VZCZCXRO4426
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHNC #0620/01 2081411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271411Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8019
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0911
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT PAPADOPOULOS OFFICIALLY ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On July 24, the last of the three main contenders 
for the presidency, incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos, officially 
confirmed that he will seek reelection.  The main themes of his 
televised announcement were the rejection of the Annan Plan and 
support of the subsequent July 8 process as a vehicle for finding a 
new basis for a solution.  Having lost leftist AKEL's support, 
however, Papadopoulos is no longer considered the clear favorite. 
Opinion polls record a gradual decline of his popularity and now 
show all three major candidates with roughly equal chances to make 
it to the second round in February. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Meanwhile, nationalist EVROKO joined DIKO and EDEK in 
supporting Papadopoulos's bid and in becoming an equal partner in 
any future Papadopoulos administration.  EVROKO's shrill 
nationalistic rhetoric and its poor relations with DISY, however, 
will scare away many AKEL and DISY voters who might otherwise have 
been tempted to support Papadopoulos.  For its part, AKEL is not 
only increasing the volume of its criticism of Papadopoulos, it is 
also making a greater effort to move the party away from its 
communist roots toward the center. 
 
Papadopoulos Appeals to "No" Voters to reelect him 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶3.  (SBU) In a July 24 televised address, President Tassos 
Papadopoulos officially launched his reelection campaign.  Flanked 
by a Cypriot and an EU flag and with an open window in the 
background, a calm and confident Papadopoulos revealed that he will 
seek to capitalize on what he considers the key accomplishments of 
his administration:  the rejection of the Annan Plan, the July 8 
process, a recently-announced increase in social benefits, and 
Cyprus's entry into the Euro-zone.  His speech was designed to 
appeal to the 76 percent that voted "no" to the UN-sponsored Annan 
Plan in April 2004.  He argued that the rejection of the Annan plan 
has opened up prospects for a better solution, provided he remained 
in charge to complete the work that he had started.  He placed blame 
for the Annan Plan on former (DISY) President Clerides and claimed 
that, despite his sincere efforts, he could not improve it to the 
point that it could form the blueprint for a viable and functional 
solution.  Aware of the electorate's growing uneasiness over the 
lack of any kind of forward movement on the Cyprus issue, 
Papadopoulos argued that the July 8 process could produce a new 
basis for a solution, provided that Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet 
Ali Talat responded to his call to enter into negotiations on the 
core aspects of the Cyprus problem. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Papadopoulos made a special appeal in his speech to his 
"friends in AKEL" to renew their faith in him "in order to win more 
battles together" and prevent conservative DISY from climbing back 
into power.  His awkward pitch to AKEL voters infuriated AKEL's 
leadership, which launched a series of attacks on Papadopoulos, 
warning him to keep his hands off the party faithful since AKEL now 
has it own candidate.  However, recent opinion polls recording a 
gradual decline in Papadopoulos's popularity clearly indicate that 
he needs to attract votes from AKEL's and DISY's traditional 
electorate if he is to make it into the second round.  The first 
opinion poll carried out only two days after AKEL made its final 
decision on July 8 to back the candidacy of its own General 
Secretary Demetris Christofias, showed a seven percent decline in 
 
SIPDIS 
Papadopoulos's lead, down to 30.8 percent from 37.7 percent in April 
¶2007.  At the same time, Christofias improved his share to 26.3 
percent from 23.9 percent three months ago.  DISY-backed independent 
candidate Ioannis Kasoulides remained second in the race with 29.6 
percent, down from 32.4 percent in April.  Contrary to earlier 
predictions that Papadopoulos would win in a landslide in a second 
round run-off with either one of his main rivals, this poll showed 
Christofias leading with 41.1 percent against Papadopoulos's 39.5 
percent. 
 
Papadopoulos Loses the Aura of Inevitability 
----------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Pundits believe that Papadopoulos has valid reasons to 
worry about his prospects for reelection as the two major parties 
AKEL and DISY appear to have solidified party support for their own 
candidates.  An independent election specialist, with a proven 
record prognosticating in Cypriot elections, told EmbOff that, 
traditionally, the parties that support Papadopoulos, centrist DIKO 
and socialist EDEK, are incapable of delivering one hundred percent 
of the votes they poll in parliamentary elections to the 
presidential candidate they endorse, primarily because of their weak 
party organization but also due to internal rivalries and 
disagreements.  DIKO and EDEK polled 17.9 percent and 8.8 percent in 
the May 2006 parliamentary elections, while AKEL and DISY polled 
31.13 percent and 30.34 percent, respectively.  AKEL is regarded as 
having the best party organization and being able to deliver its 
electorate to the polls.  To date, all Cypriot presidents have been 
elected with either the support of DISY or AKEL. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) A July 25 decision by nationalist European Party (EVROKO 
-- which was formed by defectors from DISY in 2005), to endorse 
 
