VZCZCXYZ0022
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #2686 2361212
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241212Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6238
INFO RUCNMEN/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 8060

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 002686 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: Leterme's Exit Means Further Delays Before 
Belgium Gets a New Government 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  A prolonged period of uncertainty seems 
likely to follow Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V) leader 
Leterme's August 23 decision to halt his attempt to form 
Belgium's next government.  His efforts broke down after it 
became clear that his potential coalition partners (the 
Flemish and francophone Christian Democrats and Flemish and 
francophone Liberals) could not smooth the edges off a 
sharp disagreement about the appropriate duties of the 
federal and regional administrations.  In terms of next 
steps, most observers King Albert II to ask an elder 
statesman like current European Investment Bank chairman 
Philippe Maystadt to mediate or, in the Belgian vernacular, 
"deminer."  This person's job is to clear the way for the 
next attempt to form a government, a task that could again 
fall to Leterme.  The political class is using the delay 
prior to the King's expected announcement to indulge in a 
vigorous round of the blame game.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) After hurrying home from a vacation in the South of 
France, Belgium's monarch agreed on August 23 to accept 
CD&V leader Leterme's resignation as "formateur" of 
Belgium's next government.  Leterme reached the difficult 
decision to lay down his responsibility 74 days after the 
election.  During this period, he failed to overcome 
francophone suspicions that he was insufficiently committed 
to the maintenance of a strong federal state, and a series 
of gaffes, not the least being his inability to sing the 
Belgian national anthem in French, fueled fears that he was 
at heart a closet Flemish nationalist beholden for votes to 
the NVA, a small nationalist party allied closely with 
Leterme's Christian Democrats. 
 
¶3.  (U) Added to these handicaps was a wide gulf on social 
and economic questions.   According to participants in the 
formation talks, the left-leaning francophone Christian 
Democrats (CdH) refused to support the other parties in 
reining in the costs of unemployment insurance, and in 
other free market oriented changes.  Despite this obstacle 
to an agreement, Leterme's attempt to forge a government 
broke down over the constitutional reform issue.  It became 
clear during a marathon negotiating session on August 21-22 
that the Flemish parties would not back away from demands 
for shifting greater powers to the regions, and that the 
francophones would not cease their opposition to such 
changes. 
 
¶4. (U) King Albert II is responsible for the next act in 
this drama.  Local observers expect him to name an 
"informateur" from one of the francophone parties to 
canvass the four negotiating partners on ways out of the 
current mess.  Current European Investment Bank head 
Philippe Maystadt is a leading candidate for this elder 
statesman's job, as are former Justice Minister Melchior 
Wathelet, former House of Representatives Speaker Raymond 
Langendries (all francophone Christian Democrats), and 
former Defense Minister Franois-Xavier De Donnea (a 
francophone Liberal).  Having caused the current mess, the 
francophone parties must solve it, according to NVA leader 
De Wever.  Assuming the informateur divines a way forward, 
the King would then name a new "formateur" to cobble a 
government together.  That person could well be Leterme 
again or, less likely, francophone Liberal leader Reynders, 
the other party that did especially well in the June 
elections. 
 
¶5. (U) In the meantime, Belgium's political class is busy 
pointing fingers at any and all for precipitating the 
present storm.  CdH leader Milquet is the leading bogey- 
person on the Flemish side, where her stubborn refusal to 
take part in negotiations on far-reaching constitutional 
changes is widely considered the prime source of the 
crisis.  Leterme plays the same role in the francophone 
community. 
 
¶6. (U) Comment:  No one said it would be easy to form a 
government after Belgium's June elections.  That said, the 
difficulty Leterme has encountered suggests strongly that 
the job is more complicated than most people thought.  A 
prolonged delay will mean putting off difficult issues like 
dealing with the looming Social Security crisis, and 
relatively straightforward issues like deciding who will 
represent Belgium at UNGA.  End Comment. 
BUSH