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Viewing cable 07ANKARA2004, TURKEY'S NEW PARLIAMENT CONVENES TO ELECT SPEAKER

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ANKARA2004 2007-08-06 10:20 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO2135
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAK #2004/01 2181020
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061020Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3279
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5//
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002004 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW PARLIAMENT CONVENES TO ELECT SPEAKER 
AND FORM NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
1. (U) This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
2. (SBU) Summary. Turkey's newly elected MPs took their oaths 
without incident on August 4 and will convene again on August 
9 to begin electing a Speaker and forming a government.  PM 
Erdogan is expected to announce his new cabinet soon after 
President Sezer re-appoints him prime minister, likely to 
occur August 6.  A cabinet shake-up is rumoured, with new 
faces to reflect the ruling Justice and Development Party's 
(AKP) more centrist image.  How the pieces fit may provide 
another clue regarding FM Gul's still fuzzy presidential 
plans; he reportedly may remain foreign minister or be 
elected Speaker.  Turkey could have a new Speaker and 
government as early as August 9.  MPs may then take a ten day 
break before launching the 30-day presidential election 
process.  End Summary. 
 
3. (SBU) Turkey's 549 MPs were sworn in at a decorous, 
ten-hour ceremony on August 4.  All eyes were on 21 
pro-Kurdish deputies, elected as independents but now 
officially recognized as Democratic Society Party (DTP) MPs; 
in 1994, their colleagues were ejected from parliament for 
reciting the oath in Kurdish and wearing terrorist PKK 
colors.  This time, all used Turkish, taking their seats 
alongside MPs from the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), 
Republican People's Party (CHP), Democratic Left Party (DSP) 
(which separated from CHP before the ceremony) and AKP.  DTP 
leader Ahmet Turk made a point of shaking MHP Chairman Devlet 
Bahceli's hand in a goodwill gesture that set a harmonious 
tone for the new parliament.  Given contentious agenda items 
including constitutional reform and addressing Turkey's 
Kurdish question, commentators viewed the constructive start 
as promising. 
 
AND THE NEW SPEAKER IS... 
 
4. (U) Nominations for Speaker are underway, with a vote 
possible as early as August 9.  The election must be 
completed by August 13.  Former Speaker Bulent Arinc has said 
he will not run; he will likely be appointed a Deputy PM. 
AKP deputies reportedly will vote on the party's candidate, 
with former Justice Minister Cemil Cicek the front runner. 
Koksal Toptan, Vecdi Gonul, Ulku Gunay, Murat Basesgioglu and 
Mehmet Ali Sahin are also possible candidates.  Even Abdullah 
Gul's name has been mentioned.  Depending on AKP's candidate, 
MHP may also nominate an MP.  AKP reportedly offered one of 
its four Vice Speaker positions to MHP and may also offer one 
to CHP. 
 
NEW FACES IN THE CABINET 
 
5. (SBU) President Sezer is expected to re-appoint Erdogan 
prime minister on August 6.  Erdogan reportedly has his 
cabinet nominations in hand, ready to present to Sezer for 
approval.  Sezer's approval is expected, meaning Turkey could 
have a new government as early as August 7.  If a cabinet 
cannot be formed within 45 days of electing a Speaker, new 
elections may be called, however, the process is expected to 
proceed smoothly.  Within a week of the cabinet's 
appointment, the prime minister must read the government's 
program to parliament.  MPs will take a vote of confidence 
after approximately five days to complete the procedure. 
 
6. (U)  Contacts predict a cabinet shake-up, with new faces 
designed in part to reassure the public and secular 
institutions of AKP's more centrist approach.  Where Gul 
falls in the mix will be key; he may hold the foreign 
minister position to keep his presidential options open or 
stand as AKP's Speaker candidate.  Ali Babacan could step in 
as foreign minister or remain in charge of Turkey's EU 
accession process.  If the EU slot opens up, AKP insider 
Saban Disli, Suat Kiniklioglu, Cevdet Yilmaz or Zeynep Dagi 
are possible contenders.  Mehmet Simsek, a former Merrill 
Lynch advisor and Embassy FSN, may be named Economic 
Minister, with Kemal Unakitan remaining Finance Minister. 
Mehmet Saglam is a possible candidate for Education Minister, 
and Idris Naim Sahin may replace Abdulkadir Aksu as Interior 
Minister.  Three women MPs reportedly will take State 
Minister positions, with Edibe Sozen expected to be take the 
Media Affairs portfolio, and Selma Kavaf and Nimet Cubukcu 
possible contenders for Women's Affairs and Culture 
 
ANKARA 00002004  002 OF 002 
 
 
portfolios. 
 
7. (U) Former ministers will likely move to head 
parliamentary committees or high-level positions at AKP 
headquarters.  Arinc reportedly is unlikely to land the 
Justice or Interior Ministry due to Sezer's objection but may 
end up as Labor Minister and one of several Deputy PMs. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
MCELDOWNEY