VZCZCXRO5373
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #1846 2431043
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 311043Z AUG 07
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8893
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001846 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS KDEM KPAL KMPI
SUBJECT: SHIKAKI: ABU MAZEN NEEDS PEACE PROCESS SUCCESS 
QUICKLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Khalil Shikaki, head of the Center for 
Palestine for Research and Studies (CPRS) told Staffdel 
Talwar that PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) needs 
tangible success in the planned November international 
meeting to deter reconciliation with Hamas. End Summary 
 
Abu Mazen Needs Peace Process Success Quickly 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.    (SBU) In an August 18, meeting Khalil Shikaki, head of 
the Center for Palestine for Research and Studies (CPRS) told 
Staffdel Talwar that Hamas' take over of Gaza has brought 
about a desperate situation that calls into question whether 
Palestinians can manage their own political affairs, pursue 
democratic processes, and achieve peace.  According to 
Shikaki, for PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and the 
current government to navigate this situation successfully, 
they need agreement on a framework of principles with Israel 
that includes tangible outcomes from the planned November 
international meeting.  Shikaki said Abu Mazen wants this 
meeting to produce an agreement on a 10 page detailed 
framework on permanent status issues and yield tangible 
benefits. He said it would be "a stroke of genius" if the 
meeting produces a release of prisoners including Fatah 
leader Marwan Barghouti and Barghouti attends the next Arab 
Summit to support the framework agreement. 
 
¶3.    (SBU) Shikaki, believes that Abu Mazen will call for 
early elections following the December donor committee 
meeting and that these elections would be held in the spring 
as a referendum on permanent status issues. Shikaki said he 
believes that 60 percent of the Palestinian public will 
endorse an Palestinian-Israeli agreement that includes 100 
percent of the West Bank with territorial swaps, sovereignty 
of the Haram al Sharif, and recognition of the right of 
return along the lines of UN General Assembly Resolution 194 
and that people are prepared to accept Israeli sovereignty 
over Jewish East Jerusalem and settlement blocs that make up 
3-4 percent of the West Bank. 
 
¶4.    (SBU) Without progress in November, Shikaki warned, 
Fatah will collapse and Abu Mazen will have to return to 
negotiations with Hamas. Shikaki said there is "no doubt" 
that Abu Mazen will go back to dialogue with Hamas in six 
months, it is just a question of the terms.  According to 
Shikaki, Fatah,s success and failure are tied to a peace 
agreement with Israel, and Palestinians will support Fatah, 
because of the movement's perceived ability to deliver a 
peace settlement, build a state and provide stability. 
 
Hamas 
----- 
 
¶5.    (SBU) Shikaki told Staffdel Talwar that Hamas expects 
the November meeting to fail without needing to take any 
steps to undermine it and is focusing its efforts on 
demonstrating responsible governance in Gaza and 
consolidating its West Bank assets.  Hamas's goal, according 
to Shikaki, is to show that Fatah security services were 
responsible for the previous lawlessness in Gaza.  Shikaki 
also said Hamas does not want to draw Israel into Gaza and 
does not have to prove its "resistance credentials" vis--vis 
Fatah by constantly fighting Israel. 
 
Government,s Performance 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.    (SBU) Shikaki said the government must be perceived as 
trying to meet the humanitarian needs of Gazans and not as 
complicit in closing them off.  He noted that CPRS, next 
poll will be on the credibility of the government. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Staffdel Talwar cleared on this cable. 
DUFFY