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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 003192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/12/07-2 
 
 
Index: 
 
(3) Editorial: Abe politics to be judged by voters in Upper House 
election 
 
(4) Editorial: Upper House election occasion to judge 10-month-old 
Abe administration 
 
(5) Advice to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe -- Fight with confidence 
 
(6) Survey: Sharp increase in "netizens" between 40 and 50 years of 
age, Overall usage as compared to 5 years ago increased 13 points to 
59 % 
 
(7) Kasumigaseki Confidential column: Meandering US-Japan relations 
 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(3) Editorial: Abe politics to be judged by voters in Upper House 
election 
 
ASAHI (Page 3) (Full) 
July 12, 2007 
 
The official campaign for the July 29 House of Councillors election 
kicks off today. It is the first time for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 
who assumed office last September, to fight a major national 
election. 
 
When Abe won big in the presidential race of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) about nine months ago, he would not have expected that 
he would receive his first public judgment under a severe adverse 
wind. 
 
Abe has to go to the election campaign while dealing with the 
pension-record mess, money scandals involving cabinet ministers, and 
insensitive comments by cabinet members. 
 
Abe was supposed to ask for a vote of confidence through the Upper 
House election by playing up his own policy imprint, which differs 
from that of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. To that end, 
he steamrollered many bills into law, including a national 
referendum bill. 
 
He has set up several advisory panels on educational reform and the 
interpretation of the right to collective self-defense, urging 
panels to come up with recommendations. 
 
Appearing on TV, Abe said, "I want the public to assess the results 
I have produced over the last nine months." He must be unwilling to 
fight in the election under the present situation. 
 
Of course, the pension fiasco is a major issue in the upcoming 
election. It is necessary to debate how to respond to public 
distrust and anger and how to create a system and organization 
people can rely on. 
 
At the same time, the main purpose of the upcoming election is that 
voters will check what the Abe administration has done or has not 
done over the last nine months. People should not forget this. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003192  002 OF 007 
 
 
For Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) the meaning of this Upper 
House election is extremely significant. It will be a great chance 
for the party to rebound from its humiliating defeat in the House of 
Representatives election in 2005. 
 
Should the opposition camp secure a majority in the Upper House, it 
will be able to reject bills passed by the government and ruling 
coalition, as well as to decide methods for conducting 
deliberations. Although the ruling camp holds a majority in the 
Lower House, it won't be able to manage politics under its 
leadership. 
 
Even if the ruling coalition loses its majority in the Upper House, 
the reins of government will not be transferred from the LDP to 
Minshuto. However, in case the opposition drives Abe to dissolve the 
Lower House for a general election, such will become a major 
foothold for a political change. A political realignment might then 
occur. 
 
Ozawa said that he would resign as a politician if the opposition 
camp fails to gain control in the Upper House. This is because he 
might have assumed that the upcoming election will be a decisive 
battle for a two-party system, which he has long sought. The three 
matters, including the politics-money issue rekindled by a political 
fund scandal involving Agriculture Minister Norihiko Akagi, are 
important campaign issues. Let us pay attention to debate on these 
matters among political parties, including the New Komeito, Japanese 
Communist Party, and Social Democratic Party. Let's remember that we 
are required to choose -- Abe's policy of emerging from the postwar 
regime or Ozawa-led Minshuto's two-party system -- for the future 
course of Japan's politics. We should closely watch the 18-day 
campaign. 
 
(4) Editorial: Upper House election occasion to judge 10-month-old 
Abe administration 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 12, 2007 
 
The 21st regular election of the House of Councillors is to be 
officially announced on July 12. The ruling and opposition parties 
will kick off fierce election campaigns to win a majority in the 
Upper House with the pension flap, regional revitalization, 
agriculture, and the shady ties between politics and money as 
campaign issues. The upcoming election is a very important national 
election through which voters will pass judgment on the Shinzo Abe 
cabinet, which was inaugurated last September. There is the 
possibility of a major change occurring to Japanese politics, 
depending on the outcome of the election. 
 
We want to see in-depth discussion take place on pension system 
 
Some 121 seats (73 for electoral districts and 48 for proportional 
representation), half the number of the Upper House seats, are up 
for election. In order for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
and New Komeito to maintain a majority, they need to secure at least 
64 seats. The major focus of the election is whether the opposition, 
including the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), can force 
the ruling camp into the minority. 
 
