VZCZCXRO2286
RR RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #0619/01 2061717
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251717Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5566
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0734
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0041
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NDJAMENA 000619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, GGOTTLIEB, SBRADLEY 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, AFERRARA, ACONVERY, DLILLIE, AMALLEY 
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN 
USAID/AFR/EA FOR BDUNFORD 
NAIROBI/ECARO FOR JMYER; FFP FOR NESTES 
STATE FOR AF/C, AFR/WA, AF/EPS, EB, CRS, AND PRM 
USUN FOR TMALY 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
USEUCOM FOR USAID WANDERSON 
KHARTOUM/USAID FOR EKERST, JMARKS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
ROME FOR RNEWBERG, HSPANOS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM SOCI PREF PREL CD
 
SUBJECT:  EASTERN CHAD - INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT UPDATE 
 
 
NDJAMENA 00000619  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  Most internally displaced people (IDPs) in eastern Chad are now 
receiving assistance from humanitarian organizations.  The numbers 
have stabilized at about 170,000, and due to the rains no major 
conflict is expected for several months.  Issues faced by the 
humanitarian community include insecurity, the risk of creating a 
"pull" factor into IDP sites, the question of return and the need 
for a post-crisis strategy.  Most NGOs would welcome the deployment 
of an enhanced Chadian gendarme force backed up by EU troops.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  Nairobi-based USAID/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) 
Principal Regional Advisor (PRA) Jack Myer visited Chad July 2-16. 
While there he traveled in eastern Chad with USAID Field Officer 
Stan Stalla, visiting the towns of Abeche, Farchana, Adre, and Goz 
Beida.  The objectives of his trip were to track the evolution of 
the humanitarian situation affecting IDPs and consider further 
funding options. 
 
¶3.  This is the first of two cables and will report on the general 
IDP situation, some specific issues and provide recommendations.  A 
second cable will detail the specifics of IDP conditions. 
 
MORE IDPS IN AN OVERBURDENED AREA 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Compared to the PRA's last visit, in November 2006, there have 
been considerable changes in eastern Chad.  Firstly, the number of 
IDPs has risen from   70,000 to over 170,000, according to figures 
provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR).  Secondly, the humanitarian community has stepped up the 
provision of essential humanitarian services to the IDPs, and are 
meeting most needs.  Thirdly, there have not been any new attacks on 
Chadian villages in three months, according to the UN Department of 
Safety and Security (UNDSS).  Finally, the rains have started, which 
will make road transport difficult and facilitate the spread of 
water-borne diseases. 
 
¶5.  Between November 2006 and April 2007, a combination of attacks 
by Janjaweed-like mounted raiders from Sudan, Chadian rebels and 
Chadian ethnic militias on Arab and non-Arab villages in eastern 
Chad, mostly in the area south of the Abeche-Adre road in the Dar 
Assongha and Dar Sila Departments, drove 100,000 Chadians from their 
villages, adding to the 70,000 already displaced.  Most settled in 
sites near perceived security and essential services (such as 
existing Sudanese refugee camps) and/or where they have ethnic 
relatives.  Most fled no more than 50 km from their villages, and 
brought a varying amount of personal items with them. 
 
¶6.  According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian 
Affairs (OCHA), the consensus figure for IDPs is about 173,000. 
This figure, however, has been the subject of considerable debate 
within the humanitarian community.  UNHCR has undertaken a profiling 
exercise with its NGO partners InterSos and International Relief and 
Development (IRD), and came up with the 173,000 figure.  The 
methodology has been challenged on the grounds that in most cases 
the NGOs relied on possibly biased village chiefs for population 
figures, and guesswork.  The UN World Food Program (WFP) relies on 
data from its own sampling methods, often lower than what NGOs find 
in the sites.  The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) 
is convinced the true figure is maybe around 140,000.  However, in 
the interests of presenting a united front and aiding planners, 
agencies have settled on 173,000 as a consensus figure. 
 
