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DE RUEHUL #2096/01 1940105
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130105Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5484
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2807
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 8134
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2921
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 2060
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUALSFJ/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//

UNCLAS SEOUL 002096 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: REGIONALISM: STILL A FACTOR IN KOREAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. SEOUL 1756 
 
     ¶B. SEOUL 1684 
     ¶C. SEOUL 270 
     ¶D. SEOUL 1841 
     ¶E. SEOUL 1711 
     ¶F. SEOUL 2048 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Korean voters have traditionally voted in regional 
blocs for their favored candidate in local and national 
elections.  In the 2002 presidential elections, Roh Moo-hyun 
received over 90 percent support in the southwest Jeolla 
Provinces.  Despite Roh's campaign pledge to rid politics of 
regionalism's "evil influence", it will likely be an 
important, if not the dominant, factor in the December 2007 
presidential elections.  While all of the leading 
presidential candidates have eschewed regionalism in public 
statements, they continue to draw their political base of 
support from their respective regions.  Former President Kim 
Dae-jung has welcomed a steady flow of progressive candidates 
(ref A) seeking his approval and subsequent voter support 
from his traditional base in the southwest.  Even Roh has 
admitted that traditional regional loyalties must be 
exploited for the progressives to have any chance in 
December.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------- 
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Some historians trace regionalism in Korea to the 
Three Kingdom period, two thousand years ago, when Goguryeo 
represented the DPRK, Baekje standing for Honam (Southwest 
Jeolla Provinces) and Silla for Yeongnam (Southeast 
Gyeongsang Provinces).   Many blame the late president Park 
Chung-hee for modern-day regionalism in Korea due to his 
centrally-planned economic measures that heavily favored the 
Gyeongsan Provinces.  Coming from Gumi in North Gyeongsang 
Province, Park actively turned the voters in his home region 
of Yeongnam against his dissident archrival, Kim Dae-jung, in 
the 1971 presidential elections.  Demographically, Honam has 
5,021,548 people and Yeongnam has 12,701,303 people, 
representing 10.6 percent and 26.9 percent respectively of 
the entire population.  The actual numbers are more balanced 
because there are many more Honam people living away from 
home than there are from Yeongnam.  For the past 30 years, 
these two regions have strongly supported the "homegrown" 
candidate with less regard for the candidate's policy goals. 
This loyalty extends to those voters from the Honam or 
Yeongnam region living in Seoul or other regions.  In 
addition to uneven economic development, those from the 
"right" area (Yeongnam) were favored with cabinet positions 
or other influential posts. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Park Chung-hee administration concentrated 
development efforts in the southeast in the 1960s and 70s, 
with projects such as the construction of the Seoul-Busan 
highway, the creation of an industrial complex in Ulsan, and 
the location of POSCO (the world's second largest integrated 
steel mill) at Pohang.  Even the owners of the handful of 
factories that were built in Honam hailed from Yeongnam. 
Chaebols, or family-owned conglomerates, hailing from 
Yeongnam were also favored with more generous tax, foreign 
exchange and licensing benefits.  As a result, the population 
in Jeolla Provinces experienced a chronic decrease in the 
1970s, while that of Gyeongsang province rose sharply.  On 
the personnel front, Cabinet Ministers and Vice Ministers 
since the Chun Doo-hwan administration who hail from Yeongnam 
accounted for 37 percent, while those from Honam accounted 
for only 19 percent.  Particularly during the Chun Doo-hwan, 
Roh Tae-woo and Kim Young-sam administrations, the 
percentages of Youngnam ministers were 43 percent, 41 percent 
and 40.7 percent, respectively.  This era of regional 
favoritism led many to brand the practice of regional 
favoritism as "evil" and a "curse." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Several of the key players in the regionalism 
debate surrounding the upcoming presidential election were at 
the center of the same debate during the spring 2004 
parliamentary elections.  GNP candidate Park Geun-hye was 
selected as the party chair in March 2004, and she 
immediately commenced a campaign effort in Daegu and the 
Gyeongsang Provinces (Park's home region) in preparation for 
the April parliamentary elections.  Then Uri Chairman Chung 
Dong-young said, "Park should not stir up regionalism and use 
it in her favor.  I hope the April 15 elections will be a 
turning point of the country's election history by breaking 
regionalism."  Kim Han-gill, leader of a group of Uri 
defectors who became the Moderate Unified Democrats (ref B), 
was also heavily involved in the election as Uri's top 
campaign strategist. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The April 2004 elections did not live up to the 
expectations, as representatives were chosen closely along 
regional lines.  Angered by the opposition's attempts to 
impeach Roh in April 2004 just before the National Assembly 
elections, Uri voters responded strongly in the southwest and 
around Seoul, while the GNP received solid support only in 
the southeast.  Given the limited time that Park had to rally 
her party, she relied heavily on support from her traditional 
regional base while the ruling party used anger at the 
opposition camp and their own regional ties to garner 
support. 
 
