VZCZCXRO3357
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #1578 1970827
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160827Z JUL 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5990
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7027
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1229
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2001
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5969
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0406
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8274

UNCLAS TAIPEI 001578 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP, EAP/PD 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Think Tank Director Suggests 2008 Presidential Election to 
be "Defining Event" for Taiwan's Future 
 
REF: A) 2006 Taipei 0660 B) 2006 Taipei 4168 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Dr. Soong Hseik-wen, Director of National Chung 
Cheng University's new Institute of Strategy and International 
Affairs (ISIA), told AIT/K that the Institute's main purpose is to 
promote Taiwan's democratization, localization, and security.  Dr. 
Soong stressed the importance of the 2008 presidential election as a 
"defining event" for Taiwan's future.  If Taiwan wants to pursue 
independence, he argued, it must do so in the next several years 
before China has grown into a superpower.  End Summary. 
 
Institute of Strategy and International Affairs 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶2. (SBU) Funded by the central government in cooperation with 
National Chung Cheng University, ISIA was founded in 2006 to promote 
and support Taiwan democratization, localization, and security. 
Although the Institute supports Taiwan independence, it acknowledges 
the possibility of unification with China, Dr. Soong told AIT/K. 
ISIA considers Taiwan currently to be an independent state and 
identifies the PRC as a security threat, not only to the island, but 
to East Asia as a whole. Therefore, cross-Strait relations and U.S. 
foreign policy remain high on the Institute's research priorities. 
The Institute receives partial funding from Taiwan's Ministry of 
Defense. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In addition to playing an academic role, Dr. Soong and the 
Institute also serve as consultants to government committees in 
order to facilitate an ongoing dialogue between scholars and 
government officials.  Dr. Soong told AIT/K that ISIA soon will take 
a further step and play an active role in the 2008 elections, though 
he declined to define what he meant by "active role." 
 
Taiwanese Identity 
------------------ 
¶4. (SBU) Democratization is fueling Taiwanese identity and 
independence, Dr. Soong said.  The DPP has strengthened its position 
by unifying the four different ethnicities on the island (Taiwanese, 
Hakka, Aborigine, and Mainlander) under one "Taiwanese identity" 
umbrella.  The DPP government has used a variety of tactics, such as 
new education policies regarding language education and history 
textbooks to establish a cohesive Taiwan identity (see ref A).  Dr. 
Soong predicted that nationalism will continue to grow in Taiwan and 
will manifest itself in a serious push for independence (see ref B). 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Taiwan's democratization, its fight for international space 
and the continual growth of China are all affecting the current 
cross-Strait balance, according to Dr. Soong.  Dr. Soong suggested 
that the effects of these developments will be reflected in the 
upcoming legislative and presidential elections. 
 
2008 Elections 
-------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Dr. Soong said that what is at stake in the 2008 elections 
will only become clear as time goes on.  Currently, the economic and 
independence issues are competing for the spotlight in the 
presidential election campaign.  Dr. Soong predicted that 
referendums will be held related to these two issues, and the people 
will decide where Taiwan's priorities should lie. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although now not sufficiently unified to take any serious 
steps toward independence, the Taiwanese are headed in that 
direction, Dr. Soong asserted.  If Taiwan wants to pursue 
independence, Dr. Soong suggested, it must act within the next five 
years.  Otherwise, he argued, China will have grown into such a 
superpower that "Taiwan's cry for independence will be silenced." 
The small window of opportunity ensures the 2008 presidential 
election will be a "defining event" for Taiwan's future, Dr. Soong 
predicted. 
 
Pierre-Louis 
 
Young