Public approval ratings for the Abe cabinet have plummeted since the 
revelations of the mishandling of pension premium payment 
 
TOKYO 00003192  003 OF 007 
 
 
record-keeping. The LDP is forced to fight a difficult battle due to 
a series of controversial remarks and office expenses issues caused 
by cabinet ministers. Prime Minister Abe is determined to make a 
public appeal of his policy of reconstructing the pension system and 
revitalizing education and regional districts. 
 
Opposition parties are criticizing the LDP-New Komeito 
administration for having widened income disparities and made people 
less secure. The DPJ has made the following three proposals the 
pillars of its election pledges with the aim of forcing the ruling 
camp into the minority and realizing a change of administration in 
the next Lower House election: (1) issuing pension books to all 
contributors; (2) setting up a child allowance system, under which 
26,000 yen is paid for each child; and (3) introducing a farm 
household income guarantee system. 
 
Prior to the official announcement of the Upper House election, a 
party head debate was held at the Japan National Press Club on July 
¶11. The focus of the discussion was the pension issue as expected. 
Regarding the pension fiasco, the prime minister has come up with 
extensive measures also including arguments made by the DPJ and the 
Japanese Communist Party. At the debate yesterday, Abe said that he 
had adopted every possible measure. Points at issue are gradually 
shifting from measures to deal with unidentified pension premium 
payment records to discussions on the nature of the pension system. 
 
DPJ head Ozawa has proposed introducing a minimum pension guarantee 
system financed by the current consumption tax, targeting those in 
the relatively low income bracket. The prime minister and New 
Komeito head Akihiro Ota raised doubts about the feasibility of 
Ozawa's proposal, noting that the funding is unclear and that the 
plan does not include the amount of a minimum pension guarantee and 
income limitation. They asked how the DPJ intends to determine the 
income of the self-employed. 
 
The ruling camp noted that the ratio of state contribution to the 
basic pension should be raised to 50 %  in fiscal 2009, but they 
have not yet mentioned how to secure 2.5 trillion yen to finance the 
plan. Prime Minister Abe steered clear of categorically saying 
anything about the consumption tax, simply noting, "I would like to 
bring a situation in which a consumption hike can be thwarted by 
such means as spending cuts and economic growth." 
 
Concerning the present system of requiring 25 years of contributions 
in order to be eligible to receive benefits, Ota proposed looking 
into the possibility shortening the contribution period. We welcome 
the ruing and opposition camps pursuing in-depth discussions of the 
pension system in order to dissolve anxieties felt by the public. 
 
If they deepen discussions on the pension system and financial 
resources, they would find it necessary to discus ways to 
reconstruct Japan's public finances. The DPJ estimated that expenses 
needed to implement measures included in its manifesto would be 15.3 
trillion yen and that the amount should be secured by streamlining 
subsidies and cutting administrative expenses. The prime minister 
also noted that in order to achieve a primary balance by fiscal 
2011, it would be necessary to cut expenditures by 12-14 trillion 
yen. 
 
Political parties should compete over drastic administrative and 
fiscal reforms 
 
 
TOKYO 00003192  004 OF 007 
 
 
Both the LDP and the DPJ stressed they would cut expenditures in a 
far-reaching manner, but they dodged discussion of the consumption 
tax. Their manifestoes do not include any specific measures or 
process to cut expenditures. Unless they come up with persuasive 
visions for administrative and fiscal reform, they will not be able 
to gain understanding from voters. 
 
A change of administration is not at stake in an Upper House 
election. It is an election to choose half the number of seats in 
the second chamber of the Diet. An Upper House election could mean 
an interim evaluation of the administration in power. For the Abe 
administration, which has yet to undergo voters' judgment in a Lower 
House election, the upcoming Upper House election will be the first 
election through which it will undergo a real judgment. Its 
political meaning is immense. If the ruling camp loses a majority, 
it will have a serious impact on the management of the 
administration and its policy direction. 
 
A defeat in the Upper House election of the ruling parties will not 
directly lead to the question of whether or not the prime minister 
should resign. There is no Diet vote for prime minister after an 
Upper House election. However, there have been cases in which prime 
ministers stepped down following defeats in Upper House elections. 
It is naturally desirable that as many voters, with whom sovereign 
power resides, as possible take part in balloting for the Upper 
House election. 
 