¶7.  The 120,000 IDPs in Dar Sila are mostly living in semi-organized 
sites, around the refugee camps of Goz Beida and Goz Amer and the 
village of Dogdore.  About 38,000 IDPs are in Dar Assongha, living 
near their relatives in sites or integrated in their villages, and 
in some cases, within their households.  The concentration of 
population in areas with scarce water, pasture and firewood is 
creating tension with local populations and straining the 
environment - already strained by the presence of 220,000 Sudanese 
 
NDJAMENA 00000619  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
refugees. 
 
ISSUES FACING THE HUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  The issue of return of IDPs is the subject of considerable 
discussion in eastern Chad.  Although there have been no attacks on 
villages or new displacements since mid-April, and the rains have 
set in, meaning there will probably be none until September, the 
IDPs appear to be sitting tight for the time being.  However, it is 
the planting season for the cereal crop and many are reported to 
have returned to their fields to plant, staying just long enough to 
do so.  While not a permanent return, this may boost confidence. 
 
¶9.  The IDPs themselves are categorical that they will only return 
home for good when there is security, which for them means the 
visible and permanent presence of security forces, not just in the 
main towns but in every village.  Although the GOC has been beefing 
up the military presence in the east, it is not clear if these 
forces will be used to secure Chadian villages or confront potential 
rebel attacks. 
 
¶10.  The UN has just started the process of leading a planning 
effort for a potential return, an effort it will need to conclude 
well before the end of the rainy season.  Humanitarian 
organizations, including the ICRC, eagerly await the opportunity to 
participate. 
 
¶11.  A major issue facing the humanitarian community is that of 
avoiding the creation of a "triple standard".  The concern is that 
the 220,000 refugees are benefiting from a mature operation that 
mostly meets international service delivery standards.  The IDPs are 
beginning to get access to services that approach these standards, 
and the local Chadians that are not displaced continue to live in 
the abject poverty their displaced cousins left behind.  Because the 
environment is so delicate in eastern Chad, and natural resources 
(water, firewood, pasture) so scarce, the potential for conflict and 
jealousy is high. 
 
¶12.  The solution to this, articulately advocated by the ICRC among 
others, is to provide assistance where required based on need, not 
on movement, so that if IDPs end up near a certain village, any 
assistance provided benefits the IDPs and the villagers.  Most 
organizations agree with this approach in theory, but limited 
resources and the imperative to raise service delivery standards to 
international norms continue to create assistance gaps, especially 
around the larger IDP sites in Dar Sila. 
 
¶13.  One of the stickiest issues for the humanitarian community is 
the concern that as aid agencies get organized, and the response to 
the humanitarian needs of the IDPs is increasingly robust, the IDPs 
themselves may get too comfortable in the camps.  It is a fine line 
for the agencies to walk between the humanitarian imperative to 
provide basic life-sustaining assistance, and the fear of creating 
dependency in the IDP sites.  Additionally, it is feared that as 
assistance standards for the IDPs improve, a "magnet" effect may 
come in to play whereby villagers in affected areas come to the 
sites claiming they were attacked when really they are trying to 
access some of the assistance being provided. 
 
¶14.  Insecurity is a major part of the context in eastern Chad, 
which suffers from a Chadian rebellion, localized ethnic violence, 
spillover from the Darfur rebellion, opportunistic raiding from 
across the border and general banditry.  Since November 2006, the 
security situation has deteriorated, and the entire area is now on 
UN security Phase Four, meaning that only humanitarian activities 
can be undertaken and strict security measures are in place.  These 
include using convoys of at least two vehicles on all routes, a 
requirement for security escorts on many routes (provided by the 
Chadian gendarme force that also guards the refugee camps), strict 
radio check procedures and frequent re-analysis of the situation by 
UNDSS personnel permanently stationed in Abeche.  All of this adds 
to the costs and time required to implement programs in eastern 
Chad. 
 
