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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5028

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 003232 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/13/07 
 
 
Index: 
 
(1) Projecting LDP's results in Upper House election; Abe likely to 
remain in power with 40-50 seats 
 
(2) Upper House election battle: Unforeseen occurrences observed in 
conservative world 
 
(3) 2007 Upper House election; Candidates reluctant to speak of 
politics-money issue 
 
(4) Koike withholds judgment on realignment subsidy for Nago 
 
(5) Guam gov. positive about hosting Marines 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Projecting LDP's results in Upper House election; Abe likely to 
remain in power with 40-50 seats 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged) 
July 13, 2007 
 
Some are already talking about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe taking 
responsibility for the outcome of the July 29 House of Councillors 
election, for which campaigning got underway just yesterday. Such 
talk comes from strong concern that the ruling bloc might fail to 
win a majority in the Upper House in the wake of a series of 
incidents, such as the pension fiasco and Agriculture Minister 
Norihiko Akagi's shady office expenses. This article examines what 
might happen to Abe and the management of Diet business in the event 
the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Upper House. 
 
Over 45 seats 
 
Although Abe has not mentioned any specific figure that is likely to 
result in his resignation, the dominant view in the Liberal 
Democratic Party is that 44 seats would be the dividing line. The 
reason is because when the party won only 44 seats in the Upper 
House election in 1998, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto 
resigned to take responsibility. Abe is likely to stay on if the LDP 
wins between 45 and 50 seats, even if the ruling bloc loses the 
Upper House majority. 
 
In an effort to regain a majority, the LDP would then immediately 
begin approaching such opposition lawmakers as Hiroyuki Arai, who 
has left the New Party Nippon, and Shinpei Matsushita, who has 
bolted the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) and the 
People's New Party (PNP). Seats held by Arai, Matsushita, and two 
PNP members are not contested in the ongoing race. Although PNP head 
Tamisuke Watanuki ruled out the option of joining the ruling 
coalition, he has left the door open for an off-cabinet 
partnership. 
 
In order for the Abe administration to climb out of this critical 
situation, the ruling bloc needs to take control of the Upper House. 
A plan is in the works for the LDP to form a unified front with the 
New Komeito with the aim of blocking the DPJ from seizing the Upper 
House presidency in order to take the initiative in running Diet 
affairs. 
 
But if the ruling bloc's maneuvering to win a majority fails, the 
 
TOKYO 00003232  002 OF 008 
 
 
Abe administration would become weak. In such a case, the DPJ is 
certain to try to vote down ruling bloc-presented bills or to 
prolong Diet deliberations in the extraordinary session in the 
fall. 
 
The opposition camp might actually be able to kill some bills, 
including one to extend the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, 
scheduled to expire on November 1, derailing the ruling bloc's Diet 
measures. 
 
The view might arise that the ruling bloc should present only those 
bills that are certain to win support of the opposition parties. But 
the largely modified bills would be de facto legislation mapped out 
by the opposition camp. 
 
In this scenario, chances are that sooner or later the Abe cabinet 
would be forced to dissolve itself for a snap general election. 
 
Less than 44 seats 
 
If the LDP won less than 44 seats, ways to prolong the Abe 
administration's life, such as joining hands with the PNP, would be 
closed. Despite that, if a "dump Abe" move did not gain ground in 
the LDP, there might be still some chance for Abe to cling to power. 
Yet the dominant view in the LDP is that Abe must resign if the 
party garners less than 44 seats. 
 
Following Abe's resignation, the LDP would immediately begin work to 
determine his successor. 
 
The LDP would likely to select its new president through a 
presidential election rather than through talks, for such would be 
criticized as a back-room deal. 
 
At present, the front-runner in the race to replace Abe is Foreign 
Minister Taro Aso, who came in second after Abe in the LDP 
presidential race last September. Former Finance Minister Sadakazu 
Tanigaki is likely to announce his candidacy, as well. 
 
Additionally, such persons as former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo 
Fukuda, Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, and even former Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi are being mentioned as prospective 
candidates. 
 
However, even if the prime minister were replaced, the LDP-New 
Komeito coalition would still be minority parties in the Upper 
House. 
 