(5) Advice to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe -- Fight with confidence 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
July 12, 2007 
 
By Yoshiko Sakurai 
 
It is clear from the international situation surrounding Japan that 
the world is in need of value-oriented diplomacy, as is advocated by 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. At the same time, the loss of basic 
values by a country's top leader could throw the country into 
turmoil and harm its national interests. Japan's vicinity is filled 
with such examples. 
 
South Korea is clearly showing dangerous signs. The Grand National 
Party (GNP), a conservative-leaning opposition party in South Korea 
that has fought with the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun 
administrations, has now turned around its policy. On July 4, the 
GNP in an apparent reversal of its previous stance released what it 
called the Vision for Peace on the Korean Peninsula, pledging to 
extend substantial aid to North Korea's Kim Jong Il regime without 
forcing it to abandon its nuclear programs. The GNP's policy has 
leaned toward the North almost to the point of being identical to 
that of the Roh administration. 
 
The unnecessary policy change by the highly popular GNP is mainly 
ascribable to the United States' major concessions to North Korea 
during the six-party talks in February. 
 
More specifically, the conservative South Korean party's move 
resulted from Secretary of State Rice and other leaders' pointless 
shift to a pragmatic policy course to join hands with Kim Jong Il. 
The GNP feared that South Korea might be left behind. 
 
Tilts toward North Korea by Washington and Seoul will not help 
 
TOKYO 00003192  005 OF 007 
 
 
resolve the North Korean missile standoff or block China's latent 
control. Their compromises come from a lack of solid national 
visions and beliefs. 
 
Their concessions will end up increasing the influence of North 
Korea and China. Abe diplomacy must stand firm, realizing that 
Japan's role is to play a central role in spreading such values as 
democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law in Asia in 
place of the shaky United States. 
 
China's National University of Defense has released what is called 
the national defense program 2010. In the report, Japan and the 
United States are specified as China's major strategic targets that 
might intervene in Taiwan affairs and a battle in the Taiwan Strait. 
What is more interesting is the following passage on a battle in the 
Taiwan Strait: "Deployment of ground-based fighters will be 
basically sufficient to achieve China's objective in dealing with 
Japan and the United States." 
 
Where does that confidence come from? China apparently thinks that 
armed with missiles and nuclear warheads that have all of Japan, 
including Tokyo and Osaka, in range, it can intimidate Japan and 
constrain it. China must think the same way toward the United 
States. China now possesses missiles and nuclear warheads capable of 
reaching the continental United States and the ability to attack 
satellites to destroy communications systems to temporarily freeze 
the United States' military response. China might someday decide to 
use those capabilities, thinking that it will be able to contain the 
United State's move at the same time. 
 
What is the United States' view of a China that has those political 
and military ambitions? The latest issue of Foreign Affairs carries 
an essay by Barack Obama, a candidate for the Democratic 
presidential nomination, which expresses his determination to forge 
a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral 
agreements. "A framework that goes beyond bilateral agreements" can 
be taken to mean a structure that goes beyond the Japan-US alliance. 
Obama's essay also read: "I will also encourage China to play a 
responsible role as a growing power -- to help lead in addressing 
the common problems of the twenty-first century." 
 
Needless to say, this is Obama's personal position. At the same 
time, many American people put high priority on Japan, as seen in 
the Wall Street Journal July 9 editorial that gave a positive 
assessment to Prime Minister Abe's value-oriented diplomacy. 
 
The prime minister must work harder to deepen mutual understanding 
with those people attaching importance to Japan. What they are 
watching is his visions and his resolve to realize them. Recent 
developments from the establishment of the Defense Ministry to the 
enactment of national referendum legislation as the first step to 
constitutional revision to the reforms of the civil servant system 
and the Basic Education Law were all designed to bring visions to 
Japan. Level-headed individuals welcome such changes in Japan as a 
major international player. 
 
Prime Minister Abe has also settled an old lawsuit filed by Japanese 
orphans left behind in China in the closing days of WWII. 
Additionally, he is endeavoring to reach a settlement with people 
suffering from hepatitis resulting from contaminated blood products. 
Even the Asahi Shimbun highly evaluated those achievements 
reflecting strong national sentiments. 
 
TOKYO 00003192  006 OF 007 
 
 
 
Prime Minister Abe has steadily resolved long-standing issues that 
have been left unattended by successive administrations due to a 
lack of national visions and consideration to the general public. 
His achievements deserve high marks. 
 
To begin with, a House of Councillors election must serve as an 
opportunity to discuss basic polities and how politics should deal 
with the pubic. Although attention is focused only on the pension 
issue in this year's election, Prime Minister Abe should fight with 
confidence. 
 
