VZCZCXYZ0019
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGT #1619 2221610
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101610Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3549
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4461

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAID KDEM PHUM SOCI GT
SUBJECT: LOGISTICS REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS ELECTION DAY APPROACHES 
 
REF:  GUATEMALA 1515 
 
¶1.  Summary:  With election day only a month away, the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has yet to launch an information campaign 
to tell citizens how and where to vote and implementation of the 
bold voting place decentralization plan does not appear to have 
advanced.  Compliance with new campaign finance regulations aimed at 
promoting greater transparency and accountability has been spotty. 
At the local level, political violence, especially in the 
narco-region of Jutiapa, has eliminated some candidates and deterred 
others from running for local office.  Despite generalized concerns 
that the TSE has prepared poorly for the elections, most observers 
do not expect its poor performance on election day to be significant 
unless the vote count is close.  End summary. 
 
Decentralized Voting Centers 
---------------------------- 
¶2.  As part of efforts to promote greater access to and 
participation in the political process, the Congress enacted a 
decentralization plan, increasing the number of voting centers 
throughout the country to reach rural areas.  Up to 1.2 million 
citizens who updated their voter registry information reside in 
remote rural areas, many of whom will have to vote in new precincts 
created as part of the decentralization plan.  The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE), however, has yet to identify where these new centers 
will be and inform citizens of how and where to vote on election 
day. 
 
¶3.  Domestic and international observation missions have stressed 
the need for an information campaign as quickly as possible, warning 
that failure to inform rural voters of the voting process may create 
confusion and long waiting lines, as well as put into question the 
credibility of results in those areas.  According to the OAS 
technical assistance office, the TSE has obligated and spent only 32 
percent of its budget as of the end of July and is likely to return 
funds to the Treasury after the elections because of its inability 
to approve contracts and expenses in a timely manner. 
 
Campaign Finance 
---------------- 
¶4.  Under new regulations approved by the TSE, all political parties 
are required to report all expenditures during the electoral period. 
 Expenses cannot exceed Q44 million (USD 5.8 million) per political 
party. 
 
¶5.  According to Accion Ciudadana estimates, a member of national 
election observation network Mirador Electoral, the three leading 
political parties (UNE, PP, and GANA) have already exceeded the 
yearly cap and the budget they presented to the TSE.  They calculate 
PP has spent Q60.3 million (USD 7.9 million) on publicity, but 
reported expenditures of only Q40 million (USD 5.3 million).  UNE 
spent Q47.3 million (USD 6.2 million) on publicity, but reported 
spending only Q44 (USD 5.8 million).  GANA spent Q44.2 (USD 5.8 
million) on publicity, while reporting total expenditures of Q42.2 
million (USD 5.6 million).  Accion Ciudadana bases its estimates on 
normal advertising charges by the media and does not have actual 
expense information from the parties.  No criminal sanctions have 
been imposed for non-compliance due to lack of an election crimes 
law, and TSE has not imposed civil penalties on the parties. 
 
Political Violence 
------------------ 
¶6.  A total of 58 cases of political violence, including 38 murders, 
were reported over the past year, according to the Central American 
Institute for Political Studies (INCEP).  Of the 38 murders, 17 were 
members of the party of presidential front-runner Alvaro Colom 
(UNE), including a congressional representative and a mayor, or 
their family members.  All major parties have had activities and in 
some cases mayoral candidates killed. 
 
¶7.  Comment:  Local and international observers have expressed 
concerns over the TSE's lack of logistical organization and 
efficiency, especially the delay in implementing the decentralized 
voting centers and informing the public of the details of the voting 
process. 
 
Derham