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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001226 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  EDITION VI 
 
REF: (A) PANAMA 1197 (AND PREVIOUS) (B) PANAMA 1210 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Dichter and Neira's latest poll (REFTEL B), published 
by Panama City broad sheet daily La Prensa on July 16, set 
the political tone for this week.  Taking a significant dive 
in the polls, Panama City Mayor and aspirant for the 
governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) presidential 
nomination Juan Carlos Navarro feigned pessimism about the 
PRD's prospects.  Were it forced to handicap the presidential 
race at this point though, the Panama Post would have to give 
the edge to the PRD.  Meanwhile, opposition leaders jockeyed 
for position in the run-up to opposition party conventions 
and an overall consolidation trend in the opposition. 
Allegedly possible PRD presidential nominee Balbina Herrera 
might be "uncomfortable" with her front-runner status in the 
polls.  Finally, Bolivarian leftist groups voiced their 
opposition to the U.S.-Panama Trade Promition Agreement 
(TPA), but did so three days after the National Assembly 
blessed the agreement.  The following is a summary of this 
week's headlines: 
 
-- Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro feigns pessimism at 
governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)'s 2009 
prospects; 
-- Panama's Bolivarians call for "grand citizen's 
consultation" on U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) 
. . . three days after National Assembly blesses agreement; 
-- Former VP Billy Ford likely to be President of Patriotic 
Union (UP); 
-- Surprisingly buoyant, Panamenista Party President Juan 
Carlos Varela sees opposition scenario simplifying and 
consolidating; 
-- Jose Miguel Aleman likely to be Endara's vice presidential 
running mate; and 
-- Minister of Government and Justice Olga Golcher dishes: 
Pedro Miguel Gonzalez will not/not be President of National 
Assembly, Balbina Herrrera uncomfortable being PRD 
front-runner. 
 
End summary 
 
----------------------------------- 
Navarro:  PRD Going to Lose in 2009 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) "The PRD is going to lose in 2009.  These guys do not 
realize how difficult it will be to keep the PRD in power," 
Panama City Juan Carlos Navarro asserted to Ambassador on 
July 16.  "We have to get to work and get serious if we are 
to have a shot at hanging on to the presidency in 2009."  The 
mayor commented that he did not believe that fellow PRD 
member and Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera would run for 
president, though he conceded that, as any talented 
 
politician, she had to at least be toying with the idea. 
Navarro acknowledged that Herrera would have a decisive role 
to play the PRD's internal maneuvering for the presidential 
nomination and added that so to did President Martin 
Torrijos.  "Herrera and I are getting along very well," the 
mayor said.  "Torrijos and I have never had a better 
relationship."  Nonetheless, a resigned Navarro admitted that 
Torrijos remained steadfast in his support for First VP and 
FM Samuel Lewis despite his low poll numbers and the prospect 
of moving up the PRD's internal elections, as Navarro 
desires, were dim.  Remarking that Lewis entered politics at 
his urging, Navarro said, "I just need to find a way to beat 
my cousin."  Navarro said he believed that Ernesto "El Toro" 
Perez Balladares was a spent force. 
 
