VZCZCXRO5941
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #2646/01 2111350
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301350Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0992
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1249
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 4643
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9030
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 002646 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR PRM/AFR M. LANGE, AF/S R. MARBURG, S. HILL 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID/DCHA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PREF ZI SF
SUBJECT: NO SAG CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR GROWING INFLUX OF 
ZIMBABWEANS 
 
REF: HARARE 157 
 
PRETORIA 00002646  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
This Cable is Sensitive but Unclassified.  Not for Internet 
Distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Despite the growing influx of Zimbabweans 
into South Africa, the SAG has not initiated contingency 
planning for a refugee crisis, according to UNHCR and IOM 
officials.  The majority of Zimbabweans entering South Africa 
are "victims of bad political governance," UNHCR argued, not 
technically "refugees" under the U.N. Refugee Convention, nor 
traditional economic migrants.  UNHCR is concerned about the 
protection of vulnerable groups, especially children, 
crossing the border.  Post recommends that PRM send a 
representative to South Africa to continue discussions on the 
situation and to consider possible avenues for U.S. 
engagement and assistance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Flow of Zimbabwean Refugees Increasing 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Numerous press and anecdotal reports suggest that 
the number of Zimbabweans crossing into South Africa both 
legally and illegally has increased significantly in recent 
weeks, likely in response to the deteriorating economic 
situation in Zimbabwe.  Journalist Geoff Hill told PolOff 
July 23 that during a recent border visit, the South African 
Police Service (SAPS) told him that 3,000 Zimbabweans a day 
were crossing the border illegally into South Africa, what 
one official called a human "tsunami."  South African farmers 
in Limpopo have complained to the South African Government 
(SAG) about the increase in illegal border crossings.  The 
SAG has refused to estimate the scale, but has admitted 
publicly that the number of Zimbabweans crossing the border 
is increasing. 
 
¶3. (U) Parliamentarians from the African National Congress 
(ANC) and opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) have visited 
the Zimbabwe border in recent weeks.  DA Spokesman Mike Lowe 
said that 5,000-6,000 Zimbabweans per day are entering South 
Africa legally at Beitbridge (with more than half of those 
not returning to Zimbabwe).  Lowe claimed that an even larger 
number are crossing illegally, upwards of 1,000 on one farm 
alone.  The DA has called for the establishment of refugee 
camps to house Zimbabweans. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The recent arrivals join a large Zimbabwean exile 
community in South Africa.  Estimates of the number of 
Zimbabweans living in South Africa vary widely from one to 
three million.  DepForMin Aziz Pahad said publicly July 5 
that the number "continues to increase," noting the estimate 
of three million.  Abel Mbilinyi, Deputy Representative of 
the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugee (UNHCR) told PolOffs 
and USAID/OFDA Officer that he believes the 3 million figure 
is exaggerated, but observed that since most Zimbabweans are 
in the country illegally, accurate estimates are nearly 
impossible. 
 
--------------------------- 
Little Contingency Planning 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The South African Government (SAG) has undertaken 
little contingency planning to deal with a possible 
Zimbabwean refugee/migration crisis, according to UNHCR's 
Mbilinyi and IOM Regional Representative Hans-Petter Boe. 
Mbilinyi and Boe noted that the SAG had developed contingency 
plans in 2001, including identifying a reception center at a 
former military base 60 kilometers from the Zimbabwe border, 
but that these plans were never put into action because the 
tripwires (50 people/day requesting asylum) were never 
triggered. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Approximately two months ago, the Provincial 
Government of Limpopo, the province that borders Zimbabwe, 
invited UNHCR and IOM to a planning meeting on a possible 
Zimbabwean refugee/migration crisis.  The provincial meeting 
was preliminary and did not address concrete planning issues. 
 
PRETORIA 00002646  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 The province invited the national Department of Home Affairs 
(DHA) to the meeting, but DHA representatives did not show 
up, according to IOM's Boe.  To date, the national government 
has not included UNHCR or IOM in formal planning meetings (if 
any have been held). 
 
