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PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #1252/01 2271206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151206Z AUG 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5183
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0356
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (KHARNE/RBUDDEN) 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ASEC CPAS SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NO. 4 
 
REF: KINGSTON 1194 (021929Z AUG 07) 
 
Summary and Analysis 
--------------------- 
 
1.(SBU) In this fourth round-up of election-related developments: 
 
-- Leaders debate social, economic, and leadership issues; 
 
-- On balance, an election still too close to call; 
 
-- Sporadic violence continues, as Director of Elections warns of 
possible postponements in two volatile constituencies; 
 
-- Risk of an even 30/30 split of parliamentary seats? 
 
-- Wild cards: Candidates not having renounced U.S. citizenship 
could face disqualifications from Parliament. 
 
2.(SBU)  Large-scale, orchestrated political violence of the kind 
which plagued the 1980 campaign, during which hundreds were killed, 
remains unlikely.  Nevertheless, random incidents involving 
grass-roots supporters of the two parties could still escalate out 
of control in some areas; this is particularly true in the 
closely-contested constituencies, and, immediately after the 
election results are announced the night of August 27, in those 
which may change hands.  After 18 years in power, if the PNP loses, 
its grass-roots supporters in some constituencies are unlikely to 
slip quietly into the night. 
End Summary and Analysis. 
 
First Debate: 
Phillips projects steadiness on social issues 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU)  Minister of National Security and Vice President of the 
ruling People's National Party (PNP) Dr. Peter Phillips is generally 
perceived to have won the first of three debates to be held in the 
run-up to the August 27 national election.  In a forum focusing on 
social issues and broadcast nationally the evening of August 8, the 
telegenic Phillips bested Dr. Ken Baugh, the opposition Jamaica 
Labour Party (JLP)'s shadow cabinet minister for Health and the 
Environment.  Health, education, crime, and job creation were the 
principal themes.  Phillips stoutly defended the PNP's 18-year 
record, acknowledging that much remained to be done but maintaining 
that the PNP continued to make steady progress.  Baugh, a 
universally respected physician, decried the poor state of Jamaica's 
health services and schools, while Phillips dismissed the JLP's 
manifesto proposals for free health care and abolition of school 
tuition fees as fiscally irresponsible. 
 
Second Debate: 
Shaw persuasively outlines Opposition's economic plan 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4.(SBU)  Minister of Finance Dr. Omar Davies and JLP shadow minister 
of finance and public service Audley Shaw squared off on economic 
issues the evening of August 10.  Shaw persuasively outlined the 
JLP's proposals to: 
 
-- attract international investment to create jobs, enhance 
productivity, and boost Jamaica's anemic growth to 6-10 percent; 
 
-- improve debt and deficit management, to include full cooperation 
with the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank; 
 
-- root out endemic corruption in government contracting; 
 
-- abolish hospital user and education tuition fees; 
 
-- dismantle the Ministry of Local Government. 
 
5.(SBU)  For his part, Davies seemed uncharacteristically lackluster 
as he: 
 
-- emphasized the PNP's success in bringing inflation under 
control; 
 
-- insisted the country already was on track for higher growth and 
productivity; 
 
-- dismissed Opposition proposals on health and education as "wild 
promises" that would necessitate more taxes and/or borrowing. 
 
Final Debate: 
Opposition Leader outshines Prime Minister 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6.(SBU)  JLP Leader Bruce Golding turned in one of his more 
 
KINGSTON 00001252  002 OF 003 
 
 
impressive performances within memory in debating the charismatic 
PSM the evening of August 11.  Armed with a formidable arsenal of 
facts and figures, and projecting an image of confidence and calm 
commitment, Golding: 
 
-- objectively depicted Jamaica's anemic growth, high unemployment 
and crime, endemic corruption, and heavy debt burden after 18 years 
of PNP rule; 
 
-- convincingly outlined the JLP's strategies "to lead Jamaica out 
of this slump," with emphasis on attracting investment and 
stimulating growth by reducing the debt burden.  ((Note: Septel will 
compare the recently-released manifestos of the two major parties. 
End Note.)) 
 
7.(SBU)  PSM derided the Opposition's health and education 
proposals, claiming that "this new Jamaica has no time to waste on 
wild experiments....there is no time to listen to negative voices." 
She reiterated her claim "to balance the books, and also to balance 
people's lives," and depicted Golding as unreliable because of his 
history of breaking with, and subsequently returning to, the JLP. 
She had difficulty in responding to the Opposition Leader's pointed 
queries regarding her retention of the controversial Minster of 
Industry, Technology, Energy, and Commerce Phillip Paulwell, who has 
been at the center of a series of alleged imbroglios (reftel). 
Addressing a group of supporters on August 13, PSM tacitly 
acknowledged that she had been bested in the debate by dismissing 
Golding as a "profiler," claiming that "the people of Jamaica will 
be sending him into official political retirement on August 27." 
 