---------------- 
EAST-WEST DIVIDE 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Undoubtedly, regionalism persists, although an 
argument can be made that it is less severe now than in the 
recent past.  For example, the 2002 presidential elections 
were also marked by a generational divide.  Younger voters 
turned out in force to support Roh Moo-hyun while older 
voters tended to support his rival, Lee Hoi-chang.  The two 
major political parties today - the GNP and Uri - are at the 
opposing ends of the political spectrum, accurately labeled 
conservative and liberal.  The population density in Seoul 
also continues to increase with no sign of a downturn; 
further taking voters out of politically charged regions and 
into the more neutral voting arena of metropolitan Seoul. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Still, a significant number of voters from Honam 
and Yeongnam tend to continue voting along regional lines, 
even after moving to Seoul.  A poll right after the April 
2004 general election shows that, although just 27 percent of 
voters nationwide voted for parties from the same region as 
they hail from, the figure sharply rose for those from Honam 
(53.6 percent) and Yeongnam (45.3 percent) regions.  The 
older the voters, the more they tended to vote based on 
regional loyalty.  Voters in their 40s, 50s, and over were 
more likely than those in their 20s and 30s to vote according 
to regional ties. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Experts suggest that it is the middle of the 
country where you can find the most balanced community of 
voters.  A recent news article in the conservative Donga Ilbo 
newspaper suggested that Korea is looking for a voting 
district that could act like New Hampshire and be a barometer 
for how the rest of the nation is likely to vote.  The 
experts suggested that Goesan County in North Choongchung 
province has the best track record of voting for presidential 
candidates who were ultimately successful in being elected. 
The article further suggested that there are also several 
locations in the Seoul Metropolitan area that have 
successfully predicted election outcomes. 
 
----------------------- 
CENTER-LEFT PERSPECTIVE 
----------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Uri Party defectors have attempted to use 
regionalism to their advantage since the mass defections 
began in late January.  Many hoped the Jeolla native and 
former PM Goh Kun could gain broad national support in 
addition to strong support in the southwest, but Goh dropped 
out of the presidential race in January.  Next, progressives 
hoped former Seoul National University President Chung 
Un-chan could lead the creation of a Jeolla-Choongchung 
regional party, but this also failed to materialize.  Most 
pundits note that Chung was not attractive as a candidate, 
but had simply had the right regional background, which 
ultimately proved insufficient to make a run at the 
presidency.  Later, they attempted to broker a deal with the 
Choongchung-based People First Party (PFP), but it is unclear 
if the PFP will join the progressives or the conservatives. 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) On June 4, the Democratic Party (DP) concluded 
negotiations with Uri defectors led by Rep. Kim Han-gill to 
join forces as the third-largest voting bloc in the National 
Assembly with 34 members (ref B).  The DP remains synonymous 
with former President Kim Dae-jung and his strong support 
base in the Jeolla Provinces.  Given this large and important 
group of voters, several individuals and groups within the 
progressive camp were actively courting the DP.  The new 
combined party, called the Moderate United Democrats (MUD), 
claims to be anti-Roh and anti-GNP (ref D).  President Roh 
spoke out against the formation of a regional-based 
coalition, saying such a coalition meant a return to 
old-fashioned regionalism-based politics.  Roh continues to 
criticize any regional-based coalition, but in May publicly 
stated that if a broad, progressive coalition had to be 
formed, he would not stand in its way. 
 
--------------- 
GNP PERSPECTIVE 
--------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Former Seoul Mayor and presidential front-runner 
Lee Myung-bak asserts that the era of a politician winning 90 
plus percent in a given district are gone.  In ref E, Lee 
told the Ambassador that he only needed to receive 20 percent 
of the votes in the Jeolla region in order to assure victory 
(he claims he currently has between 25 and 30 percent support 
there).  This is probably wishful thinking because most of 
Lee's support in the Jeolla region will vanish as soon as a 
unified liberal candidate emerges. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Former GNP Chairperson Park Geun-hye, who is 
steadily making up ground with Lee in the polls (ref F) will 
continue to rely on her strong support base in the 
southeastern region as she has in the past.  She is even less 
likely than Lee to pick up additional votes in the Jeolla 
region given her perceived weaker economic platform and 
because of the lingering resentment in the region toward 
former president/dictator Park Chung-hee (1961-1979), her 
father. 
 
------------------------ 
KIM DAE-JUNG'S INFLUENCE 
------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In the span of one week in May, former president 
Kim Dae-Jung met separately with three of the leading 
center-left candidates: Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and 
Kim Han gill.  While the former president is said to be 
working to unify the various candidates, the candidates 
themselves sought Kim's endorsement and subsequent voter 
support from the Jeolla provinces where Kim maintains a loyal 
following.  In response to Kim's meetings and related public 
statements, GNP Chairman Kang Jae-sup said, "It does not make 
sense that a person who has claimed to be a victim of 
regionalism is now actively promoting it."  Kim has said 
publicly that he advises the liberals to present a unified 
candidate who can compete strongly against the winner of the 
GNP primary. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Like the elephant in the living room, regionalism 
is an obvious truth that South Korean politicians like to 
pretend to ignore.  Most Koreans are ashamed that there 
should be such a divide between the east and west.  True, a 
good argument can be made that regionalism is becoming less 
pervasive as voters become more concerned with policy issues 
rather than regional issues and as the population continues 
to migrate away from the outlying provinces and into Seoul. 
But all evidence shows that the divide is still very wide.  A 
particularly daunting statistic is that in the 2002 
presidential election, Roh Moo-hyun, who does not come from 
the Jeolla region, won 93 percent of Jeolla votes, just 1 
percent less than Kim Dae-jung won in 1997.  All this support 
was because Roh was the non-GNP (or non-Yeongnam) candidate. 
VERSHBOW