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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7387
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA IMMEDIATE 6945
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RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME IMMEDIATE 1128
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000722 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP AMGT ASEC AFIN TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY SCENESETTER FOR CODEL COSTELLO, AUGUST 
20-22, 2007 
 
REF: STATE 107590 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Turkey's ruling Justice and Development 
Party (AKP), which scored a significant victory in recent 
elections, was given the mandate to form another single-party 
government.  AKP is expected to continue to pursue its 
economic and political reform policies.  On Iraq, Turkey 
continues to be an essential partner, supporting coalition 
forces by allowing use of its territory as logistical hub. 
The single biggest obstacle to bilateral relations is PKK 
terrorism.  Turkey has repeatedly expressed impatience at the 
lack of U.S. action against PKK terrorists in northern Iraq 
and has threatened to strike at PKK targets across the border 
if the U.S. or Iraq does not act.  A U.S. Congressional 
Armenian genocide resolution would likely jeopardize U.S. 
national security interests in Turkey and Iraq, and 
complicate the security environment for U.S. citizens and USG 
personnel and work against those in Turkey calling for a 
collaborate look at 1915 events.  Turkey's economy has 
achieved five years of GDP growth averaging over 7% -- the 
highest rate of any OECD country.  Because of its strategic 
location, Turkey aspires to increase its role as an energy 
transit country by piping natural gas to meet Europe's 
growing needs, and will soon begin transporting gas from 
Azerbaijan to Greece.  End summary. 
 
ISTANBUL AGENDA 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Transportation and port safety as well as efficient 
operation of commercial aircraft repair stations are 
important issues in Istanbul. Your schedule includes visits 
to Turkish-government run facilities at the Haydarpasa 
container port facility and the Ship Traffic Administration 
and Information System (VTS) for the Turkish straits.  At the 
MNG Maintenance Repair Facility, you will be able to review 
commercial aircraft repair operations in Istanbul.  The 
Deputy Chief of Mission will brief you on bilateral issues of 
importance and you will have the opportunity to meet 
newly-elected Members of Parliament.  You will also meet 
leading members of Istanbul,s business community during a 
meeting with Turkish-U.S. Business Council (TAIK) 
representatives who work to expand trade and commercial ties 
with the United States. 
 
MISSION TURKEY 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mission Turkey consists of four posts:  Embassy 
Ankara, Consulate General Istanbul, Consulate Adana, and a 
two-person Consular Agency in Izmir.  Country-wide, there are 
currently about 300 American positions and almost 700 locally 
employed staff (LES) working for over 20 agencies throughout 
the Mission.  The Mission's FY 2007 operating budget was $30 
million.  Mission Turkey is scheduled for a New Embassy 
Compound (NEC), with construction set to begin in 2010. 
 
TRANSPORTATION SECURITY/SAFETY 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With 7200 km of coastline (compared to 2648 km of 
land boundaries), port security is important to Turkey, which 
actively participates in the International Maritime 
Organization's (IMO) port security and safety programs. 
Istanbul hosted the most recent session of the IMO's Maritime 
Safety Committee in November 2006.  Turkey's Maritime 
Undersecretariat and Coast Guard officials cooperate with our 
Coast Guard liaisons who perform periodic assessments of 
Turkey's IMO International Ship and Port Security (ISPS) Code 
compliance, from which Turkish ports have regularly scored 
high marks.  Most of Turkey's major ports have been 
privatized, and more (including the ports of Mersin and 
Izmir), have been tendered to begin privatization this year. 
Turkish maritime officials hope enhanced technology and thus 
safety and security will result.  DHS, State Department and 
embassy officials are currently in final discussions with the 
GOT to implement the DHS Container Security Initiative (CSI) 
at the port of Izmir (a process that has taken several 
years), from which most goods destined for the United States 
originate.  Turkey is also an active member of the 
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).  Turkish 
officials have coordinated with U.S. civil aviation officials 
at ICAO and have supported many of our proposals to enhance 
aviation safety and security. 
 
TRADE 
 
¶5. (SBU) With two-way bilateral trade around $10 billion, 
 
ISTANBUL 00000722  002 OF 003 
 
 
roughly in balance between exports and imports, the U.S. is 
an important trading partner for Turkey.  However, about half 
of Turkey's trade is with the EU, and Turkish trade with the 
Middle East, African and former Soviet Union countries is 
growing.  As Turkey's total trade volume -- both exports and 
imports -- grows, the U.S. share in Turkey's trade is 
declining. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Deepening bilateral economic and business ties is a 
key priority of the Shared Vision and Structured Dialogue 
announced by Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister Gul in July 
¶2006.  To help catalyze closer economic ties, the U.S. and 
Turkey held a meeting of the bilateral Economic Partnership 
Commission (EPC) in February, 2007, co-chaired by the Under 
Secretary of the Turkish Foreign Ministry and State 
 
SIPDIS 
Department Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy and 
Business Affairs Daniel Sullivan.  The EPC laid out an action 
plan that both sides are working to implement. 
 
