VZCZCXRO0351
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #1996/01 2150957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030957Z AUG 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3263
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3110
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 2190
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - JROSE 
USDA/FAS/OFSO/Dever 
USDA/FAS/OCRA/Flemings 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
REF: ANKARA 685 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EAGR ENRG ECON TU
SUBJECT: THE WIDENING EFFECTS OF TURKEY'S DROUGHT 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Turkey is experiencing its hottest and driest 
summer in 78 years, and the drought is having a widening impact 
across the country.  Coming after a dry winter that failed to fill 
water reservoirs, the drought has caused severe water shortages, 
particularly in Ankara province, which instituted water rationing on 
August 1.  Forest fires have hit central and western Turkey, 
including coastal tourism zones. Hydro-electricity production is 
dropping at the same time as electricity consumption is increasing, 
resulting in higher prices and possible brownouts.  Turkey's 
agricultural harvest will be hit hard, and food imports -- and 
prices -- will increase. The Central Bank Governor cited increasing 
food and electricity prices from the drought as reasons he may not 
be able to cut interest rates soon.  Ankara officials have expressed 
concern about potential public health problems due to a shortage of 
potable water.  While GOT officials express confidence that they can 
contain the drought's negative impact, public outcry over long-term 
water rationing, higher prices, electricity shortages and a 
perceived lack of timely action could catch the new government by 
surprise.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Turkey is currently experiencing a record dry spell, 
culminating in one of the hottest and driest summers in 78 years. 
Turkey's State Water Works (DSI) Department Head for Dams, Hasan 
Ozlu, told us on July 30 that Turkey has received 16.5% less rain in 
2007 than 2006, resulting in water levels in reservoirs that are 12% 
lower than the same period last year.  Ozlu noted that this is not 
the first time that Turkey has faced drought and it is prepared to 
take quick action to minimize the impact of the water shortage. 
 
Ankara's Water Crisis 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Murat Dogru, senior advisor to Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek, 
told us that there are only 170 million cubic-meters of water 
remaining in Ankara's reserves, and Ankara's daily water use is 
approximately one million cubic meters.  If it does not rain, Ankara 
only has about five months worth of water reserves remaining.  In 
addition, winter snowfall, which usually provides the bulk of 
Ankara's water reserves for the coming summer, will not come in time 
to alleviate this year's problems.  With the planned rationing, 
which will completely shut off water supplies alternatively to the 
north and south regions of the city every two days, water usage is 
planned to be cut to 500,000 cubic-meters daily. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ankara Municipality's Water Supply Unit (ASKI) officials 
told us that DSI has allocated an extra 166 million cubic meters 
from Kesik Kopru dam (near Kirsehir in East Central Anatolia) on the 
Kizilirmak River, but the pipes being constructed to provide this 
extra supply to users will not be ready until December 2007 
(although DSI officials told us it could be completed in October). 
The Ankara Municipality is also building water pumping stations to 
facilitate the distribution.  Ankara will have 750,000 cubic meters 
of water daily from this pipeline once the project is completed. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ankara is not the only city facing water shortages and 
possible rationing.  Water reserves in the reservoirs of the Edirne, 
Tekirdag and Kirklareli provinces are only at 47% capacity.  In 
addition, the water level of the Manyas Lake in northwest Turkey 
near Balikesir, one of Turkey's most important bodies of water, has 
shrunk by more than 2 kilometers, which raises concern, particularly 
for area fishermen. 
 
Agricultural Impact 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) DSI Head Ozlu argued that because only 5 million of 
Turkey's 25 million total hectares of agricultural land require 
irrigation, the drought's direct impact on farming is not 
widespread.  According to him, the heat wave has hurt farms mostly 
in Turkey's western region, including the Menderes basin near the 
Aegean coast.  Grape and olive orchards in this region and fig 
producers have been seriously impacted, affecting not only the 
producers but also exporters.  Ozlu says the east and southeast 
regions received a substantial amount of rain throughout the season, 
thereby leveling the amount of total water reserves in Turkey. 
 
