VZCZCXRO9834
RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG
RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHCV #1613/01 2261508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141508Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9480
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 001613 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR KLINGENSMITH, NGRANT, AND MMALLOY 
COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/WH/MCAMERON 
ENERGY FOR ALOCKWOOD 
NSC FOR DTOMLINSON 
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON CVIS CASC SOCI VE
SUBJECT: SCHOOL'S OUT FOR SUMMER: VENEZUELA'S BRAIN DRAIN 
CONTINUES 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 531 
     ¶B. CARACAS 1318 
 
THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE, BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE TREAT 
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) BRV radicalization in recent months and decreasing 
economic and physical security continue to push more 
Venezuelans to consider leaving their country (reftel A). 
Recent nationwide polls parallel informal surveys and 
anecdotal evidence which show that an increasing number of 
Venezuelans are leaving the country or preparing their "plan 
B."  Some multinational firms are also packing their bags, 
despite record profits from Venezuela's oil-fueled economic 
boom.  Post has not escaped this trend as locally engaged 
staff depart and visa appointment requests have increased 
dramatically.  Our sense is that the number of departures, 
while by no means an exodus, constitute a significant and 
growing trend by Venezuela's educated, professional class. 
 
-------------------------- 
SURVEY SAYS...I WANT TO GO 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) A recent Datanalisis poll looked at the willingness 
of Venezuelans to emigrate.  According to the poll conducted 
in June 2007, 35 percent of those surveyed said that they 
would leave the country if the opportunity to do so presented 
itself.  This represents a slight increase over 2006, when 
according to Datanalisis, 31 percent answered the question 
positively, and a large increase over 1996 when only 19 
percent affirmed a desire to leave Venezuela.  (COMMENT: 
Venezuela has long been a destination for immigration and, 
unlike many of their Latin American neighbors, Venezuelans do 
not have a history of emigrating from their country.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
Table 1: Of the Respondents Willing to Emigrate: 
 
Class   Percent    Age     Percent 
A, B    27         15-24   41 
C       41         25-35   33 
D       36         35-45   28 
E       33         45      19 
 
Source: "El Nacional," June 24, 2007 
 
¶3. (SBU) The sectors of Venezuelan society planning to leave 
tend to be younger and middle class.  (NOTE: Class A and B 
represent the upper and upper-midle segments of Venezuelan 
society, class C is considered middle class, D middler-lower 
class and E lower class.  End Note).  Venezuela's elite are 
both heavily invested in Venezuela and already live portions 
of their lives outside of the country, studying abroad, 
keeping funds offshore, and owning properties in the U.S. and 
Europe.  The poorer sectors of Venezuelan society, while 
apparently more prone to leave than the richest, are likely 
to have less access to the information and resources 
necessary to emigrate.   As people age and settle down, 
leaving their home becomes more difficult and the inverse 
relationship between desire to emigrate and age is evident in 
the right-hand columns above. 
 
------- 
TESTIFY 
------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Venezuelan immigration website 
www.mequieroir.com (I want to go) has experienced a 300 
percent increase in hits since January 2007 and the site 
contains information on immigrating to the United States, 
Canada, Australia, and Europe.  It also includes many 
testimonials of happy immigrants, including Vilma from 
Belgium: "there is a lot of personal security, good social 
benefits, excellent public transport, and much peace and 
 
CARACAS 00001613  002 OF 004 
 
 
tranquillity," Vanessa from Barcelona: "the mentality here is 
that you have to work hard to obtain what you desire," and 
Nicolas in Toronto: "we earn in dollars, we are safe, there 
isn't inflation.  Why would I be regretful?"  Like most 
immigrants, these Venezuelans sought (and according to their 
postings obtained) better lives; with safer streets, higher 
incomes, and more opportunities.  The contrast between their 
adopted homelands and Venezuela is stark, with many referring 
to the newfound security and sense of self-worth in a 
meritocracy.  Hardly any of the dozens of testimonials on the 
page refer to the political situation in Venezuela or to 
Chavez. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Many of Econoff's contacts that are considering 
leaving cite concerns for their childrens' future as a 
primary motivation.  Crime is rampant in Venezuela, 
especially in Caracas.  The mayor of the opposition-run 
Chacao municipality (arguably the safest in Caracas) recently 
estimated that murders had increased 400 percent over the 
past twenty years.  Reportedly fewer than four in one hundred 
homicides are ever solved.  In addition to the lack of 
personal security, parents are increasingly worried about 
their children's' education.  One of the five motors of 
Chavez' "21st Century Socialism" is the "moral y luces" 
(morality and enlightenment) campaign, which focuses on 
educating (or re-educating) the population with socialist 
doctrine.  Hugo Chavez' brother, Adan now runs the Education 
Ministry.  Rumors are rampant (and have been for years) that 
new laws and pending constitutional changes will give the 
state a much larger role in parenting; for example refusing 
to issue passports or identification documents to children 
under a certain age, or requiring State approval for children 
to travel abroad. 
 
