VZCZCXRO9960
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0924/01 2261605
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141605Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1516
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12598:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA ELECTIONS WATCH - ONE STEP CLOSER, BUT FAR TO GO 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Both the majority and opposition blocs finally 
submitted lists of ten nominations each for the Independent National 
Electoral Commission (CENI) to the Ministry of Interior and 
Security.  However, minor opposition parties continue to post 
obstacles, claiming that they are being shut out of the CENI.  With 
a little over four months to go and still no CENI, the Ministry of 
Interior is so far holding to the December elections timeline 
despite all indications that it will be nearly impossible to 
achieve.  There is a growing perception among the general population 
that some factions within Government ministries and/or the majority 
party may be stalling.  This perception is exacerbated by the 
Ministry's lack of a public relations program to communicate about 
election preparations.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On August 13, Poloff met with El Hadj Amadou Baillo 
Diallo, Secretary General of the Ministry of Interior and Security. 
Baillo Diallo has been in the same position since 1992 and overseen 
every Guinean election over the last 15 years.  In recent staff 
shake-ups within the Ministry, nearly all of Diallo's peers were 
reassigned as governors or prefects while Diallo was left behind. 
Most Ministry officials with any experience organizing elections are 
no longer within the Ministry. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Diallo confirmed that both the majority and opposition 
blocs submitted their lists of CENI nominations to his office last 
week, but suggested that the process is still blocked.  Some members 
of the opposition, which is composed of 16 different parties, object 
to the CENI nominations, claiming that the smaller parties are not 
represented within the ten seats.  The Ministry will have another 
meeting with parties at an unspecified date to try to reach 
agreement. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Elections remain officially scheduled for December, which 
Diallo said is still possible.  He noted that the voter registration 
equipment (being provided by the donor community) will be in place 
by October 5 and that the registration process should start shortly 
thereafter.  (Note - Technical advisors to the process report that 
they will need a minimum of two months to complete voter 
registration).  Diallo added that it is for the political parties to 
look at the elections timeline and request a change in the date, if 
necessary.  The Ministry will not make that decision. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) When asked about a public relations campaign to inform the 
public about the elections, Diallo said that both the Ministry and 
the political parties are responsible for "sensitizing" the 
population.  However, Diallo was referring more to voter education 
and awareness rather than communication about actual elections 
preparations and an implementing timeline.  He did admit that there 
is a limit on how long the elections can be delayed before the 
population will start doubting the electoral process. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Diallo also commented on plans to train and install more 
police forces before the elections, a perceived need that was 
articulated by the President of the National Assembly, El Hadj 
Aboubacar Sompare, when he addressed the National Assembly during 
the budget session in July.  Diallo said that Guinea currently has 
only two police and two gendarmes for every 300,000 people when 
according to international standards, that number should support a 
population of 250 people.  The Ministry, which now combines the two 
functions of Interior and Security, does not yet have a program or 
funding in place, but Diallo said it is in the works. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT.  The submission of the nomination lists by the 
parties for the CENI is a significant step forward.  Hopefully, 
another meeting between the Ministry of Interior and the parties 
will resolve lingering disagreements and finally establish the CENI 
as a functioning body.  However, even if the CENI is established in 
the next few weeks, the December elections timeline is still 
unrealistic.  Effective registration of eligible voters is 
absolutely critical to ensuring transparency and that process will 
likely take longer than two months. Diallo is right that the 
decision is unlikely to be made by his Ministry.  Rather, the Prime 
Minister and political parties will eventually bow to the inevitable 
and publicly accept a further delay. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Guineans are becoming increasingly frustrated with this 
lack of progress on elections, which is seen by some as stalling on 
either the part of the Government or the majority party.  Even if it 
is others who will make the decision on the election date, it is 
disingenuous on Baillo Diallo's part to imply the Ministry has no 
part in the eventual decision, since the Ministry (and specifically 
the old bureaucrat and his party-hack cohorts) have joined others 
with little interest in elections in dragging their feet rather than 
acting.  The Ministry's lack of communication on the subject is 
likely to exacerbate popular concerns. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The issue of security for the elections continues to come 
up.  There is no question that Guinea's police forces are inadequate 
in general and officials continue to say that any new police 
officers would be put in place not because of the elections, but 
rather to address a pressing long-term need.  However, a concerted 
 
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effort to increase police forces while preparing for highly 
anticipated elections could send a very negative message about the 
role of those police forces.  END COMMENT. 
 
KAEUPER