VZCZCXRO9118
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0777 2141034
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021034Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0167
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0414
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0072

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000777 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E - RMEYERS 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA - SKHANDAGLE 
FOR DCHA/FFP/DP - SDOSHANJH, PNOVICK 
PRETORIA USAID/OFDA/SARO - HHALE 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/EA/FFP - NESTES, DGORDON 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR RMA, DHA, IFRC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR PREL SOCI MA
SUBJECT:  CROP REPORTS FORECAST ACUTE RICE SHORTAGES 
 
REF:  ANTAN 292 and previous 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  According to harvest forecasters in the Government of 
Madagascar's (GOM) Prime Minister's office, Madagascar's severe 
2006-07 cyclone season destroyed the equivalent of 60,000 tons of 
rice (reftels).  Already an annual rice importer, Madagascar will 
likely need almost 300,000 tons of imports to meet demand in the 
season of penury between September and December.  Remote regions in 
the northeast and southeast, those hardest hit by flooding, will 
face particularly exacerbated shortages.  While predicting the need 
for imports, the GOM is also leery given increases in worldwide rice 
prices, particularly from usual sources in Pakistan and Thailand. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  EmbOffs met July 25 with Bertine Razaiarimanana and Patrick 
Rasolofo in the Prime Minister's rural development office. 
Razaiarimanana is Secretary General of the Rural Development 
Assistance project and Rasolofo is Director of a monitoring unit for 
rice harvest data and other rural food security and development 
trends  hey reported rice fields equivalent to 60,000 tons were 
destroyed during the cyclone season, elevating Madagascar's annual 
import needs from 200,000 tons to close to 300,000 tons to meet 
demand.  The damaged fields are centered in remote areas of 
northeast and southeast Madagascar, where repeated cyclones in late 
2006 and early 2007 caused severe flooding. 
 
¶3.  Rasolofo noted high world oil prices will keep transportation 
costs high, thus exacerbating rice prices in remote areas.  He also 
reported that his research indicated a world rice price rise, 
particularly from Madagascar's usual suppliers like Pakistan and 
Thailand.  USAID and NGO partners continue to work extensively in 
Madagascar under the PL-480 program to help farmers increase yields 
with improved methods. 
 
TIKO MANIPULATING RICE PRICE? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  In numerous regions throughout Madagascar, hoarding of rice 
stocks for speculation on higher prices has been widely reported. 
In the "rice bowl" of Lake Aloatra, rice farming associations report 
President Marc Ravalomanana's TIKO rice mill, Fanampy, is trying to 
force producers to accept unduly low prices.  Beyond their simple 
business logic of making a profit, Fanampy is also alleged to have 
the political motive of keeping prices low for consumers.  The 
regional government official has reportedly limited access for 
trucks to the area to prevent producers from selling to other 
buyers.  The stand-off continues, with farmers holding their supply 
in community silos, speculating on higher future prices. 
 
¶5. COMMENT:  Cyclones and flooding are frequently two-part 
disasters.  The first is the dramatic loss of lives and habitations 
directly caused by the event.  The second is the damage to 
livelihoods that often may not be apparent until the next harvest 
season.  It is this "second part" of the flood disaster that 
Madagascar is now approaching.  END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY