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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 003100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/06/07-2 
 
 
Index: 
 
(3) Simulation of Upper House election: If slightly over 40 LDP 
seats, Abe will pressed to resign 
 
(4) Editorial: Election issues, "Abe's politics" will be questioned 
 
(5) Defense white paper expresses "concern" about the modernization 
of China's military, stresses building missile defense to meet North 
Korean threat 
 
(6) Japan now on very thin ice, starts sinking (Part 4): "I want to 
erase wrong image of Japan" 
 
(Corrected copy) Koike assumes one key post after another owing to 
"keen sense of (political) smell," arousing jealousy of lawmakers 
eager to join cabinet 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(3) Simulation of Upper House election: If slightly over 40 LDP 
seats, Abe will pressed to resign 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Abridged) 
July 6, 2007 
 
The official campaign for the House of Councillors election -- this 
year's largest political battle -- will kick off on July 12 for 
voting on July 29. The major focus of attention is whether or not 
the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which has 
been under fire due to the pension fiasco and former Defense 
Minister Fumio Kyuma's A-bomb remarks, can win a majority. The 
dominant view is that if the ruling coalition suffered a serious 
setback -- meaning less than 57 seats for the entire ruling camp, 
including the Liberal Democratic Party obtaining slightly over 40 
seats -- that would spell an end to the Abe administration. 
Meanwhile, major opposition Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) 
President Ichiro Ozawa declared that he would resign from his 
position if the opposition parties failed to win a combined 
majority. This newspaper has simulated the outcome of the upcoming 
election. 
 
Ruling camp wins a majority 
 
Of the 242 Upper House seats, 121 seats -- 73 electoral district 
seats and 48 proportional representation seats -- will be up for 
election. Fifty-eight seats held by the ruling coalition will be up 
for grabs. In order for the ruling coalition to obtain a majority 
(122 seats), it needs to win 64 seats. 
 
In the event the New Komeito wins its 13 seats up for election, the 
LDP would need 51 seats. Many observers are pessimistic about the 
ruling bloc keeping a majority due to the pension fiasco, Kyuma's 
resignation, and other unfortunate events. If the ruling coalition 
succeeded in maintaining the majority, that would certain to give 
stability to the Abe administration. 
 
At the same time, it would force Ozawa to resign as Minshuto 
president. Ozawa in fact took this view in yesterday's interview: 
"(The opposition parties) must jointly obtain a majority in order to 
change political trends. The upcoming election will be the last 
chance. If that can't be achieved, it's meaningless for me to remain 
 
TOKYO 00003100  002 OF 009 
 
 
as Minshuto head." 
 
Ozawa referred to his post-election responsibility for the first 
time. "Mr. Ozawa clarified his responsibility in a bid to pave the 
way for the prime minister's resignation following a defeat of the 
ruling camp," a senior Minshuto lawmaker explained. 
 
Ruling camp fails to win a majority 
 
The ruling coalition might fail to win a majority, winning only 
58-63 seats as a whole with the LDP getting 45-50 seats. Even in 
such a case, the prime minister would not be pressed to leave office 
to take responsibility, although the opposition bloc is certain to 
gain an upper hand. 
 
In the previous 2004 Upper House race, the LDP garnered 49 seats 
under the leadership of Prime Minister Koizumi and Secretary General 
Abe. The LDP's poor performance only resulted in Abe's demotion to 
the post of acting secretary general with no changes to the fate of 
the Koizumi administration. Even a former cabinet minister keeping 
his distance from the prime minister took this view: "Mr. Abe 
doesn't have to worry about leaving office for the time being." 
 
But in this scenario, an unstable Abe administration is certain to 
prompt the ruling bloc to lure opposition parties into joining 
forces with the ruling parties. 
 
The People's New Party head Tamisuke Watanuki on July 4 left the 
door open for non-cabinet partnership, although he ruled out the 
option of forming a coalition with the LDP. Many ruling party 
members are eager to win PNP and Minshuto lawmakers over to their 
side with a view to winning a majority. Minshuto's unity is not rock 
solid, as seen in former postal minister Hideo Watanabe's vote for 
the ruling camp-presented national referendum legislation. 
 
In this scenario, Ozawa would not be able to achieve his goal of 
toppling the Koizumi administration and might lose his momentum as a 
result. 
 
Ruling camp gets less than 57 seats 
 
In the event the LDP wins 44 seats or less, pushing down the ruling 
bloc's total to less than 57 seats, chances are that Prime Minister 
Abe will have to resign. Although former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori 
and LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa have fended off Abe's 
possible resignation over the outcome of the Upper House election, 
some have begun pointing to the 1998 Upper House election in which 
the LDP won 44 seats and then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto 
resigned to take responsibility. "The Abe cabinet was launched 
mainly to win the Upper House election. What will happen to it if 
the ruling bloc suffered a set back is quite clear," said a senior 
member of the Machimura faction, to which Abe used to belong. 
 
Such persons as Foreign Minister Taro Aso, former Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, 
 
SIPDIS 
and even former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi are being mentioned 
as possible successors to Abe, but they all lack decisive factors. 
Abe might refuse to resign, saying that the election was not a race 
to determine who should take the reins of government. With less than 
57 seats, the LDP-New Komeito coalition would find it difficult to 
run Diet business and the prime minister would be pressed for an 
early dissolution of the Lower House. Some are already whispering 
 
TOKYO 00003100  003 OF 009 
 
 
another round of political realignment after the Upper House race. 
Minshuto head Ozawa predicted on June 24 that political realignment 
would follow the opposition camp's overwhelming victory in the 
upcoming race. 
 
An unclear majority line 
 
Uncertainties have emerged for the majority line of the ruling bloc. 
New Party Nippon Upper House member Hiroyuki Arai announced 
yesterday that he would leave the party. Minshuto Upper House member 
Shinpei Matsushita also filed a letter of withdrawal with the 
party. 
 
If Arai and Matsushita were to join the ruling camp, the number of 
seats necessary for the ruling parties to keep the majority would be 
lowered from 64 to 62. 
 
(4) Editorial: Election issues, "Abe's politics" will be questioned 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 6, 2007 
 
The latest session of the Diet came to a close yesterday, and each 
party is now gearing up for the campaign battle leading to the Upper 
House election (the official announcement of the campaign season is 
on the 12th, and the election is on the 29th).  The Abe cabinet's 
plunging support rate, which began its precipitous drop after the 
pension fiasco, has shown no sign of improvement.  On the 3rd, 
former Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma resigned in order to take 
responsibility for his comments regarding the dropping of the atomic 
bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Amidst this chaos, the election is 
taking place. 
 
How should we view the upcoming election?  In short, this election 
asks voters to decide whether or not they want the Abe 
administration to remain in office - in other words, we think that 
Abe's politics itself will be put to the question in this election. 
 
Perhaps sensing that a tough battle is inescapable, senior 
executives of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have repeatedly 
stated that "the Upper House election is not an election to choose 
an administration" and thus "it will not be linked to Prime Minister 
Shinzo Abe's remaining in or leaving office."  However, this is the 
first time that Prime Minister Abe is facing the judgment of the 
nation's voters in a national election.  If one is going to say that 
"choosing an administration is done during the Lower House 
election," the Lower House should have been dissolved last fall, 
right after Abe's inauguration, and a general election should have 
been held to seek the voters' affirmation.  Prime Minister Abe said 
at a press conference yesterday, "I cannot discuss (the election) 
with the assumption that we will lose," but if his party loses this 
first evaluative election, the Abe cabinet should assume that they 
could not obtain the public's trust. 
 
At the press conference, the prime minister also announced that he 
would move up the deadline for verifying social insurance payment 
records, and it seems that pensions will be the main issue of the 
election.  Yet the most important thing that the prime minister must 
address is his delayed response after members of the Democratic 
Party of Japan (Minshuto) notified him of the pension problem. 
 
The prime minister has moved forward with his project to "emerge 
 
TOKYO 00003100  004 OF 009 
 
 
from the postwar regime."  Following last year's revision to the 
Fundamental Law of Education, at the beginning of this year the 
prime minister announced that constitutional revision would be the 
main platform of the Upper House election and established a bill to 
set procedures for a national referendum on the constitution.  The 
LDP has never touched any of these issues in the past.  There are 
probably people who highly value these accomplishments.  On the 
other hand, there are probably those who feel that there is a huge 
gap between what the people currently want and how the prime 
minister thinks.  This is what it means to question Abe's politics. 
 
Of course, pensions are not the only important election issue.  This 
is an election where candidates who may propose constitutional 
revisions in a few years could be chosen.  Even if Prime Minister 
Abe resigns, constitutional revision will be a big theme in future 
politics.  We must begin a proper discussion now. 
 
There is more.  How should we resolve the problem of growing social 
disparities, a problem said to be the shadow of Koizumi's politics? 
How do we move forward with structural reforms?  And what about 
US-Japan relations, Asian diplomacy, national security, 
decentralization of power from central to local governments...?  An 
election where each party debates different policy issues and where 
voters vote after closely observing this debate - that is the type 
of election we want to have. 
 
Minshuto President Ichiro Ozawa says that he wants this election to 
be a stepping stone to a change in administration.  If he and his 
party are truly aiming for an "Ozawa/Minshuto administration" after 
the next Lower House election, then rather than simply criticizing 
the LDP's handling of the pension fiasco, they must offer specific 
plans to build the country.  The LDP criticizes Minshuto's campaign 
pledges as being financially irresponsible and lacking viability. 
Minshuto must respond to these critiques. 
 
(5) Defense white paper expresses "concern" about the modernization 
of China's military, stresses building missile defense to meet North 
Korean threat 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full) 
Eve., July 6, 2007 
 
The government this morning at a Cabinet meeting approved the 2007 
edition of the Defense of Japan (Defense white paper). The white 
paper expressed concern about China's military modernization and 
stated for the first time in connection with the military balance 
with Taiwan, "Changes are occurring that are giving the advantage to 
the Chinese side." In addition, the paper criticized North Korea's 
launching of ballistic missiles and nuclear testing last years, 
calling them "a serious threat to peace and stability of the 
international community." It stressed the need to quickly build a 
missile-defense system, including setting up an intelligence-sharing 
system between Japan and the United States. 
 
Regarding China's military modernization, the white paper pointed 
out: "Since the immediate target is the Taiwan issue, there is 
heightened concern that has brought forth the argument, for example, 
that perhaps they have surpassed what is needed to respond to the 
Taiwan issue." The wording has gone farther than what was in the 
white paper in 2006 that went: "The prudent judgment might be made 
that China is exceeding the scope needed for its own defense, so we 
need to carefully watch such from now." 
 
TOKYO 00003100  005 OF 009 
 
 
 
Specifically, the paper, referring to China's naval power, stated, 
"It is aiming to build the capability of carrying out tactical 
operations in waters even farther away than before." On its air 
power, too, the paper stated: "It is aiming to build a capability to 
command the air, as well as an air to ground and air to ship attack 
capability that is even more forward positioned." 
 
On North Korea, in the 2006 white paper, because of the time factor, 
the missile issue was not mentioned, but in the 2007 edition, there 
is analysis of the ballistic-missile launches.  It noted that out of 
the seven missile launches, one was Taepodong-2 (range of 6,000 
kilometers) that failed. The paper took the view that "it is 
conceivable that they are working on an even longer-range ballistic 
missile, including the possibility of it being a derivative type." 
 
There was little analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapon text last 
October, with the text only going so far as to state: "There is a 
full possibility of further development of a nuclear weapons 
program, so there is need to carefully watch their moves, including 
miniaturization and war-head development." 
 
In addition, with this being the first white paper to be published 
since the raising of the defense agency to a ministry, there is a 
new chapter on the Self-Defense Forces, since the change, being 
given international peacekeeping operations as a main duty. 
 
(6) Japan now on very thin ice, starts sinking (Part 4): "I want to 
erase wrong image of Japan" 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged) 
July 6, 2007 
 
Researcher Yuki Tatsumi at the Henry L. Stimson Center, a think tank 
in Washington, received a telephone call in early September of last 
year from Dennis Halpin, an assistant to Foreign Affairs Committee 
Chairman Henry Hyde (Republican). Halpin said: "What's going on in 
Japan?" 
 
On August 15, just before the phone call, (then) Prime Minister 
Junichiro Koizumi visited Yasukuni Shrine, coming under heavy fire 
from major American press companies. Some of them reported that 
nationalism was surging in Japan. 
 
Halpin told Tatsumi that the committee would hold a public hearing 
titled, "Relations between Japan and its neighbors," and asked her 
to speak as a Japanese on such issues as the rise of nationalism. 
Sakie Yokota, mother of abduction victim Megumi Yokota, had 
testified at the same committee five months before, but it is quite 
rate for a Japanese to speak of Japan's policy on such an occasion. 
Tatsumi hoped to do her best to wipe out the wrong image about 
Japan. 
 