(2) Upper House election battle: Unforeseen occurrences observed in 
conservative world 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
July 13, 2007 
 
Shimane Prefecture: Aoki desperate to solidify LDP power base 
 
Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP caucus in the Upper House, yesterday 
morning was making a speech in front of the Shimane Prefectural 
Government Office at the top of his voice: "We have never 
experienced an uphill election fight like this. We had never 
expected a situation like this six months ago. We are going into the 
Upper House election, feeling the chill." 
 
TOKYO 00003232  003 OF 008 
 
 
 
During his own Upper House campaign three years ago, Aoki never 
returned to his home constituency, but he defeated a rival 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) candidate by 130,000 
votes.  However, he plans to visit the constituency this time in 
order to back incumbent Shuntaro Kageyama's campaign. Aoki is the 
chairman of the Shimane LDP Prefectural Chapter and is responsible 
for the LDP election headquarters there. Even so, it is unusual for 
Aoki, who is in a position of controlling the ruling camp in the 
election campaign all over the country, to visit the constituency 
twice. 
 
The ruling parties are suffering from a setback following the 
pension fiasco and gaffes and scandals caused by cabinet ministers 
to an extent that cannot be salvaged with organized votes. Aoki is 
determined to do his utmost, noting: "Anything could happen in 
elections. If we lose in Shimane, we will lose nationwide." 
 
Kageyama on June 30 returned to Matsue on the first morning plane as 
soon as the Upper House plenary session ended. He visited 11 places 
and explained the pension issue. His supporters listened to him, 
while nodding, but the waves of negative reaction remained 
unabated. 
 
"We telephoned our supporters, but some replied, 'I will not vote 
for the LDP this time." "We are not receiving many application forms 
for membership in the LDP supporters organization." 
 
The headquarters has received a number of reports on "unforeseen 
occurrences." The results of a survey the LDP carried out were 
reported at a meeting of prefectural assembly members on July 3. The 
report noted: "We have not yet secured support from 40 %  of LDP 
supporters." Senior officials of the election headquarters were 
shocked and said that they had not expected that public opinion was 
so critical of the government. 
 
When Kageyama started his election campaign on the morning of July 
12, Aoki made a public appeal, introducing the government's 
measures: "These are commitments made by the prime minister of the 
country. Please put trust in the words of Prime Minister Abe." 
 
In the meantime, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) was 
having difficulty picking up candidates. It in the end decided to 
recommend Akiko Kamei fielded by the People's New Party (PNP), the 
daughter of PNP Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei. She was the last 
person named but is running for a single-seat constituency backed by 
the DPJ. 
 
Even so, she is increasingly gaining support, backed by a favorable 
trend. The focus of her campaign is criticism of the structural 
reforms under the Koizumi and Abe administrations. 
 
Shimane Prefecture's public works in fiscal 2006 stood at 129.7 
billion yen, just over half the amount of the peak year of fiscal 
¶1998. Local industries, which have supported the LDP, are taking a 
severe beating from the decline in public works. Akiko Kamei said, 
"Even LDP supporters think that politics has gone strange 
recently." 
 
Nagasaki: Pictures taken with prime minister removed 
 
Kiyoshige Okubo of the DPJ on the morning of the 12th stressed 
 
TOKYO 00003232  004 OF 008 
 
 
during a kick-off ceremony of his campaign held at a large shopping 
mall in Nagasaki City: "Cabinet ministers have made too many 
controversial activities and statements. Former Agriculture Minister 
Toshikatsu Matsuoka killed himself. Prime Minister Abe is 
responsible for appointing them." 
 
He criticized the prime minister over the shady ties between 
politics and money, an issue that has been rekindled due to 
Agriculture Minister Akagi's office expenses issue. He then aimed 
his attack at Akio Kyuma, elected from the same constituency, who 
quit over another gaffe. Okubo said: "Many people were victims of 
the atomic bombings. They have been engaged in activities to abolish 
nuclear weapons and achieve world peace. Mr. Kyuma's statement 
trampled on their efforts. I cannot forgive such a statement." 
 
