VZCZCXRO2065
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2566/01 2281114
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161114Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7471
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2964
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4005
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 002566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/W DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB 
AFR/AA KALMQUIST, WWARREN, JBORNS 
DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL 
AFR/EA KNELSON, BDUNFORD 
DCHA/FFP WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN, PMOHAN, MANDERSON, PBERTOLIN 
STATE DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND PRM/AFR 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA 
ROME FOR OHA 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
USUN FOR TMALY 
NSC FOR PMARCHAN, TSHORTLEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR ET PHUM PGOV PREF MOPS
REF:  ADDIS ABABA 3226 
 
SUBJECT:  ETHIOPIA DISASTER DECLARATION: IMMINENT 
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN SOMALI REGION 
 
¶1. ACTION REQUEST: Ambassador requests Department's 
concurrence to announce disaster declaration from Addis 
Ababa, rather than from Washington.  If Department concurs, 
Post seeks to make this announcement on Friday, August 17. 
END ACTION REQUEST. 
 
¶2. SUMMARY.  Concerns that a severe humanitarian crisis may 
be imminent in Ethiopia's Somali Region are growing.  The 
confluence of Government of Ethiopia (GOE) policies in the 
Region's Ogaden area are contributing elements to the 
increasingly man-made crisis along with actions in the 
region by the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). 
These three policies are:  a) restricting commercial trade 
to these areas as part of the ongoing security campaign; b) 
allowing bureaucratic reorganizations to delay delivery of 
emergency food assistance; and c) the movement of 
pastoralist populations and their herds into designated 
settlement areas.  ONLF elements have also targeted 
civilians, harassed and threatened NGOs, and may be placing 
landmines on roads in the Ogaden. 
 
¶3. In light of the deteriorating humanitarian conditions, 
coupled with projected humanitarian needs in food, water, 
nutrition and health interventions, the U.S. Ambassador 
hereby declares that a complex emergency exists in the 
Somali Region of Ethiopia.  Accordingly, activities that 
address urgent humanitarian needs should be eligible for 
funding under USAID's International Disaster Assistance. 
 
¶4. This disaster declaration for the Somali Region 
supplements the general disaster re-declaration for 
Ethiopia (reftel) made at the beginning of the fiscal year 
for ongoing humanitarian assistance in other areas. 
Updated humanitarian reporting for Ethiopia on emerging 
humanitarian hotspots and flood-affected areas will be 
forthcoming (septel) as additional information becomes 
available.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
OVERALL SITUATION - JUST HOW BAD IS IT? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  The conflict-related situation is greatly affecting the 
humanitarian outlook in the Ogaden.  GOE policies in 
response to increased attacks by the ONLF restrict the 
movement of people and trade, and humanitarian assistance 
in the Ogaden areas of the region remain a concern. 
Despite recent good rains, the convergence of multiple 
shocks have strained livestock herds and resulted in 
increased vulnerability to famine and destitution through 
loss of livelihoods.  The cumulative shocks affecting this 
area includes a decade of drought, conflict, high rates of 
malnutrition, steadily increasing food prices, floods, and 
Rift Valley fever.  The household economy studies of the 
area indicate 100 percent of the population depends on 
commercial markets for the majority of their food.  For all 
groups, and particularly pastoralists, the biggest 
expenditure items are staple foods.  Prior to the current 
military operations, food prices were already high; 
informal market surveys now indicate tripling of many of 
the already high prices since June.  The prevention of 
almost all commercial imports to the area and associated 
price increases on food and non-food commodities, the 
suspension of food distributions until recently, and the 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002566  002 OF 005 
 
 
forced/restricted movement of pastoralists, threaten to 
completely exhaust fragile coping mechanisms in areas of 
Somali Region.  Preliminary assessments from joint GOE-UN- 
NGO teams of parts of the area (Korahe, Warder, Gode) 
indicate pre-famine conditions (consumption of livestock, 
exceedingly high food grain prices, consumption of wild 
grasses/grains, etc.). 
 
