VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1721/01 2421655
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301655Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9088
RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001721 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP PGOV PINR AR
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL QUILTER'S VISIT TO ARGENTINA (AUGUST 16-21) 
 
REF:  Buenos Aires 1681 
 
¶1.  (U)  This message was cleared by HCFA Staffer Peter Quilter. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY:  (HCFA Staffer Peter Quilter visited Buenos Aires 
August 16-21, 2007, and met with Argentine political analysts, 
pollsters, and politicians to get their views on the political 
panorama for the October 28 presidential elections.  A spokesperson 
for Roberto Lavagna's campaign discredited early polls showing 
Cristina Kirchner as the strong front runner, stressing that real 
voting intentions could not be measured sooner than thirty days 
prior to the elections.  From Buenos Aires Mayor-elect Mauricio 
Macri's camp, National Congressman Federico Pinedo briefed on what 
he described as the current crisis of the political system and the 
various problems Kirchner's administration is facing, both 
domestically and internationally.  He said Macri will likely make a 
presidential run in 2011.  ARI National Congressman Fernando Sanchez 
voiced his belief that a new lineup in the Lower House following 
October elections could be key for new political realignments 
against the Kirchners, and also raised his concerns regarding a 
Cristina Kirchner administration.  Political analyst Ricardo Rouvier 
talked about President Kirchner's reported post-Casa Rosada 
intentions to build a new political movement, based on his current 
"Victory Front" electoral machine, and doubts about the First 
Couple's capacity to continue micromanaging the country.  The AMIA 
portion of Staffdel Quilter's visit was reported reftel.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶3. (U) House Committee on Foreign Affairs (HCFA) Staffer Peter 
Quilter was in Buenos Aires from August 16-22, for an overview of 
domestic politics and regional issues in the run-up to presidential, 
gubernatorial and legislative elections on October 28.  He met with 
a variety of elected officials, party representatives and political 
analysts.  EmbOffs accompanied Quilter on his meetings. 
 
Roberto Lavagna: no polls and more action 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Quilter met with presidential candidate Roberto Lavagna's 
spokesman Alejandro Rodriguez and Coordinator for Policies Adrian 
Nador on August 17.  Lavagna was Kirchner's first finance minister 
and is now running as the candidate of the opposition Radical (UCR) 
party.  Openly disagreeing with polls that show Cristina Kirchner as 
the first round winner for October's elections, Rodriguez recalled 
past provincial elections, such as Misiones and Tierra del Fuego, 
where none of the pollsters correctly forecast the opposition's 
victory.  He relayed what he called "off the record" conversations 
with different pollsters who  indicated a decrease in Cristina 
Kirchner's voting intention (32-34%), thus forcing a second round, 
and asserted that the real voting intention could not be ascertained 
more than thirty days prior to elections.  (Note:  Recent polling 
shows Cristina at 45-49%. End Note.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Rodriguez and Nador said Lavagna's increasing support among 
voters was a result of his efforts to travel all over the country 
and get to know people.  They said that Lavagna is focusing on three 
important areas during the campaign:  higher public security, higher 
and better employment and tax breaks for small- and medium-sized 
businesses. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although they complained about the insufficient and 
sometimes erroneous media coverage their campaign events receive, 
they expressed their optimism about Lavagna's prospects. 
 
