VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #1210/01 1972159
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 162159Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0832
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA:  NEW POLL OUT 
 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) While Democratic Change (CD) President and presumed 
presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli maintained a 
comfortable lead in the polls and dominated the opposition, 
the real news of Dichter and Neira's latest poll was the near 
two-fold jump in undecideds "don't knows," and "didn't 
answers."  Panama City broadsheet daily La Prensa published 
the results of Dichter and Neira's July 6-8 poll on July 16. 
Other notable results included: 
 
-- Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera's comfortable lead 
among governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) 
presidential hopefuls; 
-- the continued floundering of First VP and FM Samuel Lewis, 
President Martin Torrijos' preferred successor, in the polls; 
-- the significant slip of former President Ernesto "El Toro" 
Perez Balladares in the polls losing nearly have of his 
support to end up at a paltry 3.8 percent support, and 
-- Panamenista Party President Juan Carlos Varela's loss of 
two-thirds of his support since March placing him with a 
meager 2.5 percent support among opposition options. 
 
According to this poll, the race for the PRD presidential 
nomination is between Herrera and Panama City Mayor Juan 
Carlos Navarro while the race to lead the opposition is 
between Martinelli and former President and Moral Vanguard of 
the Nation (VMP) President Guillermo Endara.  Still 
twenty-two months from the May 2009 elections, there are 
still party conventions to be held and formal candidacies to 
be announced though.  In short, there is still plenty of time 
and political space for this race to change and develop.  End 
summary. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
And the Winner is . . . Martinelli, but Undecideds Grow 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Democratic Change (CD) President and presumed 
presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli came out the winner 
in this poll with 22.7 percent, a slip of 2 percentage points 
since March 2007.  The real news of this poll was the 
remarkable growth of undecideds, "did not knows," and "did 
not responds" from 12.6 percent in March to 23.9 percent in 
July, a jump of 11.3 points.  Governing PRD member and 
Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera polled 16.7 percent, down 
0.7 percent from March.  PRD member and Mayor of Panama City 
Juan Carlos Navarro dropped 6.7 points to 12.7 percent. 
Former President and leader of the Moral Vanguard of the 
Nation (VMP) Guillermo Endara gained a little ground, only 
0.8 points, ending up at 8.5 percent.  Meanwhile, PRD member 
and former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares saw 
his support cut nearly in half from 7.4 percent in March to 
3.8 percent in July.  The following candidates did not beat 
the margin of error of the poll (2.9 percent):  Panamenista 
Party President Juan Carlos Varela (2.5 percent), perennial 
presidential aspirant Alberto Vallarino (2.0 percent), and 
PRD member and First VP and FM Samuel Lewis (0.7 percent). 
All candidates except Endara, however, suffered a slide in 
the polls ranging from 0.2 to 6.7 points as undecideds 
increased nearly two-fold. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Herrera Leads Government Candidates 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Herrera led governing PRD party prospects taking 26.8 
percent on a closed question regarding PRD presidential 
hopefuls only.  Navarro trailed Herrera by 7.1 points 
securing 19.7 percent on this question.  Perez Balladares 
(5.8 percent), Lewis (1.3 percent), and former Minister of 
Agriculture Laurentino Cortizo (0.6 percent) lagged 
significantly behind Herrera and Navarro.  A total of 10.9 
percent responded indicated they supported none of the 
candidates. 
 
------------------------------- 
Martinelli Dominates Opposition 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In a closed question regarding the opposition's 
presidential prospects, Martinelli was head and shoulders in 
the lead with 34 percent, a slip of 3 points since March. 
Endara garnered slightly more than one third of Martinelli's 
support with 12.6 percent, a slip of 2.5 points.  Alberto 
Vallarino, who recently announced he was debating whether to 
join the Panamenista or the Patriotic Union (UP) party and 
who has not announced his candidacy, jumped two full points 
to 6.2 percent.  Varela meanwhile lost two-thirds of his 
support plummeting from 15.1 percent in March to 4.9 percent 
in July.  Respondents indicating "none" jumped 10.7 points to 
11.1 percent while "did not know or did not respond" grew 3.6 
points to 27.9 percent. 
 
-------------- 
 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Dichter and Neira Latin Research conducted this poll 
from Friday, July 6 through Sunday, July 8.  The sample size 
was 1,218 face-to-face interviews.  The universe of possible 
interviewees included all Panamanians over the age of 
eighteen residing in Panama.  The sample was 49.7 percent 
female and 50.3 percent male, 69.5 percent lived in rural 
areas and 30.5 percent lived in urban areas, and 31 percent 
indicated a political party affiliation and 69 percent did 
not.  The level of error, confirmed by re-interviews of an 
unknown number of those polled, was plus or minus 2.9 percent. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) The big news in this poll is the growth in undecideds 
and those who indicated no preference for any of the 
presidential options.  Increasingly, voters are in a grumpy 
mood confronted by the increasing cost of goods and services 
(e.g., gasoline, electricity, the basic food basket), the 
perception that the GOP is not doing anything on key issues 
(e.g., public transportation, investigation into the 
dietheylene glycol deaths), and a weariness with politics and 
government as usual (e.g., the spat between the Supreme Court 
and the Attorney General, perceptions of ineptitude in the 
police, continued education problems).  Navarro told 
Ambassador July 16, "There is a general sense of malaise." 
Voters took out their bad feelings on all politicians.  To 
date, we have seen no indication that President Martin 
Torrijos is prepared to step back from his support for Lewis 
to be his successor; this poll will raise more questions 
about Lewis' viability, however.  Also, Varela's precipitous 
drop in the polls will undermine his ability to struggle at 
the helm of the Panamenista party, let alone launch a 
presidential campaign.  Martinelli, the one candidate that 
other opposition parties do not mention in their musings 
about opposition alliances, continues to dominate the 
opposition panorama begging the question of how long other 
opposition parties believe they can refrain from parlaying 
with Martinelli.  The next watershed in the political 
calendar will be the various party conventions, all of which 
except the PRD's, will be held in August and September. 
Eaton