In a speech made in front of fishermen and brokers, who assembled at 
the fish market at Port Fukue on Goto Island, he responded to a 
request by executives of the fishermen's association. He was able to 
do so, because a prefectural assembly member elected from Goto is a 
DPJ member. When Tadatoshi Komine, who is running on the LDP ticket, 
visited the fish market a week ago, there was no such a request made 
by officials of the fishermen's' association. 
 
Kyuma's remark dealt too heavy a blow to Komine. The LDP election 
headquarters and prefectural chapter received dozens of phone calls 
protesting the remark. LDP lawmakers repeatedly offered apologies at 
various meetings. 
 
Senior members of the LDP Nagasaki Chapter during Komine's rally 
told attendants that it has been only six months since Komine joined 
the LDP and that he shares with them the perception that the LDP 
lacks discipline. The strategy was to distance himself from the LDP 
in order to head off the setback. He removed election posters 
carrying a picture of him and Prime Minister Abe from billboards. 
 
Kyuma did not attend a kick-off ceremony for Komine's campaign, 
though it was he who helped Komine get selected as an LDP candidate. 
Komine did not touch on the Kyuma gaffe issue at all, saying: "I 
come from peasant and fisherman stock. I would like to change the 
LDP from a perspective of an average person." 
 
Commenting on Komine's difficult situation, Tsutomu Tomioka, an LDP 
Lower House member elected from proportional representation, noted, 
"He has suffered from a setback, another setback, a storm and then 
torrential rain caused by the defense minister's remark." 
 
(3) 2007 Upper House election; Candidates reluctant to speak of 
politics-money issue 
 
NIKKEI (Page 39) (Excerpts) 
July 13, 2007 
 
The official campaigning for the July 29 House of Councillors 
election started yesterday. 
 
Ibaraki prefectural district 
 
A 64-year-old candidate running in the Ibaraki prefectural district, 
which has been shaken by a political-fund scandal involving 
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Norihiko Akagi's 
political management organization, hardly mentioned the issue of 
"politics and money" in his campaign speech, focusing instead on the 
 
TOKYO 00003232  005 OF 008 
 
 
economy and the pension-record mismanagement by the Social Insurance 
Agency (SIA). He said: "I will let the central government know how 
severe our economic situation is;" and "I will do my best to have 
the SIA dissolved." 
 
Two seats are up for reelection in the Ibaraki constituency, one 
previously held by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the 
other by the largest opposition party Minshuto (Democratic Party of 
Japan). A senior LDP Election Strategy Headquarters member, who is 
perplexed by the money scandal coming to the forefront immediately 
before the start of the campaign for the Upper House election, said: 
"Like the Agriculture Minister, I, too, have called for reform of 
agricultural policy. However, I am reluctant to mention the name of 
the farm minister." Reportedly Akagi has no plan to deliver a speech 
on behalf of the LDP candidate. 
 
Opposition candidates, though, made severe comments (on the 
money-politics issue). 
The 57-year-old Minshuto first-time candidate stated, "All political 
organizations should disclose all receipts. The 55-year-old Japanese 
Communist Party (JCP) candidate stressed: "The (agricultural 
minister) should step down from his post if he cannot disclose the 
facts." 
 
Most voters nodded in assent to the above calls, but one person 
said, "I want to cast my vote in consideration of policies affecting 
my livelihood." A 78-year-old self-employed man, a resident of Mito 
City, said: "I want someone to change the present political 
situation of neglecting rural areas. Many shutters have been closed 
for good on our shopping streets." 
 
Kumamoto 
 
In Kumamoto Prefecture, the Upper House election and a by-election 
to fill a Lower House seat that fell vacant after former Agriculture 
Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka committed suicide one month ago will be 
conducted the same day. Candidates running in the Kumamoto electoral 
district in the Upper House race also focused on the money-politics 
issue in their campaign speeches. 
 
The first-time Minshuto candidate, 56, who is running in the 
conservative district, in which one seat is up for election, took a 
stance of pursuing Akagi, saying: "The agricultural minister's 
problem is the same as (Matsuoka's)." A 53-year-old incumbent 
lawmaker, however, placed priority on local issues, noting, "I will 
revitalize agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries and small 
businesses." 
 