¶6. Increased prevalence of acute watery diarrhea (AWD, or 
cholera) and corresponding crisis-level case fatality rates 
and malnutrition are emerging in locations like Fik and 
Jijiga.  Comprehensive data on specific rates of AWD has 
been difficult to obtain, due to current GOE sensitivities 
and limited humanitarian access.  However, international 
agencies are reporting pockets of growing malnutrition in 
both the Ogaden and non-Ogaden areas, with admission rates 
doubling in some community therapeutic feeding centers.  Of 
particular concern are areas that are non-accessible due to 
security operations, as minimal information is available. 
In this semi-arid region, the capping of water sources 
presents an immediate, life-threatening humanitarian 
concern for communities affected.  Forced, restricted, or 
even voluntary mass movement of pastoralists also threatens 
to deplete grazing lands and increase livestock disease 
transfer rates.  [NOTE: Pasture conditions have been able 
to sustain livestock in rural areas to date only due to 
good 2006 short Deyr rains, but if livestock are moved into 
concentrated areas, this will not last.  END NOTE.] 
Increased population density in urban or settlement areas 
is also expected to aggravate AWD conditions already 
present in the region.  The likelihood of local flooding, 
particularly around Gode and Fik, pose an additional 
concern. 
 
¶7. Ongoing GOE security operations and access restrictions 
continue to limit detailed reporting and verification of 
overall conditions.  Humanitarian access is limited, and 
recent landmine fatalities underscore the challenges 
operational humanitarian agencies are facing. 
At the same time, anecdotal reports are increasing by an 
array of humanitarian actors of human rights violations 
purportedly by both parties to the conflict--the Ethiopian 
military and the ONLF--in these areas, including extra- 
judicial killings, rape, burning of villages, and forced 
relocation of pastoralists and other populations.  There 
have also been recent reports that certain access to basic 
services are being denied in some villages, such as the 
capping of water sources and refusing delivery of medical 
supplies.  Underlying concerns sparked by the increasing 
volume of anecdotal reports that the military campaigns are 
starving populations and forcing relocation of populations 
into designated areas have rendered the GOE increasingly 
vulnerable to media, donor, UN, and international NGO 
concerns over human rights violations. 
 
---------------------------- 
HUMANITARIAN FOOD ASSISTANCE 
- ONLY A DROP IN THE BUCKET 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8.  In the Somali Region, 100 percent of the population 
relies on commercial food for survival.  Almost no 
commercial food aid is getting into the five Ogadeni zones 
(Fik, Degehabur, Gode, Korahe and Warder) of the Somali 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002566  003 OF 005 
 
 
Region where GOE military operations are underway.  The 
miniscule trickles of commercial goods that may be getting 
through to a few urban areas are restricted to the urban 
areas only.  The GOE has advised the United Nations and 
other humanitarian actors that the commercial restrictions 
must be enforced to limit contraband, particularly supplies 
and weapons going to the ONLF.  The general consensus among 
aid agencies is that if the commercial restrictions are not 
lifted immediately, the humanitarian situation will 
eventually deteriorate to pre-famine or famine-like 
conditions and affect all communities equally.  Emergency 
food assistance will not be able to fill this gap, even if 
access is permitted.  The current coping mechanism for 
pastoralists in these areas is to live off the meat and 
milk of their animals, but herd size could be rapidly 
depleted in rural areas should this continue, as it is 
considered the coping mechanism of last resort.  In 
addition, aid agencies estimate that a large percentage of 
the population have moved to urban areas in search of 
limited food available commercially in some urban areas 
like Jijiga. 
 
¶9. Although the GOE's federal Disaster Prevention and 
Preparedness Agency (DPPA) recently confirmed that 42 
trucks are currently en route within the region, no food 
aid has actually been distributed in the Ogaden areas of 
the Somali Region since December 2006.  [NOTE: There have 
been recent food distributions to the non-Ogadeni areas of 
the Somali Region.  END NOTE.]  Part of a one-month ration 
(1,900 MT out of 4,000 MT) is currently en route to the 
Ogaden for the 296,980 beneficiaries identified during the 
November 2006 assessment.  As of August 9, no food aid from 
the 42 trucks had reached actual distribution points, 
primarily due to repeated delays at military checkpoints. 
The recent household economy assessment, which undertook 
field work in limited areas of two of the five zones, 
indicates that 100 percent of the population is severely 
affected with no access to food.  The 1,900 MT underway 
represents 6 percent of the total needs in the affected 
areas for one month, should the commercial restrictions 
remain. 
 
