VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1580/01 2261217
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141217Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8899
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; ARGENTINE-VENEZUELAN TIES; GLOBAL FINANCIAL 
CRISIS' IMPACT ON ARGENTINA; 08/13/07 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend international stories are related to the current status of 
Argentine-Venezuelan relationship following the scandal of the 
800,000-dollar suitcase found at Jorge Newbery Airport; and the 
impact of the global financial crisis on Argentine economy and 
upcoming elections. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "The trap of impunity" 
 
Ricardo Kirschbaum, general editor of leading "Clarn," writes 
(08/12) "Speculation and poisoned versions about the suitcase 
scandal are aimed at finding out the destination of almost 800,000 
dollars and who made the whole thing public. Imaginative sources 
have added new accounts that could be summed up in three 
categories. 
 
"First, the Venezuelan who brought the money is, reportedly, not a 
successful oil businessman but an intelligence agent who regularly 
traveled from Buenos Aires to Montevideo to bring funds for social 
and political organizations supported by Chvez both here and in 
Uruguay. 
 
"A second rumor is linked to international politics. According to 
this version, the USG, which monitors Chvez's moves, is reported to 
have warned (local authorities) about the flight and its cargo. This 
could be related to a ferocious dispute within Kirchnerism between 
those who already know that they will not remain in power if 
Cristina wins the presidency and those who will. There is something 
else - the dispute over the airports control. 
 
"The third and prevailing version is that a payment of favors was 
made to some government official. Whatever the truth is, there is 
another element adding mystery to the facts - the involvement of the 
Yabrn network. 
 
"All this is a political bomb that has just exploded in the face of 
the government, which has distanced itself and has bluntly fired one 
of the traveling government officials. What is obvious is that the 
procedure is not unusual and that frequent impunity must have ruined 
them." 
 
- "A scandal spurring US concern" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarn," 
writes (08/11) "... The suitcase found in Jorge Newbery Airport had 
a huge impact on US newspapers. Why? 
 
"The Bush administration, Capitol Hill and investors have closely 
followed the relationship between Chvez and Kirchner and the 
suitcase does nothing but confirm how ambiguous and shadowy it is. 
 
"... The scandal does nothing but deteriorate the image of the 
Kirchner administration. While everyone so far took it for granted 
that Cristina would win the presidency, 'Los Angeles Times' 
reprinted the question by Fernando Gonzlez, from 'Clarn' - 'How 
many more blows can Cristina's lead in the opinion polls handle?' 
 
"The atmosphere does not favor the predictable image presented by 
Cristina to investors gathered in Buenos Aires during the Council of 
the Americas conference." 
 
- "The US believes the (suitcase) case will affect Cristina 
Kirchner" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacisn," writes (08/12) "... With the passing of 
hours, (Guido Alejandro) Antonini (Wilson) becomes walking proof of 
the complex relationship between the Kirchner and Chavez 
administrations in the eyes of both Republicans and Democrats... 
 
"The prevailing view among the staff of US Assistant Secretary for 
Latin America Tom Shannon is that Kirchner approached Caracas as 
much as he could to obtain as much money as possible... 
 
"A Washington source told 'La Nacisn' that '(Argentina's) close 
rapprochement to Chvez can be negative for Argentine interests, and 
in fact it is.' Democratic candidates, including Hillary Clinton, 
Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, also agree on this point... 
 
"... Peter Hakim, head of the Inter-American Dialogue studies 
center, told 'La Nacisn' 'Even if Cristina Kirchner wanted it, she 
would not find it so easy to distance herself from Venezuela and get 
closer to the US, when she will have to combine both continuity (of 
her husband's administration) and change.' 'The US will not do much 
 
and it cannot do much in terms of its ties to Argentina, to this 
administration or the next one, and much less if Argentina decides 
to continue counting on Venezuela, something which irritates 
Washington.'" 
 
- "Markets also vote" 
 
An editorial in liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" 
reads (08/13) "Argentina has been in no way immune from the plunges 
hitting world financial markets in the latter end of last week, thus 
showing that countries reluctant to globalize even on favorable 
terms are condemned to globalize involuntarily. Even Argentina's 
immunity from the specific cause of this latest global financial 
crisis... thanks to Argentina's cash-down housing culture does not 
prevent havoc on a broader front because Argentina is hit anyway by 
a US slowdown, by the general contagion and by the retreat from 
emerging markets as investment funds massively play it safe with US 
Treasury bonds, etc. 
 
"The Nstor Kirchner administration should be deeply worried by a 
crisis of these dimensions with only 10 weekends lying between now 
and election day because it threatens the global underpinnings of 
Argentina's boom of the last four years... The crisis goes beyond 
stock market bears... 
 
"This crisis may be bad news for the election campaign but the 
latter should not be allowed to interfere with crisis management. 
Argentina should be increasing its fiscal surplus in this global 
climate, not squandering it on electioneering. Apart from the fiscal 
surplus, Argentina is not entirely defenseless against the crisis - 
Argentina is not directly vulnerable to the immediate cause of the 
crisis thanks to the solid basis of its housing market... while 
Central Bank reserves top 43 billion dollars. But too much obstinacy 
in the attitude that the elections are more important than the 
crisis and the exposure to turbulence could reach dimensions which 
would lose the elections." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE