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FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
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INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2787
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RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 2051
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUALSFJ/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
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RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//

UNCLAS SEOUL 002047 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: CAN THE NON-GNP CANDIDATES COME TOGETHER? 
 
REF: SEOUL 1841 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (U) Despite a GNP-centered race thus far, the liberal 
side is also gearing up for the presidential race, with a 
steady flow of hopefuls throwing their hat into the ring. 
Major center-left hopefuls, mostly those from the ruling 
camp, recently agreed to launch a new united party and stand 
behind a single candidate.  But the path toward that goal 
will not be easy as they will have tQvercome numerous 
obstacles, including resistance from the Uri Party and the 
Moderate United Democrats (MUD) loyalists, rules on the "open 
primary", and the actual viability of the eventual candidate. 
 For these reasons, some predict the liberals would rather 
conduct separate primaries by faction than unify behind a 
single candidate at the last minute. For now, Sohn Hak-kyu, 
the former Gyeonggi governor who bolted from the GNP, remains 
in front with all other liberals trailing several points 
behind in all polls.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The current race has apparently been characterized by 
the competition between Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, the 
"big two" conservative candidates.  Political Science 
Professor Kang Won-taek at Soongsil University told us that 
the liberal/progressive side lacked any defining element to 
solidify its core supporters this time around, whereas 
regionalism played a key part in the 1997 election and 
generational gap did the same in 2002.  But the center-left 
is nonetheless actively scrambling ahead of the election, 
trying to maintain a viable shot at the presidency. 
Moreover, although national security issues are not generally 
perceived as the top priority in the current campaign, DPRK 
issues can always become a factor given a last-minute 
breakthrough, such as a South-North summit, according to Han 
Gue-young, Senior Researcher at the Korea Society Opinion 
Institute (KSOI), a polling company. 
 
¶3.  (U) On July 4, Kim Geun-tae and six presidential hopefuls 
from the center-left, namely, Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young, 
Lee Hae-chan, Han Myeong-sook, Kim Hyuk-kyu, and Chun 
Jung-bae, agreed to form a united party later this month and 
stand behind a single presidential candidate.  Subsequently, 
a group of Uri defectors came up with a more concrete 
"roadmap" toward the launch of a new party that would 
incorporate all Uri factions by the end of July or early 
August.  They are seeking ways to absorb the Uri party, as 
well as joining hands with NGOs.  Some say that, should the 
resistance of pro-Roh members of the Uri Party become too 
fierce, those who support a broader integration would have to 
defect collectively to join the new party.  In this case, the 
primary in this camp would have to be conducted in three 
different "factions", i.e., the faction seeking a new party, 
the Moderate United Democrats, and the remaining Uri party 
members. 
 
---------------------- 
WHO'S WHO IN THE RACE? 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young, and Lee Hae-chan are 
the so-called "big three" on the center-left side, more 
commonly referred to as "progressives."  While Sohn and Chung 
are anti-Roh candidates, Lee is an unabashed pro-Roh 
candidate.  Both Sohn and Chung are trying to bridge the gap 
between the group seeking a broad integration and the MUD, in 
an effort to incorporate both factions and play a key role 
toward the unification of the fractured progressives.  The 
reason they cannot ignore the MUD is that the party has a 
firm support base in the Jeolla region, the home to anti-GNP 
voters.  To win Jeolla voters, Sohn must overcome his image 
as a GNP has-been.  Chung equally needs to solidify his 
traditional support base in the Jeolla region.  KSOI's Han 
says, however, unlike Sohn who is enjoying the highest polls 
among non-GNP hopefuls, Chung's popularity has been on a 
constant decline ever since it peaked between late 2002 and 
early 2004. 
 
¶5.  (U) Lee Hae-chan, who served as the Prime Minister from 
2004 to 2006, kicked off his presidential bid in earnest in 
mid-June.  Researcher Han Gue-young suggests that his 
perceived strengths include: 1) his close ties to both former 
President Kim Dae-jung and incumbent President Roh Moo-hyun; 
2) his hometown being in the Choongchung province, a swing 
district and a good place to start absorbing voters in the 
Jeolla province; and 3) his appeal as a viable answer to 
GNP's Lee Myung-bak, in terms of drive and decisiveness.  But 
on the other hand, Han said, he has yet to overcome his 
limited approval rating (between eight and nine percent among 
non-GNP hopefuls, and three percent among all hopefuls), and 
his negative image associated with the golf scandal of March 
¶2006.  Nevertheless, KSOI researcher Han said Lee is expected 
to be the most viable among all pro-Roh candidates, 
surpassing Han Myeong-sook, Kim Hyuk-kyu and Kim Doo-kwan, 
and would eventually compete with Sohn Hak-kyu and Chung 
Dong-young for the nomination on the progressive side. 
 
¶6.  (U) Additionally, Choo Mi-ae, former lawmaker and DP 
chairwoman, Shin Ki-nam, former Uri chairman, and Rhee In-je, 
former presidential candidate in both 1997 and 2002, have all 
announced their bids.  Former Health and Welfare Minister 
Rhyu Simin, who was formerly an aide to Lee Hae-chan, and 
Yuhan Kimberly CEO Moon Kook-hyun are also said to be 
considering entering the race. 
 
----------- 
WAY FORWARD 
----------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Talks on the primary rules are under way, with a view 
to reaching an agreement by mid-July.  Among the proposals 
include a schedule of holding a "cut-off primary" by the end 
of August in order to first filter out the less-popular 
hopefuls, then move on to the real primary sometime in 
September and confirm their candidate by October.  Meanwhile, 
some members of the Moderate United Democrats are also said 
to be ready to defect their party sometime in July to join 
the new party yet to be launched. 
 
¶8.  (U) Still, nothing is clear on the broad array of 
center-left groups: 1) Whether the MUD as a party will join 
the broader progressive integration; 2) Whether the Uri 
loyalists will keep resisting the integration;  3) How the 
rules for an "open primary" or public participation in a 
primary will be set out and implemented; and 4) How they will 
avoid criticism of a "makeshift" party reshuffle, since 
everyone except Sohn among the six hopefuls who agreed to 
pursue a unified party are related to the Uri party, either 
as the Uri leadership or Cabinet officials in this 
administration. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) If all of this is confusing, it's because it is. 
Simply put, the center-left is being torn in a number of 
directions, especially between the Roh-loyalists and those 
who want to completely disassociate themselves from the 
unpopular president.  The only item they agree on is that a 
GNP candidate may not be elected as president in December, 
which, conventional wisdom has it is enough to produce a 
unified candidate eventually.  Perhaps, but time is running 
out for them to get their act together. 
VERSHBOW