¶6. (SBU/NF) While Caracas' international schools have seen 
drops in enrollment over the past eight years, in meetings 
with Econoff they claimed not to see much change between the 
2005-2006 and 2006-2007 school years.  A general trend 
involves American families leaving the country (as U.S. firms 
pull out, or draw down U.S. staff), but these departures have 
thus far been made up for by an influx of new expats from 
other parts of Latin America and Asia.  In addition, a 
director at Colegio Internacional de Caracas (CIC) (PROTECT 
THROUGHOUT) confided to econoff that they had a number of 
Venezuelan families who have enrolled their children after 
having been "deported" from the United States.  While all 
families considered their time back in Caracas to be 
temporary, so far none has been able to re-enter the United 
States. 
 
¶7. (SBU) University and high school teachers have confided to 
Econoff their surprise at the number of students trying to 
study abroad.  One of Venezuela's leading bankers admitted to 
Econoff that his daughter graduated recently from medical 
school in Venezuela and that only five of the 118 people in 
her graduating class were currently practicing medicine in 
Venezuela.  The consensus among many private high school and 
university professors seems to be that, while a year abroad 
during high school or university has been commonplace for 
upper class Venezuelans for decades, many students are now 
studying abroad and staying abroad. 
 
------------ 
WHERE TO GO? 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The United States, Canada, Australia, and European 
countries including Spain, Portugal, and Italy remain the 
favored destinations for Venezuelans (reftel).  According to 
the Venezuelan Consulate General in the Canary Islands, 
website hits have risen from 8,000 a month in 2006 to over 
25,000 monthly this year, reflecting the increase in 
Venezuelans relocating there.  The U.S. remains an important 
destination for immigrants and a recent Reuters article 
estimated that over 160,000 Venezuelans were living illegally 
 
CARACAS 00001613  003 OF 004 
 
 
in Florida.  The article also noted the increase in asylum 
applications as an example of this trend, with applications 
up from 14 in FY 1998 to 1086 in FY 2006.  In May of 2007 
there were 290 pending asylum cases in the Miami district 
office alone.  The real estate chamber in Caracas estimates 
that 15 percent of home sales in Florida are to Venezuelans. 
(COMMENT: This seems incredibly high.  END COMMENT.)  On July 
19 Century 21 hosted a sales event for condos in Miami at the 
Eurobuilding Hotel here.  A recent Wall Street Journal 
article noted an influx of Venezuelans working in the oil 
sands in Alberta and many of the international oil companies 
operating in Venezuela are sending personnel abroad as they 
draw down or pull out.  During the week of July 23, India's 
Kingfisher airlines advertised for Venezuelan pilots in local 
papers. 
 
¶9. (SBU/NF) According to the human resources consulting firm 
Marsh and McLennan (PROTECT THROUGHOUT), skilled executives 
are moving to Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.  The 
Colombian border town of Cucuta has as many as 5,000 
Venezuelans living there, supposedly including a number of 
PDVSA executives commuting to Venezuela to work.  As an 
anecdote, Marsh's director in Venezuela noted that British 
Petroleum used to occupy three floors in his building and now 
only has half of a floor.  Similarly, AIG has downsized its 
Venezuelan staff and reportedly Coca Cola now runs its 
Venezuelan operations from Colombia.  Proctor and Gamble has 
moved its Latin American headquarters to Chile and is also 
reportedly drawing down staff, including moving many 
Venezuelan personnel to offices in Chile, Colombia, and 
Mexico.  A manager in the large Venezuelan engineering firm 
Inelectra recently confided to Econoff the company's  plans 
to relocate to Panama.  The directors of Heidenreich Marine 
and Essel Propack (marine logistics companies) recently 
admitted to Conoff that they were closing up shop in 
Venezuela. 
 