NDJAMENA 00000619  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶15.  Because of the risks of getting caught in crossfire or being 
targeted by bandits, as well as the complications associated with 
convoy travel, most humanitarian contacts welcome the French-led UN 
initiative to strengthen the Chadian gendarme force.  There are some 
concerns that humanitarian neutrality could be compromised, but 
contacts point out that there is already a gendarme force providing 
escorts and trying to guard the refugee camps with little impact on 
neutrality.  Some European NGOs have criticized the recent air 
bridges provided by French military aircraft with NFI for IDPs as 
blurring the line between military and humanitarian spheres, with 
possible negative consequences for humanitarian workers. 
 
 
¶16.  A concern expressed by several interlocutors is that above and 
beyond the need for a plan for post-rain scenarios regarding IDPs, 
there is little thought going into the longer-term development needs 
in eastern Chad.  There is no UN Development Program presence in 
Abeche, no "early recovery" cluster, and no discussion of 
development issues beyond the very theoretical. 
 
USAID\OFDA RESPONSE EFFORTS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶17.  USAID/DCHA/OFDA has been funding several UN agencies and NGOs 
to provide assistance to IDPs in eastern Chad.  They include 
International Relief and Development (IRD - food security), World 
Concern (food security, water), International Medical Corps (IMC 
-health, nutrition), MENTOR (health), UNHCR (non-food items - NFI), 
the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF - water/sanitation, health, 
nutrition) and OCHA (coordination). 
 
¶18.  The USAID team has been approached by two other organizations 
requesting funding, Concern and Save the Children US (SCF/US). 
Concern is proposing IDP site management in Dogdore for 27,000 IDPs, 
while SCF/US would like to implement protection activities for women 
and children in Koukou and Dogdore.  Both NGOs are preparing full 
proposals for consideration by OFDA later this month. 
 
¶19.  OFDA is also considering funding for additional NFI, if 
required, as well as increased support for air logistics through Air 
Serv.  Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has requested funding for its 
partner, SECADEV, to implement food security activities in parts of 
Dar Assongha where there are IDPs in host-villages.  Both IRD and 
IMC have submitted proposals to continue their activities in the 
east. 
 
RECOMMENDATIONS 
--------------- 
 
¶20.  The USAID team in eastern Chad recommends that: 
 
-- OFDA consider funding Concern for site management in Dogdore, 
SCF/US for protection activities in Dar Sila, a second tranche for 
Air Serv's airlift operation, and cost extensions for IMC, CRS and 
IRD; 
 
-- OFDA set aside some funding for an NFI airlift if UNHCR ends up 
requesting more, whether because it discovers gaps or because of new 
IDP needs; 
 
-- USAID\OFDA place a Field Officer in Abeche on a semi-permanent 
basis to monitor the situation; 
 
-- the OFDA Field Officer and embassy Ndjamena continue to encourage 
the UN to work with the rest of the humanitarian community during 
the rainy season to produce a basic contingency plan for post-rains 
IDP scenarios, whether return, status quo, or more violence. 
 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶21. The humanitarian situation in eastern Chad has become more 
complicated with the increase in internal displacement.  The 
 
NDJAMENA 00000619  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
positive news is that the numbers have not increased in three 
months, and that assistance is now being provided in a more robust 
manner.  However, the assumption is widespread in eastern Chad that 
when the rains end, usually around September, a new round of 
hostilities will break out, especially given the level of military 
build up of the Chadian forces and their Sudanese rebel allies in 
the region. 
 
¶22.  The Chadian authorities and humanitarian community will need to 
simultaneously begin serious planning for a return of the IDPs once 
the rain stops, but also be ready for a worsening scenario involving 
resumed conflict.  In this context, the humanitarian community would 
welcome the deployment of the EU backed, UN-supported, beefed-up 
Chadian police force to protect both the IDPs and humanitarian 
operations, staff and assets in the region.  TAMLYN