The LDP gave up on filing a candidate in the Lower House by-election 
for the Kumamoto No. 3 district. A 56-year-old former Lower House 
member, who is expected to run in the race and who fought against 
Matsuoka in the two past elections, advocated carrying out clean 
politics. A Kumamoto prefectural assembly member, who is backed by 
Matsuoka's support group, stressed, "I want to remove the fetters on 
me. But I wonder whether I would then be able to win the votes that 
Matsuoka had sewed up." 
 
Iwate 
 
Iwate Prefecture is the constituency where Minshuto President Ichiro 
Ozawa hails from. There was a controversy over Ozawa's political 
management organization's possession of huge amount of properties. 
 
TOKYO 00003232  006 OF 008 
 
 
In the Iwate prefectural district, no candidates talked about this 
problem. A supporter for the 36-year-old LDP first-comer candidate 
said, "Criticizing each other is meaningless." 
 
Candidates advocated that they would make efforts to revitalize 
local industries and resolve the shortage of medical doctors. They 
referred little to a revision of the Political Funds Control Law, as 
well as the politics and money issue. The 53-year-old Minshuto 
candidate, an incumbent Upper House member, only said, "I want to 
prevent the ruling coalition from running amok." 
 
(4) Koike withholds judgment on realignment subsidy for Nago 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
July 12, 2007 
 
TOKYO-Defense Minister Yuriko Koike responded to a press interview 
at her ministry yesterday afternoon for pool coverage including the 
Ryukyu Shimpo. In the interview, there was a question asked if she 
thought the city of Nago was being considered at this point for the 
government's plan to subsidize base-hosting municipalities 
cooperating in the process of realigning US forces in Japan under 
the US Forces Realignment Promotion Special Measures Law. Koike 
withheld her judgment, saying, "I'd like to reserve judgment on 
whether to so consider." With this, she indicated that she would 
listen to Nago's standpoint at the stage of giving consideration to 
that possibility. 
 
On the question of whether the government would consider Nago for a 
realignment subsidy, Koike's predecessor, Fumio Kyuma, had indicated 
that Nago would be eligible for the initial outlay of 10 %  in 
subsidization because the city has accepted the planned relocation 
of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station. Koike, in her remarks 
this time, backpedaled on Kyuma's remarks. 
 
Asked about realignment subsidization, Koike said the government 
would factor in whether the realignment would proceed in a steady 
way. Meanwhile, Koike also said the government would consider how to 
use the special measures law. She added that she would make a 
judgment "while listening to Nago's views." 
 
In the meantime, Nago City and Okinawa Prefecture have asked the 
government to revise its Futenma relocation plan, calling for the 
government to install an alternative facility in waters off the 
coast of Nago City (instead of laying down a V-shaped pair of 
airstrips in a coastal area of Camp Schwab in the city). Koike, 
however, reiterated her negative view about altering the plan, 
saying: "The plan to build airstrips in a V-shape is based on an 
overall decision that was made from various perspectives, such as 
how to preserve the environment, including coral and seaweed beds, 
and how effectively to use the new airfield. This is an extremely 
important issue-that is not only from the aspect of carrying out 
base relocation but also in the sense of defending our country and 
ensuring security in the region. We should resolve this issue as 
early as possible." 
 
Koike also suggested the need for the government and Okinawa's 
prefectural and municipal governments to hold a meeting at the 
earliest possible time to discuss Futenma relocation. In the 
meantime, the government will have to inform the Okinawa prefectural 
government in written form of how to conduct an environmental impact 
assessment of the relocation site. "We'd like to take procedures at 
 
TOKYO 00003232  007 OF 008 
 
 
an early date," Koike said. For that purpose, Koike added that the 
government wants to ask for local understanding. 
 
Commentary: Koike follows vice minister's remarks 
 
Defense Minister Yuriko Koike's press remarks on US military 
realignment subsidies denote that she has backed down from her 
predecessor's view. Moreover, the new defense minister has also 
changed her own attitude she has shown over a package of economic 
incentives for Okinawa Prefecture's northern districts. Her remarks 
reflect a strong imprint of the influence of Administrative Vice 
Defense Minister Takemasa Moriya, who is repulsed by Nago City's 
call for the government to revise the government's Futenma 
alternative facility plan and who is negative about subsidizing Nago 
City. 
 
