VZCZCXRO0413
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2636/01 2390501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 270501Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7568
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2972
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4014
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/W FOR A/AID 
DCHA/AA WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
AFR/AA LPIERSON, KALMQUIST 
DCHA/OFDA GGOTTLIEB, KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, PMCCABE 
AFR/EA KNELSON 
DCHA/FFP WHAMMINK JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, PBERTOLIN 
STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S AF FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, 
AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, A/S PRM SAUERBREY, PRM 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH, AND 
LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ARO JMYER, RFFPO, REDSO/ESA 
ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PLERNER 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
NSC FOR CHUDSON AND JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SENV EAGR ET
SUBJECT: 2007 BELG SEASON PRE-HARVEST ASSESSMENT IN 
ETHIOPIA 
 
¶1. SUMMARY.  The Disaster Prevention Preparedness Agency 
(DPPA) led multi-agency teams that conducted a pre- 
harvest and needs assessment of the 2007 Belg season 
between June 24 and July 14, 2007.  This involved 15 
teams visiting all Belg producing and pastoral areas 
in the country.  The purpose was to assess the 
outcome of this season and its impact on food 
security in the cropping and pastoral areas.  The 
assessment teams consulted with all relevant offices 
at all levels to obtain pre-harvest yield estimates, 
livestock performance, pasture and water 
availability, market price trends and human health 
conditions.  Taking into account all sources of food 
and income, the teams provided a comprehensive 
picture of the prospect of food security for the 
coming one year.  The teams reported their findings 
to the National Early Warning Working Group, DPPA 
and donors on July 17, 2007.  The assessment teams 
were delayed in access to conflict areas of Somali 
Region and the preliminary reports have only been 
presented on August 13, 2007 (will be reported 
SEPTEL).  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. In general Belg rainfall performance in Afar, 
Amhara, Oromia and Tigray Regions was rated as poor 
although pocket areas have received normal rainfall 
in all four regions.  The poor performance of the 
2007 Belg season in much of the Afar Region has 
caused shortage of pasture and water.  The physical 
condition of livestock has also deteriorated.  In 
other Regions, the late onset and early cessation of 
the rains, excessive rains, flood and hailstorm 
damage have caused production losses.  Vulnerable 
households are not able to compensate for the crop 
and livestock production losses with other sources 
of income.  The assessment teams estimate that 
relief intervention for approximately 600,000 people 
will be required during the period of August to 
December 2007, in addition to the 7.2 million 
chronically food insecure assisted by the Productive 
Safety Net Program (PSNP). This estimate does not 
include Somali Region for which the assessment 
figures have not yet been released. 
 
--------------------------- 
Weather and Crop production 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. The performance of 2007 Belg crop production was 
rated as below average in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray 
Regions due to poor performance of the rains. 
However, the crop production performance is 
promising and bumper harvest is anticipated in the 
Southern Nation Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) 
Region.  Belg crop performance is poor especially in 
lowlands of Oromia Region.  Major crops affected by 
weather adversities are maize, haricot bean, wheat, 
barely and teff.  Factors that have attributed for 
poor crop production are moisture stress, shortage 
of farm inputs, incidence of crop pest and diseases. 
There was a report of crop damage by disease (rust) 
and pest (bollworms) at vegetative, flowering and 
fruit setting stages on wheat and barley and pulses 
in Oromia Region.  Furthermore, the excess rainfall 
may have a negative implication on the performance 
of the crops associated with disease, flood and land 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002636  002 OF 003 
 
 
slides. 
 
------------------- 
Livestock Condition 
------------------- 
 
¶4. As a result of the poor performance of Belg 
rains, grassland and browse conditions deteriorated 
rapidly in most areas except the seasonally flooded 
kebeles along the Awash River in Afar Region.  Tree 
locust infestation in Zone 5 and Zone 2 further 
aggravated the scarcity of pasture for livestock. 
The team estimated 40,000 - to 60,000 livestock are 
concentrated in the Cheffa Valley in search of 
pasture and water.  The assessment team reported 
that the Belg failure has been the cause for 
shortage of water and pasture.  As a result, the 
drought claimed about 5-10 percent of the livestock 
population in Afar Region. 
 
¶5. In Oromia Region, availability of pasture and 
browse is poor in the Lowlands of Borena and Guji 
Zones.  Due to a shortage of pasture, early 
migration of livestock takes place in lowlands of 
Borena and Guji Zones.  There is a concern that 
pasture availability is decreasing as a result of 
expansion of farm land in Bale Zone.  Livestock 
physical condition is below normal in pocket areas 
of Borena, Guji, West Arsi and North Shewa Zones. 
An unidentified camel disease outbreak was reported 
in the Borena Zone of Oromia Region.  There is no 
vaccine or treatment that can cure the disease. 
Affected animals die without showing any symptoms. 
Besides, an unusual incidence of sheep-pox has 
affected many sheep in West Arsi. 
 
¶6. In SNNP region, adequate water and pasture is 
available and no unusual livestock diseases 
reported; however, trypanosomiasis is reported from 
Dawuro Zone. 
 
----- 
Water 
----- 
 
¶7. As result of the 2007 Belg failure in most parts 
of the Afar Region, a significant decline in yields 
and in some cases a complete drying up of the water 
sources are reported.  Serious water shortages were 
also reported, mainly in those woredas known to be 
chronically water deficit (Eli dare woreda), which 
were supported with water tanks for a number of 
years have now discontinued. Availability of water 
is poor in Lowland Borena and Guji Zones. 
 
------ 
Market 
------ 
 
¶8. The price of staple food and livestock is still 
high in all regions.  However, the team that went to 
Afar Region reported that due to poor physical 
condition of the livestock, prices are below normal. 
 
------------ 
Human health 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002636  003 OF 003 
 
 
------------ 
 
¶9. Except in Tigray, Gambella and Benshangul 
Regions, acute watery diarrhea (AWD or cholera) is 
on the rise in all parts of the country.  In 17 
woredas of Afar Region, a total of 9,005 AWD cases 
were registered, of which 335 people reported to 
have died since April 2007.  The Tigray Regional Health 
Bureau observed an "unidentified disease" in Alamata 
woreda in recent months.  Malnutrition problems were 
reported from Bale, Arsi, East Shoa, East and West 
Hararghe Zones of Oromia Region.  A nutrition survey 
in Bona woreda of SNNP Region showed 16.4 percent 
global acute malnutrition.  Two thousand five 
hundred refugees from Kenya are also experiencing 
serious food shortage problem in Dire Woreda of 
Oromia Region. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Food Security Prospects For July 2007 - June 2008 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶10. The food security prospect of Belg dependent 
woredas is rated as below normal with the exception 
of SNNP Region.  Due to late onset and early 
cessation of the rains, excessive rains, flood and 
hailstorm damage production losses are expected. 
Most of the losses could not be compensated by the 
other sources of income.  As a result, the 
assessment teams estimate that relief intervention 
for approximately 600,000 persons in the assessed 
Belg dependent areas will be required during 
August to December 2007. 
 
YAMAMOTO