VZCZCXRO2533
RR RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0538 2062347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 252347Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4500
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1406
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4892
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0551
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000538 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP, INR, 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: POLLS INDICATE PUBLIC DISAFFECTION WITH LABOUR BECOMING 
EMBEDDED 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) Recent political polling indicates the emergence of an 
embedded trend against the ruling Labour Party as it struggles to 
close the sizeable gap in popularity with the rival opposition 
National Party. Buttressing this trend is Labour Party leader and 
Prime Minster Helen Clark's diminished personal polling versus the 
popular National Party leader, John Key. Although the next election 
is not scheduled until late 2008, the polls suggest the mood of the 
electorate appears to be increasingly hardening against Labour and 
Clark herself. End Summary 
Polls shows mood against Labour and Clark entrenched 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶2. (SBU) NZ political poll results over past months indicate that a 
trend is developing against the current Government as it struggles 
against the growing popularity of the National Party and its adroit 
leader, John Key. Although the next scheduled election is a year 
away, the net effect of Labour's inability to close National's 
sizable lead in party polling and Helen Clark's diminished personal 
standing is a growing sense of a difficult-to-reverse hardening of 
the electorate's mood against Labour. 
¶2. (SBU) Key, who only became party leader in November 2006, is 
firmly affixed as New Zealand most popular politician. Key's first 
overtook Clark in preferred Prime Minister polling in May this year, 
after eight years of dominance in the poll by Clark. This change at 
the top of preferred Prime Minister polling is highly symbolic since 
it places the new leader ahead of a long-established one thereby 
removing the aura of invincibility which has surrounded Clark since 
she took office in 1999. It signals that she is now politically 
vulnerable. 
Results of latest polling 
------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) The latest Colmar Brunton-One News poll (July 
8th)underlined the difficulty that the ruling Labour Party is having 
in winning back the large lead built up by the National Party over 
the past couple of months. This poll shows National at 52% and 
Labour at 36%, virtually unchanged since the last survey in early 
May. The most recent 3 News-TNS political poll (July 11th) has 
National at 48% and Labour at 36%, a finding that is unchanged since 
the last poll in early May. In the past Labour took consolation in 
the "3 News-TNS" poll results which consistently placed it ahead of 
National thus bucking the trend. Now, not only is this poll in tune 
with the other major political polls, it forecasts a possible change 
in the political guard. Although the July 23rd release of New 
Zealand's third major political poll, the Herald DigiPoll, showed 
that Labour ticked up slightly in the last month it still faces a 
challenge to overtake National with 48.5% favorable support (Note: 
This poll showed that Labour improved by taking numbers away from 
smaller parties rather than eating into National's lead. End Note) 
¶4. (SBU) Comment: While many voters may admire Clark's steadfast 
political abilities and management skills, they have never really 
warmed to her personally. Key is also admired for exhibiting these 
same professional traits, but unlike Clark he represents other 
qualities that endear him more to the average New Zealander. Key's 
advantage lies in the perception that he does not fit the mold of a 
career politician because he previously had a successful career in 
the private sector. While Clark on the other hand, has been a career 
politician practically her entire professional life.  In the past 
Clark's childlessness has been exploited by political opponents but 
Key is not likely to resort to this tactic overtly.  Key's family 
life (he is married with three children) and an innate understanding 
of what it takes to raise a family are important prerequisites to 
most voters, especially women which accounts for his consistently 
strong polling results. End Comment. 
Keegan