On Balance: Still Too Close to Call 
----------------------------------- 
 
8.(SBU)  The ruling PNP continues to hold a narrow 3.5 percentage 
point lead over the opposition JLP, according to the latest 
Observer/Don Anderson poll taken July 27-30.  Speaking on the radio 
talk show "Breakfast Club," Anderson reiterated that all signs point 
to a tight race in which as many as 25 of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary 
seats may be won by narrow margins.  Research for the "Sunday 
Gleaner" newspaper published August 12 suggests that 20 seats will 
determine the outcome, of which 11 are concentrated in the central 
county of Middlesex, in the parishes of St. Ann, St. Catherine, St. 
Mary, Manchester, and Clarendon.  Post continues to believe the race 
is too close to call. 
 
Sporadic violence; warning by Director of Elections 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
9.(SBU)  Sporadic violence, with allegations of political 
motivations, continues to mar the campaign: 
 
(A) After a series of violent incidents in West Central St. Andrew 
and South East St. Elizabeth, the respected Director of Elections 
Danville Walker has warned publicly that, if he deems necessary, he 
will postpone the elections in these two closely contested, volatile 
constituencies.  In the former, JLP incumbent Andrew Holness is 
challenged by the PNP's Patrick Roberts, while in the latter the 
JLP's Franklyn Witter and PNP's Norman Horne vie to succeed the 
outgoing MP Lenworth Blake. 
 
(B) In St. Thomas, Trelawney, and elsewhere across the country, a 
number of recent shootings and stabbings have led to allegations and 
denials between PNP and JLP supporters and/or officials that such 
incidents were, or were not, politically motivated.  In some cases, 
rather than "politically motivated," these incidents may well have 
been gang-related violence involving persons of known political 
affiliations. 
 
10.(SBU) In Post's estimate, a return to the large-scale, 
orchestrated political violence that plagued the 1980 campaign, 
during which hundreds were killed, remains unlikely.  Nevertheless, 
random violent incidents involving grass-roots supporters of the two 
parties could still escalate out of control; this is particularly 
the case in closely-contested constituencies, and, immediately after 
the election results are announced the night of August 27, those 
which may have changed hands. 
 
A 30/30 Split? 
-------------- 
 
11.(SBU)  With the election widely perceived as likely to be the 
closest Jamaica has seen in many years, speculation has mounted 
regarding the possibility of an even split of the 60 parliamentary 
seats between the PNP and JLP ((Note: the much smaller: (a) National 
Democratic Movement (NDM), (b) a Rastafarian party, and (c) a 
handful of independents are widely given no chance of winning seats. 
 End Note.))  The Constitution contains no provisions specifically 
addressing a hung Parliament.  The Chairman of the local observer 
group Citizens for Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE), Dr. Lloyd 
 
KINGSTON 00001252  003 OF 003 
 
 
Barnett, has criticized the country's leaders for neglecting to 
minimize this risk by redistricting to ensure an odd number of 
seats.  However, Governor General Prof. Kenneth Hall has assured the 
nation that, should it arise, he has (unspecified) plans for dealing 
with such a contingency. 
 
Wild Cards:  Possible Disqualifications of Candidates for Parliament 
who retain U.S. Citizenship? 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
12.(SBU)  Meanwhile, media speculation has intensified concerning at 
least six (6) candidates for Parliament (3 PNP, 3 JLP) who 
previously may have sworn allegiance to the U.S. and have not yet 
renounced such allegiance - and who thus, under Section 40 of the 
Constitution, may be disqualified for membership in the House of 
Representatives (or the Senate. 
 
13.(SBU) ((Note: Post has received several inquiries from candidates 
concerning renunciations of U.S. citizenship, and the Consulate 
General has provided the standard applicable information; however, 
to date no candidates actually have completed the renunciation 
process.  Some commentators have asserted that, in order for such 
candidates to avoid disqualification, they would have had to 
complete renunciations prior to Nomination Day (August 7), rather 
than by Election Day (August 27).  Poloff has inquired with a 
respected constitutional authority; speaking off the record and on 
condition of anonymity, the authority confirmed that the answer 
depended on the interpretation of the "Representation of the Peoples 
Act," and that to date no court had ruled on this point-- thus 
leaving the question open.  End Note.)) 
 
14.(SBU)  Comment: If the election is as close as many observers 
believe it will be, the disqualification of only one or two 
candidates, possibly entailing protracted court cases, conceivably 
could be a factor in shaping, or in eventually re-shaping, Jamaica's 
next Government.  Particularly if prospective disqualification(s) 
would result in the ruling party losing power, the risk of violence 
would be serious.  End Comment. 
JOHNSON