Tatsumi felt uncomfortable when she read these two articles: 
"Thought police are gaining power in Japan" that ran in the Aug. 27 
issue of the Washington Post and "A series of worrisome events" in 
the news letter issued by the Pacific Forum CSIS on August 24. The 
first article stressed that right-wingers seeking a return to the 
militarism that dominated the nation in the 1930s were becoming 
mainstream in Japan, while the second one analyzed that a political 
atmosphere of constraining free speech was being created. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003100  006 OF 009 
 
 
Tatsumi said: "These articles give us the impression that Japan is 
tinged with extremist nationalism. I must accurately convey Japan's 
current circumstances." Tatsumi was born in Tokyo. She studied 
security affairs at the John Hopkins University Graduate School 
after graduating from International Christian University. She once 
worked at the Japanese Embassy as a special analyst. She was trained 
to be able to express what she wants to say in a five-minute 
speech. 
 
In the public hearing on Sept. 14, Chairman Hyde said, "Yasukuni 
Shrine worships the souls of war criminals." Tom Lantos (Democrat) 
also critically said: "(The prime minister's visit to Yasukuni 
Shrine) is tantamount to placing a wreath on the grave of the Nazi 
Himmler." 
 
Michael Green, former senior director for Asian Affairs at the 
National Security Council, Kurt Campbell, former deputy assistant 
secretary of defense, and Mindy Kotler, a female activist, testified 
 
SIPDIS 
in the public hearing. Following them, Tatsumi talked about the 
significance of the prime minister's annual visit to Yasukuni Shrine 
as follows: 
 
"The prime minister's visit is intended to pay respects to soldiers 
who died in World War II and to renew his pledge for peace. A visit 
to Yasukuni Shrine means there is healthy development in Japan, that 
is, Japan is facing its own past and self-reflecting on it ... Most 
Japanese do not support those views that admiring their country's 
past military aggression. Nationalism in Japan means to many people 
a feeling of being proud of one's country. It is close to the 
concept of patriotism in the United States." 
 
Of 52 Congress members who participated in the public hearing, eight 
took the floor as questioners. Barbara Lee (Democrat) said: "I heard 
that Japan is preparing to enable Japan to engage in warfare by 
changing its pacifist constitution." In response, Tatsumi stated: 
 
"There exists in Japan among the people an understanding that we 
must never again engage in aggressive war. Under the government's 
current interpretation of the Constitution, when Self-Defense Force 
(SDF) troops participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations 
with American or Chinese troops, SDF personnel are not allowed to 
come to their aid even if they are attacked. The ongoing debate in 
Japan is aimed to enable the SDF to assist troops from other 
countries." 
 
Lantos summarized the meeting with this comment: "All of us learned 
a lot." Halpin also shook hands with Tatsumi, saying, "It was very 
good." Tatsumi believed she did her best to portrait the real 
picture of Japan with her own words, but she was not sure about to 
what extent she was able to have the US, Japan's sole ally, 
understand its basic position. 
 
English newspapers give the image of Japan as "a terrible country" 
 
"Even 10 PERCENT  of what Japanese think has not been properly 
relayed to foreign countries. The United States determines its 
policy, based only on what was dispatched in English." 
 
In a symposium in Tokyo this March, Tsuneo Watanabe, a visiting 
researcher at CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), 
stressed how poor Japan's capability to transmit and disseminate its 
messages to foreign countries. He then quoted a statement by a 
 
TOKYO 00003100  007 OF 009 
 
 
minister in Southeast Asia as saying: "Reading English newspapers, 
we think what an awful country Japan is, but it is not true in 
actuality. I wonder why there is such a wide gap between the reality 
of Japan and what is related in English." 
 
The English-language media tend to take Japan as a somewhat weird 
country. Even within the nation, there are also some who dispatch 
such an image of Japan, resulting in stressing the image of a 
distorted Japan. For instance, some report that Japan is about to 
rush toward militarism. 
 
In actuality, though, Japan is about to become a normal state in 
accordance with what the international community see as common 
sense, as Tatsumi said. 
 
The problem is how far the Japanese government has talked about it 
and how it has dispatched this fact to foreign countries. 
 
Since he assumed office last September, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe 
has an intention to revise the Constitution and to study scenarios 
about the use of the right to collective self-defense. He is the 
first postwar prime minister to speak of amending the Constitution. 
 
The Washington Post noted on Sept. 25 of last year: "Japan's 
pacifism is about to be weakened." But it can be taken as just the 
opposite to mean that Japan's face is becoming more visible. 
 
Abe's predecessors never talked much about the government's policy, 
because they blindly followed the established policy of giving 
priority to economic growth while relying on the US on the security 
front. 
 
Should Japan continue to be a "silent power," it will just be tossed 
about by the wild waves of international politics. 
 