---------------------- 
Refugee Versus Migrant 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) UNHCR's Mbilinyi commented that Zimbabweans do not 
fall into neat categories - refugee versus migrant, political 
versus economic.  The majority of Zimbabweans are "victims of 
bad governance," not technically refugees under the U.N. 
Refugee Convention.  Even those who might have strong asylum 
claims often do not articulate their cases, instead telling 
SAG officials they came to South Africa for a job or food. 
In addition, Mbilinyi commented that the "pull" factor from 
South Africa remains strong and will only increase in the 
coming years as the South African economy, particularly the 
construction industry, expands.  Zimbabwean workers tend to 
be valued because of their relatively high skill levels and 
English language capabilities. 
 
¶8. (U) Approximately 25,000 Zimbabweans have applied for 
asylum in South Africa since 2000, Mbilinyi said.  Only a 
small number of those cases have been adjudicated by the 
South African Government, and a very small number granted 
asylum.  Asylum applicants have the legal right to work and 
study in South Africa while there claim is pending. 
 
------------------- 
Protection Problem 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) UNHCR's Mbilinyi noted several concerns about the 
protection of Zimbabweans crossing into South Africa: 
 
-- South African law prohibits the deportation of children, 
yet UNHCR believes that child deportations from South Africa 
to Zimbabwe continue, especially by military and SAPS 
officials in Limpopo.  (NOTE: IOM's Beitbridge Reception 
Centre received 1,785 unaccompanied children between January 
and June 2007.  END NOTE.) 
 
-- Criminals are exploiting Zimbabweans crossing the border, 
sometimes promising them safe passage in return for payment, 
but then dumping them at the border. 
 
-- Family reunification remains a major problem, Mbilinyi 
said.  Zimbabwean parents who live in South Africa illegally 
pay "facilitators" to bring their children from Zimbabwe to 
South Africa.  Some of these facilitators abuse children or 
abandon them when confronted by border officials. 
 
IOM has opened a Repatriation Centre in Beitbridge to address 
some of these issues (reftel) and is looking at opening a 
center on the South African side of the border in Musina, as 
well as in Plumtree, Zimbabwe, on the Botswanan border. 
UNHCR is training SAPS officers, the military, and Department 
of Home Affairs officials on protection issues. 
 
------------------ 
Possible Solutions 
------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) Mbilinyi and Boe outlined several possible 
solutions to the Zimbabwe refugee/migration challenge: 
 
-- Better planning:  Both agreed that the SAG needs to step 
up contingency planning for a possible Zimbabwean 
migrant/refugee crisis.  UNHCR hopes any contingency planning 
will look to the future and establish effective assistance 
structures, not just mechanisms to "warehouse" Zimbabweans 
and send them back to Zimbabwe.  IOM is considering 
undertaking its own planning exercise for a possible 
Zimbabwean influx. 
 
-- Short-term visas:  Mbilinyi suggested that the SAG should 
 
PRETORIA 00002646  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
consider creating a short-term visa program for Zimbabweans 
who want to cross into South Africa for a limited amount of 
time, or perhaps even waiving visas for Zimbabweans who cross 
and return the same day.  Such a program for Mozambicans has 
dramatically reduced the number of illegal crossings from 
Mozambique. 
 
-- Work visas:  South African and Zimbabwean officials have 
discussed initiating a program to allow Zimbabweans to work 
in South Africa legally for a fixed amount of time.  This 
would build on a small seasonal work permit program for 
farmworkers in Limpopo. 
 
---------------- 
Action Request 
---------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Post requests that PRM consider sending an official 
to South Africa (and possibly other affected countries) to 
continue discussions with Post, IOM, UNHCR, NGOs, and the 
South African Government on this evolving situation, and to 
explore possible avenues for U.S. assistance.  We are 
concerned that the deteriorating economic and political 
situation in Zimbabwe, particularly with elections looming in 
March 2008, will lead to an even greater influx of 
Zimbabweans into South Africa and a significant humanitarian 
crisis. 
Bost