NICOSIA 00000620  002 OF 002 
 
 
Papadopoulos's candidacy, may prove a double-edged sword.  While the 
addition of EVROKO's 5.75 percent share in the May 2006 
parliamentary elections may seemingly appear sufficient to safely 
land Papadopoulos in the second round of the elections, EVROKO's 
nationalist, anti-federation views and its history of bad blood with 
DISY may scare away any AKEL and DISY voters who are attracted to 
Papadopoulos's candidacy but are appalled by the idea of joining 
forces with EVROKO. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A Papadopoulos campaign insider disagrees.  He believes 
that Papadopoulos's image as the leader of the "no" camp at the 2004 
referendum is stronger than AKEL's legendary discipline and party 
allegiance.  He is convinced that Papadopoulos will easily draw 
votes from the huge 76 percent "no" vote pool, especially now that 
he is free of the constraints placed on his Cyprus-problem policy by 
AKEL.  He argued that AKEL's irresolute stance on the Annan Plan has 
driven many AKEL voters to Papadopoulos's camp and was certain that 
Christofias will "fall on his face" in the February elections. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Meanwhile, in Kasoulides's camp hopes and fears are riding 
high.  While Christofias's candidacy has suddenly made Kasoulides a 
serious contender, it simultaneously exposed his most damaging 
weaknesses: his lack of proven leadership qualities.   A Kasoulides 
campaign insider and senior DISY official confessed to EmbOff that 
"most bets are on Christofias" to be the next president.  Should 
Kasoulides fail to significantly improve his image and thus create a 
momentum for his candidacy, his chances will collapse, he said.  He 
disclosed that private media outlets and many influential 
businesspeople are waiting for the September poll results in order 
to decide on which side to jump.  He feared that Kasoulides's 
failure to enter the second round would cause a serious and possibly 
irreparable rift in DISY.  He revealed that a DISY-commissioned poll 
showed that half of the DISY supporters would never vote for 
Christofias and the other half are dead set against Papadopoulos. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Another Kasoulides campaign insider, however, was 
optimistic about Kasoulides's chances to win the elections.  He was 
certain that the election will result in a second round runoff 
between Kasoulides and Christofias.  Since most DIKO and EVROKO 
voters will never agree to back the Communist Christofias, 
Kasoulides will be the victor. 
 
AKEL Shifting to the Center 
--------------------------- 
¶10.  (SBU) AKEL spokesman Andros Kyprianou told EmbOff that the 
party's decision to go it alone rather than throwing its support 
behind other parties' candidates as it has in the past was part of a 
longer-term strategy to establish AKEL as a party with a direct 
claim to power.   More revealing of AKEL's future plans was AKEL's 
decision to hire the services of mainland Greek communications and 
policy advisor, Yiannis Loullis, who also serves as an advisor to 
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis.  Loullis is best known for his 
motto that "the future is in the center."   According to an AKEL 
insider, in his speech to the closed session of the July 8 AKEL 
Congress, Christofias talked about transforming AKEL into an urban 
political party, while in public appearances AKEL officials have 
dropped references to communism in favor of socialism.   DISY Deputy 
Leader Averof Neophytou worried to us that by moving toward the 
center, AKEL will be able to attract middle and upper middle-class 
voters and donors, making it an even more formidable rival.  A 
possible AKEL success in the upcoming elections, he said, would 
speed up this process. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶11.  (SBU) While Papadopoulos's reelection seemed a near certainty a 
few months ago, it is now anybody's game.    Christofias' candidacy 
has deprived him of the support of AKEL that was critical to his 
election in 2003 and has made this a tight race.  With no clear 
favorite, many key opinion makers who appeared poised to jump on the 
Papadopoulos band-wagon are now waiting to see the poll results this 
fall before tying their fates to any of the three main contenders. 
A three-candidate race will also make it much more difficult for 
Papadopoulos to turn the campaign into a "second referendum" on the 
Annan plan.  To get to the second round, Papadopoulos now needs the 
support of all of DIKO's, EDEK's and EVROKO's parliamentary voters 
or significant defections from the AKEL and DISY electorates.  This 
will not be easy.  The parties in his coalition lack the political 
organization and internal discipline of the two larger parties.  In 
the months leading up to the February 17 presidential election, 
Papadopoulos will seek to satisfy hardliners and moderates alike in 
order to convince them to renew their trust in him.  Papadopoulos is 
also likely to try to improve his relations with the international 
community, and particularly the U.S., in an attempt to fend off AKEL 
criticisms that his reputation abroad has tipped the international 
balance in favor of the Turkish Cypriot side. 
 
SCHLICHER