In late May 2006, when Koike was a minister of state for Okinawa, 
the government decided in a cabinet meeting to repeal its cabinet 
decision of 1999 that incorporated a package of economic promotion 
measures for Okinawa Prefecture's northern localities. Koike then 
underscored her consideration for local communities, saying, 
"Okinawa Prefecture and Nago City have yet to agree." 
 
However, Koike, now defense minister, inclined at once to the 
Defense Ministry in what she said. In yesterday's interview, Koike 
was careful about her words, saying," We need to listen to Nago City 
for its needs as well." There was another question from a reporter. 
"This is important, so I want to confirm what to say." With this, 
Koike read an answer paper prepared by her ministry's administrative 
officials. 
 
Koike said she would make a judgment "while listening to Nago City's 
opinion." So saying, Koike stressed her future course of action. 
However, she only followed what Moriya said in May. The vice 
minister said the government "will now work on making a decision." 
 
Koike may come out with her own views in the future as she gets used 
to her job as defense minister. However, her ministry's officials 
want to push ahead with Futenma relocation based on the government's 
plan. After the upcoming House of Councillors election, they will 
presumably gear up for Futenma relocation. Nago City and Okinawa 
Prefecture will likely be in an even more difficult position. 
 
(5) Guam gov. positive about hosting Marines 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) 
July 12, 2007 
 
Guam, July 11-A delegation of mayors from 11 municipalities in the 
middle part of Okinawa Prefecture, led by Okinawa Mayor Mitsuko 
Tomon, is now visiting Guam to look into the possible impact of 
moving US Marine Corps from Okinawa to Guam in the process of 
realigning US forces in Japan. The delegation today called on Guam 
Gov. Felix Camacho. In addition, the group also visited the US 
Navy's Apra base and the Guam Chamber of Commerce. "We will welcome 
the Marines," the governor said, "and we want to invite many more US 
troops." The governor also revealed that he would go to Washington 
on Aug. 2 to talk with US government officials about issues relating 
to the US military's realignment. 
 
Gov. Camacho explained that the US military realigned its presence 
on Guam and closed down some of its bases on the island in 1996. As 
 
TOKYO 00003232  008 OF 008 
 
 
a result, the island's economy stagnated, the governor said. The US 
Marine Corps is now planning to move Okinawa-based troops and 
families totaling 17,000. "It will have an economic impact we've 
never experienced," the governor said. He also said, "We'd like to 
work together with the local business community while establishing a 
friendship with the military." With this, he indicated that Guam 
would invite US troops to boost its economy. 
 
In addition, Gov. Camacho also said he would like to ask the 
Pentagon for ways and means, noting the indispensability of 
infrastructure construction for Guam to host the Marines. The 
governor also revealed that he has been invited by Okinawa Gov. 
Hirokazu Nakaima to visit Okinawa. "I will visit Okinawa with the 
lieutenant governor, and I'd like to share what the people of 
Okinawa are feeling," he said. 
 
At the Apra base, the delegation met with Capt. Robert Lee, acting 
director of the Joint Guam Program Office-Forward. In the meeting 
there, Capt. Lee explained: 1) there will be a sharp increase in the 
number of US troops and family dependents from 14,200 at present to 
40,000 after realignment; and 2) the US military will create an 
environmental impact report by 2010 and complete base construction 
by 2014. Capt. Lee also said the Marines would relocate fixed-wing 
aircraft and helicopters to Andersen Air Base "as soon as 
possible." 
 
At the Guam Chamber of Commerce, the delegation met with GCC 
President Eloise Baza and other executives. According to GCC 
President Baza, the GCC found from its poll of local residents in 
April this year that 71 %  were in favor of accepting Marine 
relocation to Guam. "There are growing expectations for economic 
ripple effects," she said. With this, the local business leader 
welcomed Marine relocation to Guam. 
 
SCHIEFFER