¶3. (C) The Panama Post was not sucked in by Navarro's 
pessimistic, gloom and doom scenario for the PRD, but rather 
continues to believe that the 2009 elections currently are 
the PRD's to lose.  Perhaps Navarro was attempting to portray 
himself as a dark horse candidate.  While outwardly 
pessimistic about his party, Navarro seemed resigned to 
current political alignment in the PRD and wishful for a 
realignment of its constellation.  Herrera, who out polled 
Navarro in a recent poll, and Torrijos remain the two great 
unknowns for Navarro's prospects in the PRD. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
MP-UNA's Open Letter to Torrijos on TPA 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) "(W)e demand a broad process of debate regarding the 
Trade Promotion Agreement that culminates in a great 
citizen's consultation that would permit all Panamanians to 
decide" whether to accept this treaty, the People's Movement 
- United for Our America (MP-UNA) declared in its July 14 
open letter to President Torrijos published in Panama City 
daily La Estrella  This Bolivarian umbrella organization 
complained, "(R)epublican and Democratic Congressmen 
introduced modifications to the draft treaty that are 
entirely unknown to our country."  Continuing, the letter 
stated, "What is at play, Mr. President, is the food security 
of our people and the right of self-determination of 
Panamanians regarding its own future."  Asserting the need 
for a public consultation, MP-UNA argued, "The political 
parties represented in the legislative power have lost 
credibility before public opinion," and added that Torrijos' 
call for a special session of the National Assembly to 
consider the treaty was "trickery."  Finally, MP-UNA stated, 
"It is our firm conviction, Mr. President, that, for the 
sovereign interests of the country, the correct path toward 
economic integration has to be with the other peoples of our 
America.  Therefore, our position is in favor of Panama 
integrating itself as a member of ALBA (Free Bolivarian Area 
of the Americas)."  The letter was signed by the following 
MP-UNA coordinators:  Dr. Miguel A. Candanedo (Secretary 
General of the University of Panama); Dr. Carlos Wong; 
Professor Dania Batista; Saul Mendez, Secretary General of 
radical Sole National Union of Workers of the Construction 
Industry and Similar Industries (SUNTRACS); Gloria Castillo; 
Javier Viquez; Silvestre Diaz; Manuel Prado; Eric Fernandez; 
Tayra Stanley; and Carlos Nunez. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  Though published three days after Panama's 
National Assembly had already acted on the TPA, the fact that 
it was published at all was a minor success for MP-UNA . 
Candanedo and Alternative Policy Party (PAP) President Omeldo 
Beluche, an MP-UNA member, separately complained to POLCOUNS 
that MP-UNA and other leftist organizations had little access 
to the media as "oligarchic" interests "undemocratically" 
barred their access.  Established only about two months 
earlier, this letter provides insight into MP-UNA's views: 
(a) the traditional parties are out of touch and lack 
credibility; (b) only a direct popular consultation (read:  a 
referendum) would provide a truly sovereign decision; (c) the 
political elites in the U.S. and Panama are tricking the 
Panamanian people; and (d) integration with Panama's 
neighbors through ALBA is the preferred path to economic 
integration.  Floor managers of the TPA debate pressed to 
conclude discussions of the treaty before MP-UNA, through 
organizations such as SUNTRACS and FRENADESO (National Front 
for the Defense of Economic and Social Rights), could mount a 
significant protest. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Billy Ford Apparent UP President 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U)  As widely anticipated, former VP Guillermo "Billy" 
Ford is expected to be elected president of the Patriotic 
Union (UP) party at its convention on September 16.  Though 
other candidacies may still be considered, former Solidarity 
Party President Jose Raul Mulino's and former National 
Liberal Party (PLN) President Anibal Galindo's withdrawal of 
their own candidacies and endorsement of Ford on July 18 
cleared the way for an all but assured victory for Ford. 
Instead, Mulino and Galindo will accept UP vice presidencies. 
 Mulino told the press, "We are building a political project, 
not simply an electoral party."  Galindo added that, by 
stepping aside to bring in Ford as a unifier, Mulino and 
Galindo were demonstrating that UP "will never place personal 
interests above those of the majority of the party or of the 
country."  Ford stated that he would accompany Mulino and 
Galindo on a nationwide tour to engage the UP rank and file. 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment:  Ford stood back and allowed others to 
portray him as the best option for party unification while 
preserving enough political space to accommodate Mulino and 
Galindo.  Ford, Mulino and Galindo will have their work cut 
out for them though as they strive to energize UP bases and 
fully consolidate the Solidarity-PLN marriage that produced 
UP.  For example, only eight percent of the registered 
estimated 120,000 UP members participated in the party's 
recent internal selection of conventioneers.  Panamenista 
Party President Juan Carlos Varela told POLCOUNS on July 18 
that with Ford at the helm UP would not enter into alliance 
with the governing Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and 
could be brought into "a grand opposition alliance" along 
with the Movement of Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) 
and the Panamenista Party.  UP is not expected to field its 
own presidential candidate, but rather to enter into alliance 
to support another party's candidate. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Varela:  Opposition Simplifying, Consolidating 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶8.  (C) Surprisingly buoyant -- his support dropped 
two-thirds from about 15 percent to about 5 percent in the 
most recent publicly available national poll -- Panamenista 
Party President told POLCOUNS July 18 that the opposition 
"scenario" was "simplifying" and the various opposition 
forces were "consolidating."  Acknowledging his own loss of 
support, Varela said he was unconcerned as "strategically" 
the dynamic in the opposition was increasingly setting up a 
three-way presidential race in which the Panamenista Party 
would necessarily be a dominate force.  Varela was dismissive 
that former President Guillermo Endara would be a force:  "He 
will not get the Panamenista support that is essential to 
him," and "His continued presence in the race helps draw the 
distinction between old dinosaurs and new fresh blood."  As 
stated above (para 7), Varela was very satisfied at 
developments in the Patriotic Union (UP) party and believed 
that they would bode well for an alliance.  Varela said that 
soon he and other leading Panamenistas like Jose Blandon, Jr. 
would issue a call for the opposition to unify (of course, 
around the Panamenista Party).  Varela expected that 
Democratic Change (CD) Party President Ricardo Martinelli 
would steer clear from such an initiative.  Martinelli, 
however, would have difficulty sustaining his commanding lead 
in the polls, presently at about 43 percent, Varela 
suggested, particularly once opposition parties held their 
formal conventions and candidates (likely to include Varela) 
announced their runs for the presidency. Varela did not think 
former presidential candidates Alberto Vallarino or Jose 
Miguel Aleman would be forces in the coming campaign. 
"Ultimately, I am very comfortable with the direction 
opposition politics are developing," Varela said.  He 
continued to advocate for an inter-party opposition primary 
-- a non-binding sounding in which opposition party members 
and independents could participate -- as the best way forward 
to consolidate the opposition.  For now, Varela stated that 
he thought there would a three-way race for president between 
Martinelli, the PRD's candidate (most likely First VP and FM 
Samuel Lewis), and a united opposition force's candidate. 
 