--------------- 
SHORT ON TALENT 
--------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU/NF) According to Marsh, Venezuelans are willing to 
take lower salaries to get jobs abroad.  Conversely, ex-pats 
are now demanding increasingly high salaries and benefits to 
come to Venezuela.  Contacts claim that U.S. ex-pats now 
demand bullet proof cars with bodyguards and insist on living 
within a short commute of their childrens' private schools 
(almost all of which are in the Valle Arriba neighborhood 
where the Embassy and most post housing is located).  This 
may, in part explain the surge in rental costs experienced by 
Post during the past few years (reftel B). 
 
¶11. (SBU) This brain drain has led to a labor shortage among 
professionals and executives.  The help wanted section of the 
daily "El Universal" has grown in recent years from four to 
eight pages and many firms report problems finding competent 
managers.  One western executive recently commented to 
econoff that given the high demand for highly-skilled 
executives, he had to renegotiate contracts every three or 
four months, increasing salaries and benefits to keep his 
staff.  The lack of western expats willing to come to 
Venezuela has led firms to hire more Latin Americans, 
especially Argentines and Brazilians who, according to one 
human resources manager, "have a history of dealing with 
these kinds of situations." 
 
------------- 
MOVING ON OUT 
------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Post's General Services Office (GSO) recently 
surveyed international moving firms and found that pack outs 
had more than doubled between summer 2006 and 2007.  As of 
July 11, 2007, one firm admitted that it had already 
surpassed its total for 2006 and another estimated that they 
would double 2006 numbers.  Pack outs also rose significantly 
from 2005 to 2006, growing a little over 25 percent based on 
GSO's estimates. 
 
 
CARACAS 00001613  004 OF 004 
 
 
------------- 
POST AFFECTED 
------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Post has not escaped this trend.  According to the 
human resources office, 17 locally engaged staff have 
resigned to move abroad since July 2005, with plans to 
immigrate to the United Sates (6), Australia (4), Canada (2), 
France (2), Spain (2), and Argentina (1).  In addition, 
Econoff knows three other staff members planning to depart 
later this summer.  When queried, most LESs planning to leave 
cited economic uncertainty and concerns about their 
childrens' futures as their primary motivations.  Post's 
American-trained local doctor has confided to Econoff his 
growing concern about the government's role in the health 
sector and noted that many colleagues are leaving. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The waiting time for an NIV interview continues to 
grow, rising from 56 days in December 2006 to 107 days in 
March, to 126 days for a visitor visa as of August 8. 
Applicants calling for a tourist visa appointment on August 8 
will not be able to obtain their visa until December.  The 
number of calls to the NIV appointment call center are 
running between 30-35 percent above last year's numbers. 
This has led to a notable rise in the number of Embassy 
contacts seeking help to move up their visa appointments.  In 
addition, the number of "L" visa (inter-company transferee) 
applicants going to work in the United States has risen by 
over 25 percent over last year and there are significant 
increases in the use of visa categories that permit 
multi-year stays in the United States, such as student visas. 
 Officers have begun to pay special attention to these cases 
as they fear many Venezuelans may merely be setting up shell 
companies in the United States to legitimate their desire to 
immigrate. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) The screws are tightening in the Bolivarian 
Republic.  The nationalizations of the national 
telecommunications firm CANTV, Caracas' electrical utility 
EDC, and the oil Strategic Associations (and subsequent 
political firings) and plans to "revolutionize" education 
that include teaching "socialist" ideology and eliminating 
merit-based university entrance exams have had an effect on 
the population's perception of Venezeula's future.  The 
political and economic space for professional Venezuelans 
continues to shrink.  The increase in visa and asylum 
applicants, international pack outs, and LES departures 
points to the growing trend here for Venezuelans, especially 
middle and upper class professionals, to leave for greener 
pastures.  The flow of immigrants will continue to grow as 
spaces here shrink, Venezuelans become accustomed to 
immigrating, and support networks of Venezuelans already 
abroad are established. 
 
FRENCH