ENERGY ISSUES 
 
¶7. (U) Turkey imports nearly all of its oil and natural gas. 
However, Turkey's strategic location, between Europe and the 
Middle East and Caspian regions, makes Turkey an important 
energy transit country. More than 3 million bbl of Caspian 
oil pass every day through the Bosphorus Straits, and nearly 
1 million bbl/d of oil pass through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan 
(BTC) pipeline, the first transnational pipeline for Caspian 
oil that does not cross Russian soil.  Turkey aspires to 
increase its role as an energy transit country by piping 
natural gas to meet Europe's growing needs. Turkey will soon 
begin transporting gas from Azerbaijan to Greece; the first 
time Europe will receive Caspian gas by a non-Russian route. 
Turkey also aspires to construct the larger Nabucco pipeline 
to deliver natural gas across Turkey to Austria. The USG 
supports Nabucco, but only if it is filled with non-Iranian 
gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and possibly 
Iraq.  Recent Russian announcements that reinforce its hold 
on Turkmen gas and bypassing Turkey to sell gas to Italy, 
spurred Turkey to announce a preliminary MOU with Iran on a 
future gas deal, which we have protested. 
 
HOUSE RESOLUTION ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE 
 
¶8. (SBU)  The USG has worked hard to encourage a candid 
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic 
Armenians during World War I.  The Turkish and Armenian 
governments have discussed establishing commissions of 
academics and historians from Turkey and Armenia to establish 
the facts, in parallel with efforts to reestablish official 
bilateral relations.  A U.S. Congressional resolution 
labeling this tragedy a "genocide" would trigger an intensely 
negative and nationalist response, and would work against 
those voices in Turkey that are calling for a comprehensive 
exploration of these events and for normalizing bilateral 
relations with Armenia. 
 
¶9. (SBU) A resolution would also have negative consequences 
for U.S. national security interests in Iraq and elsewhere. 
Supply routes into Iraq that are crucial to supporting U.S. 
troops, military overflights and use of Turkish bases that 
support U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan 
could be jeopardized.  Additionally, major defense 
procurement contracts with U.S. manufacturers (with expected 
and potential sales exceeding $10 billion) could be scrapped. 
 Agricultural purchases might also be canceled and consumer 
boycotts could ensue.  Anti-Americanism in Turkey would 
likely intensify, increasing the threat level for U.S. 
citizens and USG personnel living and working in Turkey. 
 
IRAQ/PKK 
 
¶10. (SBU) For over 22 years, the PKK has conducted a 
terrorist campaign that has resulted in the  deaths of about 
37,000 Turks.  Increased violence from attacks conducted from 
strongholds in northern Iraq have killed some 700 in 2006 and 
2007 and have prompted the government and military to warn of 
possible cross-border operations into Iraq.  The USG has 
strongly discouraged this, citing Iraqi sovereignty and the 
risk of increased instability.  The United States has been 
Turkey's closest ally in the fight against the PKK, securing 
EU agreement to place the PKK on its list of terrorist 
organizations; spear-heading Europe-wide effort to close PKK 
financial, logistical, and media support outlets there; and 
leading a trilateral (US/TU/IZ) process to stop the threat 
 
ISTANBUL 00000722  003 OF 003 
 
 
emanating from northern Iraq. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Iraq remains a major concern for Turkey.  Turkey 
worries about increasing instability in Iraq, growing Iranian 
influence in the region, and the potential for Iraq to 
splinter along sectarian or ethnic lines.  Turkish political 
leaders have sought to reinforce Iraq's unity and territorial 
integrity, and have been among the most active of Iraq's 
neighbors in the Iraq Neighbors Process. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to the use of its territory as a 
logistical hub has been a combat multiplier for our Iraq 
operations.  Approximately 3 million gallons per day of 
gasoline and diesel fuel for the Iraqi people and 25% of 
sustainment fuel for coalition forces crosses into Iraq 
through the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border 
Gate.  Since May 2005 when Turkey approved the use of 
Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub to support coalition 
operations in Iraq, over 152 million pounds of equipment have 
been shipped to U.S. troops.  Over 50% of all air cargo into 
Iraq has transited the Incirlik cargo hub. 
 
EU ACCESSION 
 
¶13. (U) A double-election year contributed to the GOT's 
failure to enact reform on some high-profile political 
issues, even while technical-level EU harmonization 
continued.  Turkish officials are concerned that the EU's 
December annual progress report could recommend suspension of 
additional chapters.  The Turkish public, meanwhile, has 
grown increasingly skeptical of the EU venture, in large part 
as a reaction to Euro-skepticism of Turkey.  AKP, as 
historically the party most committed to Turkey's EU 
membership, now has the chance to use its electoral mandate 
to breathe new life into the process. 
 
ELECTION RESULTS 
 
¶14. (U) Turkey's ruling AKP scored a significant victory in 
July 22 parliamentary elections, returning to power with 46% 
of the vote, up from 34% in the 2002 election.  Two other 
parties crossed the ten percent election threshold required 
to enter parliament, along with 26 independent candidates, 
creating a fractious if more representative legislature. 
President Sezer gave Prime Minister Erdogan the mandate to 
form another single-party government on August 6; a new 
cabinet is expected to be announced soon.  With 341 of 
parliament's 550 seats, AKP returns with a reduced majority 
and short - on its own - of the 367 seats needed to elect the 
next president or amend Turkey's military-drafted 
constitution.  The opposition CHP, with 20% of the vote, lost 
seats in several of its strongholds. Commentators view the 
results as the opposition's failure as much as AKP's success. 
 The new parliament was sworn in on August 4; election of a 
Speaker, formation of a new government and election of 
Turkey's next president will top the agenda. 
OUDKIRK