¶7. (SBU) DSI, in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture and 
Rural Affairs (MARA), is providing water to farms from Turkey's 
water reserves.  In addition, in order to minimize the drought's 
impact on the harvest, DSI officials have worked with farmers to 
 
ANKARA 00001996  002 OF 003 
 
 
identify wasteful practices while encouraging drip irrigation 
techniques to funnel water to fruit harvesting.  DSI officials told 
us that the farmers and government officials have reached a 
consensus on the techniques and measures to be employed, but a 
resulting decline in this year's harvests cannot be avoided. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Agriculture officials, however, paint a much more negative 
picture and tell us that all field crops grown in the rain-fed 
Central Anatolia, Aegean, and Marmara regions have been seriously 
affected.  Reduced harvests are expected for grains, industrial 
crops such as cotton, sunflower, and sugar beets, fodder crops, and 
all types of fresh fruits and vegetables.   In addition, Turkey is 
expected to increase its annual average wheat imports from 1 MMT to 
at least 2 MMT this year to meet its domestic demand, including for 
flour production and pasta exports.  Turkey may also import some 
corn in 2007, depending on the prices of other feed grains such as 
wheat and barley, and is also projected to import significant 
quantities of rice and cotton. 
 
Consequences of a Smaller Harvest 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) During a July 30 meeting (see SEPTEL), Central Bank 
Governor Durmus Yilmaz told us that even the bank's ability to 
control inflation in Turkey has been affected by the weather. 
Yilmaz said that one reason he may not be able to cut interest rates 
as quickly as the GOT and business sectors want is because he 
expects increased food and electricity prices resulting from the 
drought. 
 
Drought, Heat Increase Incidence of Forest Fires 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶10. (SBU) DSI and municipal officials are confident that despite the 
water shortage and the heat wave, there is sufficient water 
available for battling forest fires.  Recently fires erupted in 
Alanya/Antalya, Bodrum, and Marmaris in major coastal tourism 
centers, and also in Ankara's Oran forest, which is located within 
the heart of the capital.  The Ankara fire department conceded that 
putting out the Oran fire was difficult due to the heat and wind. 
 
 
Potable Water Shortages May Affect Public Health 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Ankara's distance from Turkey's major water reserves makes 
it a difficult area to which to pump water during times of drought. 
It is not only suffering from a lack of water supply, but also from 
a lack of potable water.  Low-income families still rely on tap 
water for drinking and officials project that water rationing will 
increase water-born health problems. 
 
Electricity Price Increases/Power Cuts Possible 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Contrary to speculation, Ozlu refuted concerns that Turkey 
would also experience sporadic electricity shortages throughout the 
summer.  Hydropower plants produce 30% of Turkey's electricity but 
Ozlu said any shortages from these generators could be met by 
increasing the capacity in other types of power facilities such as 
thermal power plants.  He admitted, however, that there would be an 
increase in cost, which will be passed to consumers.  Turkish 
manufacturing industry will be negatively affected by any price 
hikes in electricity. Milliyet daily reported on July 31 that Energy 
Minister Guler chaired an electricity summit to discuss increased 
electricity consumption caused by the heat wave.  Turkey's average 
electricity consumption is 520,000 megawatt-hours per day. 
Consumption increased to 570,000 megawatt-hours in 2007 and peaked 
at 600,000 megawatt-hours during the week of July 22.  In a press 
conference after the meeting, Guler said that even though 
electricity consumption is higher than expected, electricity cuts 
were not needed and new investments were being made to increase 
production alternatives to hydropower. 
 
Paying the Costs 
---------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Comment:  Short-term losses from the drought will be felt 
first by farmers and exporters, then by Turkish consumers hit by 
increased food and electricity prices.  There may also be a 
 
ANKARA 00001996  003 OF 003 
 
 
political cost.  Experts had been warning about water shortages 
since Ankara received an abnormally small amount of snowfall last 
winter, but government officials have been focused on elections and 
other political issues.  Former government officials and experts are 
criticizing Mayor Gokcek for refusing to take unpopular action on 
water prior to the July 22 elections for fear it could have 
diminished the AK Party's showing.  Four Ankara municipality 
officials recently resigned over the Mayor's water rationing plan. 
The government also is being criticized for not starting 
construction of the new Ankara water supply pipe project before May, 
delaying its completion (and the lifting of water rationing) until 
December.  There is potential for public outcry over long-term water 
rationing, higher prices, electrical shortages and the perceived 
lack of timely action to catch the new government by surprise.  End 
Comment.