(Corrected copy) Koike assumes one key post after another owing to 
"keen sense of (political) smell," arousing jealousy of lawmakers 
eager to join cabinet 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 24) (Full) 
July 5, 2007 
 
The first female defense minister in history was inaugurated 
yesterday. This is the second cabinet post given to Yuriko Koike, 
who has served five terms in the House of Representatives. Some 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members who are yearning for a 
cabinet post are overheard saying, "I wonder why only Koike has been 
treated favorably." But such lawmakers first should learn from her 
how to get along in the political world. 
 
In a press conference she gave after assuming the top defense post, 
Defense Minister Koike countered an attack against Democratic Party 
of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro Ozawa, who has stepped up his 
criticism of the Abe administration. 
 
Koike said: "I know best about Mr. Ozawa's defense policy. In 
Minshuto, (views over defense policy) are split. Ozawa should 
announce not his own ideals but the party's policy. Unfortunately, I 
have to return (his criticism) to him." The reason why she had to 
"unfortunately" denounce the leader of the main opposition party is 
because she moved from party to party. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003100  008 OF 009 
 
 
After graduating from Cairo University, Koike served as an 
anchorwoman for the TV Tokyo program, "World Business Satellite." In 
1992, she ran as a candidate backed by the Japan New Party in the 
House of Councillors election, ranked 2nd, following party head 
Morihiro Hosokawa, among candidates for the party's proportional 
representation segment and was elected for the first time. 
 
In 1993, Koike ran in the Hyogo No. 2 constituency of the Lower 
House election and won a Lower House seat for the first time. She 
joined the defunct New Frontier Party supporting current Minshuto 
leader Ichiro Ozawa in 1994. After the party was disbanded in 1997, 
she became a member of Jiyuto (the Liberal Party). When Jiyuto left 
the coalition government in April 2000, she took part in 
establishing Hoshuto (the Conservative Party), separating from 
Ozawa. 
 
Koike became a member of the LDP in December 2002. In July 2003, she 
joined the Mori faction (now, the Machimura faction), from which 
Junichiro Koizumi became prime minister in July 2003. She served as 
environment minister from September 2003 through September 2006, 
during which she pushed for the introduction of the Cool Biz 
campaign, a casual business dress code. 
 
In the 2005 general election, Koike volunteered for Koizumi's first 
"assassin" position against an LDP lawmaker who voted against postal 
privatization bills, changing her constituency from Hyogo to the 
Tokyo No. 10 constituency. At that time, Koizumi flattered her by 
saying: "You are really courageous, though you are also charming." 
When the Abe administration was launched last September, she was 
appointed as Abe's special advisor. 
 
Some call her a "migratory bird," focusing on her hopping from one 
political party to another. But all of the five political parties to 
which Koike once belonged are now defunct. It can also be taken that 
Koike is a successful woman who rode out the storm of the 
reorganization of the political scene that started in the 1990s. 
What is to be particularly noted is that she got in close to the 
most influential figures in the political parties to which she 
belonged or belongs, such as former Prime Minister Hosokawa, Ozawa, 
former Prime Minister Koizumi, and Prime Minister Abe. 
 
The following was a typical success story in the LDP in the past: A 
high position is finally awarded to a person who pledged loyalty to 
his or her factional boss and steadily dealt with unspectacular work 
for decades. Koike's political stance, however, is far from this 
style. Her case might be regarded as a new success model. 
 
Kichiya Kobayashi, a political commentator, said: "Ms. Koike has a 
keen sense of smell to sniff out who holds the supreme power of the 
time. This must be something she was born with." He added: "While 
assuming political power for five years and five months, Prime 
Minister Koizumi picked himself those with whom he wanted to work, 
abolishing the conventional stance of giving priority to a balance 
between factions and to seniority. This new approach has now taken 
root. In the current political world, lawmakers who have a poor 
sense of smell will never be blessed with an important post, even if 
they are competent." 
 
Will anyone be promoted to an important post if they improve their 
sense of smell? To this question, Kobayashi replied: "If you make 
such efforts unskillfully, those around you might take the efforts 
as part of trickery and boo you. In such a case, the prime minister 
 
TOKYO 00003100  009 OF 009 
 
 
will find it difficult to field you to a key post. If such a sense 
of smell is natural one, though, criticism will not grow louder." It 
seems difficult for conventional-type lawmakers to follow Koike's 
political stance. 
 
Koike published the book titled, "Ways for women to establish 
personal contacts - Success women's passport." Koike might become 
the first (prime minister) in (the nation's) history. 
 
SCHIEFFER