Macri Looking at the Presidency in 2011 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) National Congressman Federico Pinedo, a member of the 
Foreign Relations Committee in the Lower House and a recognized 
leader of the PRO Bloc, a coalition between Mauricios Macri's party 
"Compromiso para el Cambio" and Ricardo Lopez Murphy's party, 
"RECREAR," explained the weakness of the political system since the 
2001-02 crisis.  Pinedo stressed the need for new political leaders 
and the systemic problem of the budget dependency of the mayors, 
which forces a direct relationship with the Presidency and not to 
the provincial Governors. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In assessing the slate of presidential candidates for 
October elections, Pinedo said he considered Roberto Lavagna as the 
center-progressive candidate with the remnants of the Radical party, 
and described Elisa Carrio as a crusading firebrand, who cannot 
break the 14 percent voting intention ceiling.  Pinedo derided 
front-runner Cristina Kirchner as someone who has psychological 
problems, is always in a bad mood, and has problems getting along 
with others.  "Off the record", Pinedo stated that Macri's people 
had made every possible effort to discourage Lopez Murphy's 
presidential candidacy and back Lavagna to lead an opposition 
coalition for October elections.  He also defined Ricardo Lopez 
Murphy as a very minor candidate because of his low approval ratings 
(around 4 percent). 
¶9. (SBU) Pinedo characterized Kirchner's administration as 
"populist, and will turn its back on the longer-run to reap 
short-term benefits instead." He said Kirchner had isolated himself 
from "the universe", and internationally had good relations only 
with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  However, he expressed 
confidence that Brazil would stand in the way of Chavez's campaign 
to become spokesman of the continent.  Pinedo also said that some 
cabinet ministers, like Foreign Minister Taiana, were afraid of 
Kirchner, and were limited in the authority they had in their daily 
work.  Asked about Cristina's alleged interest in better 
international relations, Pinedo stated Cristina had traveled more 
than Nestor Kirchner but that her purported international relations 
team (Current New York Consul General Hector Timmerman or the 
Argentine Ambassador to France (Eric Calcagno) was middling. (The 
press has speculated about a possible foreign policy position for 
current Ambassador to Spain, Carlos Bettini, but nothing about 
Calcagno. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Quilter asked about the reasons Macri's party would not be 
competing for the Presidency.  Pinedo responded that Macri had 
floated the idea of his candidacy and contracted public opinion 
surveys.  The results, according to Pinedo, were highly negative 
among voters.  Macri had decided not to risk alienating or 
disappointing the City voters who had supported him for Mayor. 
However, Pinedo reaffirmed Macri's intention to eventually run for 
President and said his party is already starting to work on 
political agreements with Governors for the 2011 elections.  Pinedo 
strongly asserted that his party is not competing against the 
Peronists, but against the Kirchnerists. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Finally, Pinedo discussed the current deep anti-U.S. 
sentiment in Argentina, explaining that most Argentines feel there 
is little the U.S. offers Argentina.  He offered that this 
perception may be a result of what he described as Washington's poor 
Latin American agenda.  While making clear that he was not a 
supporter of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, he noted that, in the 
region, the U.S. was losing ground to Chavez's populist tactics and 
rhetoric. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Fernando Sanchez: the Lower House's new composition may be key 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Quilter met with Congressman Fernando Sanchez, a young and 
talented politician who is a protg of presidential candidate Elisa 
Carrio (ARI), whom he replaced in Congress after her resignation 
earlier this year. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Sanchez emphasized his perception of a decline in the 
Kirchners' political power.  He called the corruption scandals 
"obvious" and stated they were promoted by internal administration 
disputes.  During his short time in Congress, Sanchez said he 
noticed a growing feeling of discontent with the administration, 
noticeable even among those in the President's Frente para la 
Victoria (FPV) bloc.  He said he was beginning to see a reluctance 
to vote for some of the President's bills.  He said the Peronist 
leaders do not like Kirchner because he even betrayed those that had 
originally supported him (Sergio Acevedo, former Governor in Santa 
Cruz, Gerardo Conte Grand, former PJ Congressman and Interior 
Vice-Minister for a short term in 1992, and other members of the 
former Kirchernist faction "Grupo Talcahuano"). 
 
¶14. (SBU) On Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Sanchez said he was 
serving as Carrio's advisor when he first met her in Congress and 
could observe her in action.  He said the First Lady was 
bad-tempered, very intolerant, and not very nice.  He noted her 
intelligence and her ability to persuade but said that trait was not 
in evidence of late.  He defined her prospective administration as 
"enigmatic" and said he held out little hope of her changing the 
current government style. 
 
¶15. SBU) Nevertheless, Congressman Sanchez expressed his confidence 
that a change in the makeup of the Lower House, following October 
election, could provide the nucleus for a political realignment in 
that chamber against the Kirchners.  He noted that a similar 
realignment occurred during former President Menem's administration. 
 
 
¶16. (SBU) Sanchez stated his belief that the recent spate of 
corruption scandals will not have much overall impact on public 
opinion and will not surpass the perception of corruption during 
Menem's era. 
Asked about whether there had been any possible political 
motivations regarding the pending criminal and civil charges filed 
against his political mentor and presidential candidate Elisa 
Carrio, Sanchez responded affirmatively, although he never 
criticized the work of the court and mentioned all the procedural 
steps had been made in a timely manner.  Carrio was facing charges 
of libel and slander for statements she made in connection with the 
murder of a fishing company owner in Patagonia.  (Carrio was 
acquitted of the charges on August 27.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---Ricardo Rouvier: 
Kirchner as the builder of a new political movement 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶17. (SBU)  Political analyst and sociologist Ricardo Rouvier, who 
was hired by the Kirchner administration, among others, to conduct 
opinion polls and provide advisory services, stated that although 
his latest polls showed a minor decline in Kirchner's  and Cristina 
Fernandez de Kirchner's image, Cristina's voting intention remained 
quite stable. 
 
¶18. (SBU) Rouvier said the Kirchners had a love-hate relation with 
Peronism.  They had belonged to the Peronist youth in the 1970s but 
Peron, in a famous political rally in 1974 in the Plaza de Mayo, 
literally expelled the leftist Peronists from the Plaza.  They feel 
Peronism still owes them something.  Rouvier said he believes 
President Kirchner will be working on the construction of a new 
political movement -- based on his Frente para la Victoria group 
(FPV) -- after December.  This will be something similar to the 
project President Alfonsin had in mind during the 80's when he 
talked about the "third historical movement." 
 
¶19. (SBU) Rouvier also expressed his doubts that the Kirchners had 
the necessary "psychological strength" to maintain their 
micromanagement of the country.  He said, however, that the 
Kirchners represent the most interesting political offer for 
October, mainly due to the construction of their political movement 
(FPV) that supersedes the old traditional parties. 
 
WAYNE