¶10. In recent meetings, WFP has stressed that significant 
tonnage is required for these areas; even if the small 
amount of food aid currently en route reaches beneficiary 
populations, this represents only a "drop in the bucket" 
and is a very temporary stopgap measure.  WFP and DPPA 
estimate that 30,000 MT per month of commodities in the 
restricted zones is required to fully support food needs 
should the commercial restrictions continue.  [COMMENT: It 
is not clear if the magnitude of food required in such a 
circumstance would be immediately available in-country, nor 
is it likely that operations of this nature can reach the 
beneficiaries in a timely manner, given current delay 
tactics in the movement of the food.  The only solution 
that could immediately mitigate the slide into pre-famine 
or famine conditions will be the immediate easing of 
commercial restrictions in all areas of the region.  END 
COMMENT.] 
 
------------------------------------- 
EXTREMELY LIMITED HUMANITARIAN ACCESS 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002566  004 OF 005 
 
 
¶11. Despite recent GOE press statements urging agencies to 
work in the Somali Region with unlimited access, the 
reality on the ground is much different.  Very few NGOs are 
operating in the military zones, because almost all 
movements are restricted due to security reasons.  Access 
for UN agencies is virtually non-existent in military 
areas.  WFP noted that although monitoring food aid 
deliveries is critical, it is currently impossible due to 
the underlying security conditions.  Although WFP has 
invited local NGOs to monitor on their behalf, no one has 
accepted, due to underlying fears of security implications, 
though agencies are willing to share the limited 
information they possess. 
 
¶12. Following the July 29 tragedy in which three staff from 
the USAID-supported local NGO partner Ogaden Welfare 
Development Agency (OWDA) were killed from a landmine 
between Degehamedo and Degehabur towns, concerns for safe 
humanitarian access have increased.  There are growing 
reports, albeit unconfirmed, that additional landmines are 
being planted on many of the main roads in the Ogaden 
areas, since the underlying assumption is that only the 
military are using the roads rather than the usual 
commercial traffic and, to a lesser extent, aid agencies. 
 
¶13. Creating safe humanitarian operational space will 
become increasingly important should the conditions 
continue to deteriorate.  NGOs and UN agencies are working 
to determine best entry or re-entry points into the Ogaden 
areas to provide health, nutrition and water interventions. 
Some Somali Region government ministries have urged aid 
agencies to conduct humanitarian operations, recognizing 
that the humanitarian needs will surpass local capacities 
should the commercial restrictions remain.  Agencies are 
working on modalities to begin humanitarian interventions 
in locations as close to the non-accessible areas as 
possible, in the hopes that if/when more widespread access 
to the Ogaden areas is possible, agencies can be partially 
pre-positioned. 
 
¶14.  Donors, UN agencies, and NGOs continue to meet weekly 
to share information on the evolving situation.  The U.S. 
Ambassador has also convened two meetings for donors and 
relevant agencies on the Somali region situation.  USAID, 
in conjunction with other donors and UNOCHA, is advocating 
the formation of a Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster 
Risk Management working group, which would be a formal 
forum in which donors and the UN can engage with each other 
and the government on humanitarian and disaster risk 
management issues.  Currently, information-sharing is 
informal, and engagement with the government on disaster 
issues is on a bilateral basis, particularly for the Somali 
Region. 
 
-------------------- 
DISASTER DECLARATION 
-------------------- 
 
¶15. In light of current and increased projected needs in 
Somali Region of Ethiopia, I hereby declare that a complex 
emergency situation exists.  Ongoing commercial 
restrictions, limited operational access due to internal 
security operations and population displacement has 
exacerbated the plight of the already vulnerable. 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002566  005 OF 005 
 
 
Accordingly, activities which address urgent humanitarian 
needs should continue to be eligible for funding under 
USAID's International Disaster Assistance. 
 
YAMAMOTO