¶9.  (C) Comment: The Panama Post concurs with Varela that 
currents in the opposition are simplifying the array of 
opposition forces and encouraging consolidation, but is not 
as convinced that everything may be breaking Varela's way. 
There are still too many cards to be played in the 
opposition's game of Texas Hold'em, and the Panama Post would 
like to see a few more cards before placing any bets. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Jose Miguel Aleman to be Endara's VP Candidate? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶10.  (C) In last week's edition, the Panama Post reported 
that Endara might have chosen his vice presidential nominee, 
according to Endara's close advisor Menalco Solis.  Well, 
accompanying Endara and Solis to lunch with the Ambassador 
next Monday (July 23) will be former Panamenista Party 
Presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman.  Separately, we 
learned from Solis' son that Aleman would likely be Endara's 
vice presidential running mate.  Aleman is close to former 
President Mireya Moscoso.  Panamenista Party President Varela 
seemed decidedly uninterested and unconcerned on July 18 
regarding Aleman's political activities.  Keep your eyes open 
for next week's edition to see if the Panama Post has 
anything further to report on Endara's vice presidential 
choice and the impact that it might have. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Minister of Government and Justice Olga Golcher Dishes 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶11.  (C) "Pedro Miguel Gonzalez will not be the next 
President of the National Assembly," Minister of Government 
and Justice told DCM on July 18.  "Torrijos knows that that 
would create problems with you and that the U.S. has strong 
objections to Pedro Miguel."  In lieu of National Assembly 
Presidency, Golcher asserted that Gonzalez would be given a 
seat on the PRD's Nationial Executive Committee (CEN). 
Turning to the issue of who would be the PRD's nomination for 
preident, Golcher said that Minister of Housing Balbina 
Herrera was "uncomfortable" being the "front-runner" in the 
latest poll.  Concerned that voters tended to switch from one 
party to another from election to election, Golcher explained 
basically that Herrera did not want to lose by being caught 
on the downswing as voters turned the PRD out of power.  From 
this perspective, Golcher said Herrera would be better off 
winning the race for Mayor of Panama City and making a run 
for president instead in 2014. 
 
¶12.  (C) Comment:  The Panama Post has been putting the word 
on the street for the past few weeks that installing 
Gonzalez, a wanted fugitive for the 1992 murder of a U.S. 
serviceman who is also ineligible for a U.S. visa on 
terrorism grounds, as the next National Assembly President 
would be a very, very bad move;  the message appears to have 
gotten through.  As for Herrera, whether she wants to run for 
President or Mayor of Panama City, time will only tell.  This 
week, driven by a "the PRD will be driven out of power" vibe, 
Herrera may be more inclined to going the safe route and 
running for mayor.  Only one thing about Herrera is clear 
though:  she will have an important role to play in the PRD's 
unfolding electoral strategy for 2009. 
Eaton