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R 060821Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
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INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2936
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3052
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 2115
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUALSFJ/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//

UNCLAS SEOUL 002356 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: NEW LIBERAL PARTY: UNDP NOT QUITE UNITED 
 
REF: A. SEOUL 02047 
 
     ¶B. SEOUL 01684 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY (SBU) In pursuit of a grand coalition of the 
liberals, defectors from the ruling Uri Party and the 
Moderate United Democrats (MUD) launched the new progressive 
party "United New Democratic Party (UNDP)" on August 5.  With 
eighty-five lawmakers, the new party emerged as the second 
largest in the Assembly.  However, mired in factional feuds, 
the new party faces an uphill battle to create a true 
coalition.  Only three liberal candidates -- Sohn Hak-kyu, 
Chung Dong-young and Chun Jung-bae -- joined the new party as 
other candidates from the Uri Party and the MUD refused to 
join.  The failure to draw in all factions to the new 
coalition party means that the primary in the liberal camp 
will likely be conducted in three different "leagues," 
namely, three separate primary elections could select 
separate candidates to represent the UNDP, the MUD, and the 
pro-Roh Uri party.  All groups acknowledge they must coalesce 
behind one candidate, but this latest half-way attempt at a 
coalition makes the process more, not less difficult. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
NEW COALITION PARTY FORMS 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On August 5, eighty-five lawmakers, who defected from 
the pro-government Uri Party and the Moderate United 
Democrats (MUD), launched a new party "United New Democratic 
Party (UNDP)."  Their foremost goal is to achieve a grand 
coalition of liberal forces, from inside and out of politics, 
to field a competitive candidate for December's presidential 
election.  About 6,000 party members, including liberal 
presidential hopefuls Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and Chun 
Jung-bae, attended the inaugural convention held at the 
Olympic gym in southern Seoul.  Neither the Uri nor MUD's 
main hopefuls joined -- Uri Party's lead candidates, former 
Prime Ministers Han Myeong-sook and Lee Hae-chan were notably 
absent.  Reverend Oh Choong-il, an NGO leader, was named as 
the new coalition party's chairman. 
 
¶3. (U) The 85-member UNDP now is the second largest in the 
299-member National Assembly behind the main opposition Grand 
National Party (GNP) with 128 seats but ahead of the Uri 
Party with 58 seats.  The UNDP lawmakers consist of three 
groups: (1) Sixty-one recent defectors from the Uri Party; 
(2) The so-called Kim Han-gill group of nineteen lawmakers 
who defected from the Uri Party in February, and thereafter 
merged with the Democratic Party (DP) into MUD, and finally 
left MUD to join UNDP; (3) five lawmakers who were members of 
the DP, and later the MUD, and defected from the MUD to UNDP. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
MIRED IN FACTIONAL FEUDS, FACING A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (U) Despite the fanfare, UNDP has a long way to go to 
reach its grand goal of "integrating all liberal forces and 
producing a single candidate for the presidential election." 
Within and outside of the party, factional feuds are rife. 
The Uri Party and the DP failed to join UNDP in spite of the 
July 4 agreement among six progressive presidential hopefuls 
brokered by former candidate Kim Geun-tae.  At that time, 
Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young, Lee Hae-chan, Han 
Myeong-sook, Kim Hyuk-kyu, and Chun Jung-bae all pledged to 
form a united party and stand behind a single presidential 
candidate.  However, six Uri Party candidates, including Han 
Myeong-sook and Lee Hae-chan, did not attend the UNDP event, 
citing the new party's reluctance to align with presidential 
hopefuls close to President Roh Moo-hyun.  MUD members 
formerly of the DP also refused to join the UNDP, demanding 
that any grand coalition exclude Roh loyalists.  Park 
Sang-chun, who was co-representative of the MUD and a 
longtime member of DP, continues to label Roh Moo-hyun as a 
"traitor" who broke up the DP by creating the Uri Party. 
Reflecting the factional friction within the UNDP, seats of 
the UNDP Supreme Council have been allocated to each faction. 
 Rep. Lee Mi-kyung represents recent defectors from the Uri 
Party; Rep. Cho Il-hyun represents the Kim Han-gil splinter 
group; former Rep. Chung Kyung-hwan represents the DP group; 
and Kim Sang-hee and Yang Kil-seung represent the NGOs and 
civic groups. 
 
---------------------- 
SOHN - A TRUE LIBERAL? 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Meanwhile, Sohn Hak-kyu, the frontrunner on the 
liberal side with 6.2 percent support in an August 5 
Hankyoreh poll, faces increasing attacks and competition from 
his rivals within his party.  As a former member of the GNP, 
he is attempting to portray himself as a legitimate liberal 
candidate.  At the August 5 UNDP inaugural convention, Sohn 
Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and Chun Jung-bae all stressed the 
importance of "inheriting the spirit of Gwangju (May 18 
Uprising)."  Sohn stressed it in particular, trying to 
overcome the backlash he caused after saying on August 3 that 
"the nation should not be stuck in the spirit of Gwangju 
anymore."  Chun and Chung attacked Sohn and emphasized their 
legitimacy as progressive candidates. 
 
---------------------------- 
UNDP - FUTURE NOT SO BRIGHT? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) There are also signs that liberal supporters are 
drawing away from the new party and its leading candidate, 
Sohn Hak-kyu.  In an August 5 poll by Hankyoreh, a liberal 
Korean daily, Chough Soon-hyung garnered support from 9.1 
percent of the liberal voters, an unexpectedly high rate. 
Although far behind Sohn's popularity rating of 24 percent, 
pundits see Chough's popularity reflecting the voters' doubts 
about Sohn's new party.  Regarding the UNDP, only 8.1 percent 
said they would support it, while 35.3 percent said they 
would not.  More than half, 54.4 percent, responded that they 
do not know.  36.7 percent of the surveyed saw Park 
Sang-chun's decision not to merge DP into the UNDP in a 
positive light. 
 
¶7. (U) On August 6, the UNDP elected Rep. Kim Hyo-seuk, a 
two-term lawmaker formerly affiliated with MUD and before 
that the floor leader of the DP, as its floor leader and will 
now register as a floor negotiation group.  The new party 
will elect its presidential candidate through a primary 
starting in September.  The "open primary" will allow all 
comers to vote.  As the Uri Party and the MUD show no sign of 
backing down and joining the UNDP, the primary in the 
progressive camp will likely have to be conducted in three 
different "leagues," namely, the new party, the MUD, and the 
remaining Uri party. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The progressive forces are in disarray.  Even after 
some "coalesced" to form the UNDP, they are not much closer 
to fielding a unified candidate than before, because key 
constituents in this camp, in cluding Roh Moo-hyun supporters 
and politicians associated with the fomer DP, were absent. 
With the December elections fast approaching, the goal for 
all three progressive groups -- the Uri, UNDP and MUD -- 
remains the same.  They must all get together behind one 
candidate if they hope to be competitive in December.  This 
goal remains as elusive as ever. 
STANTON