh has decided to go with the 
 
TAIPEI 00001863  002 OF 002 
 
 
party's preferred candidate rather than his personal choice shows 
that he is pragmatic and understands that he will need a strongly 
unified DPP to be competitive in the upcoming presidential election. 
 
 
Thiele 
 
Young