(6) Survey: Sharp increase in "netizens" between 40 and 50 years of 
age, Overall usage as compared to 5 years ago increased 13 points to 
59 % 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) 
July 12, 2007 
 
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications yesterday 
announced the results of their survey on household economy which 
measured internet use during a one year period starting in October 
¶2005. Compared to the results of a similar survey conducted 5 years 
ago, the amount of people who used the internet during a one year 
period increased by 15,000,000, bringing total number of internet 
users to 67,500,000. A drastic jump in the number of internet users 
in their 40s and 50s was a leading factor in the overall increase. 
 
In their analysis of the results, the ministry described the 
increase as a result of "the diffusion of the internet into daily 
life via cell phones, PHS and email." 
 
About 80,000 households nationwide were selected at random for this 
survey, and using responses received from around 180,000 people over 
the age of 10 last October, the ministry came out with these 
estimated numbers. Internet usage related to work or academics was 
excluded from the results. 
 
At 59.4 % , internet usage was up 13 points compared to the previous 
survey (which included work and academic-related internet use). 
Usage increased among all age groups, but increases were especially 
dramatic among women ages 40-44, up 31.2 points to 80.6 % , and 
women ages 45-49, up 34.4 points to 71.5 % . 
 
Use centered on "email" and "information and/or news gathering," and 
39.2 %  of women ages 40-44 said they used email "more than 200 days 
a year (more than four times a week)." 
 
(7) Kasumigaseki Confidential column: Meandering US-Japan relations 
 
BUNGEI SHUNJU (Page 234) (Excerpt) 
August, 2007 
 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his cabinet have been going in circles 
regarding the pension problem. This meandering has not stopped at 
domestic affairs but has also begun to affect foreign diplomacy, 
namely the safety net of US-Japan relations. 
 
One cause is North Korea. Last July, just before the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, North Korea launched 
ballistic missiles, and just after the new administration was 
inaugurated, they conducted a nuclear test. PM Abe's signature 
 
TOKYO 00003192  007 OF 007 
 
 
policies towards the DPRK - political pressure and a hard-line 
stance - matched perfectly with the attitude of the Bush 
administration and were a main reason behind the high support rate 
that the Abe cabinet enjoyed. 
 
One year later, the US switched to a dialogue-oriented, flexible 
stance towards the DPRK, and Assistant Secretary of State 
Christopher Hill made a surprise visit to North Korea. Furthermore, 
the GOJ was told about the planned visit while Hill was visiting 
Japan, only right before it was to happen. Asian and Oceanian 
Affairs Bureau Director General Kenichiro Sasae was asked to keep 
the visit a secret until Hill departed and had no control over the 
situation. Hearing reports from Sasae, Vice-Minister for Foreign 
Affairs Shotaro Yachi could not hide his skepticism, asking, "Is 
there any point in going to North Korea?" 
 
Foreign Minister Taro Aso made public the discomfort of Foreign 
Ministry leaders in a press conference by stating, "There is nothing 
more foolish than rushing over in a panic and showing weakness." 
Coming from Aso, the strongest "post-Abe" candidate, these words 
gave a shock to those in the US who deal with US-Japan relations. 
 
Another cause behind the wavering of US-Japan relations is the 
"comfort women" issue and the passage of a resolution by the US 
House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs calling on the 
GOJ to apologize. Through the efforts of Japanese Ambassador to the 
US Ryozo Kato and others, PM Abe personally met with committee 
members during his US visit in April to offer explanations regarding 
the issue, and as a result, Director-General of the North American 
Affairs Bureau Shinichi Nishimiya and others thought that the issue 
had been put aside. 
 
However, the placement of an ad in the Washington Post by Abe's 
political ally Diet member Takeo Hiranuma, former Japanese 
Ambassador to Thailand Hisahiko Okazaki, and others completely 
changed the situation. As a result of the ad, Committee Chairman Tom 
Lantos himself decided to support the resolution. 
 
PM Abe's core group of confidantes, including Foreign Policy Bureau 
Policy Coordination Division Director Nobukatsu Kanehara and 
Executive Assistant Hajime Hayashi, have pushed for Abe's brand of 
diplomacy which brandishes the "shared values" of the US and Japan. 
As a result, Abe and those around him have exposed their weaknesses 
in a most miserable manner. 
 
SCHIEFFER