VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0566/01 1860922
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050922Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN PRIORITY 0743
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6221

UNCLAS MINSK 000566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BOEHNER MEETING WITH 
BELARUSIANS IN TALLINN 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Your decision to meet with leaders from the 
Belarusian opposition underlines continued USG support for 
democratic transformation in the country Secretary Rice aptly 
labeled Europe's last dictatorship.  Belarus's increasing 
international isolation puts the opposition in a unique 
position to broaden its base of support.  However, the 
opposition has lost steam while settling internal 
differences.  One of your interlocutors represents the 
political parties that have remained within a coalition 
formed in 2005, and the other the camp of former presidential 
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich.  Points you may wish to make 
in your meeting include: USG support for democratic change 
has never been stronger; supporters of democracy should 
collaborate where possible, but work independently when 
necessary; and, active participation in the 2008 
parliamentary elections must begin early to regain momentum. 
 End summary. 
 
Lukashenko Faces Unprecedented International Isolation 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has 
recently been forced to reach out to international pariahs 
such as Iran and Cuba due his increasing isolation within 
Europe.  In June the European Union suspended trade 
preferences to Belarus in response to the country's failure 
to respect basic workers rights.  Even traditional ally 
Russia has moved to wean Minsk from huge energy subsidies 
that had propped up the Belarusian economy and Lukashenko's 
system of political patronage. 
 
¶3. (SBU) During an April visit to Minsk, U.S. Deputy 
Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer delivered a very 
clear ultimatum that the Belarusian Government must release 
all political prisoners or face toughening U.S. sanctions. 
Unfortunately, six persons, including former presidential 
candidate Aleksandr Kozulin, remain behind bars simply for 
exercising their inalienable right to freedom of speech and 
association.  As a result, expanded economic sanctions and 
travel restrictions on additional officials are under ative 
consideration. 
 
Opposition Groups Go Their Separate Ways 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In the absence of a looming presidential election to 
unite them, the opposition coalition that formed for the 2006 
presidential elections has frayed.  A May congress formalized 
a split, with coalition presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Milinkevich opting to focus on his new "For Freedom" 
movement, which he hopes will mobilize non-partisan segments 
of civil society in support of democracy.  The four strongest 
democratic political parties remain in the United Democratic 
Forces coalition. 
 
Opposition Needs to Coordinate to Expand Support Base 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Opposition coalition and civil society leaders know 
that they must reach out to convince average Belarusians to 
actively support democratic change.  They face huge barriers 
in the form of authoritarian propaganda spread by the 
state-controlled media and a repressive security apparatus 
that targets those most active in resisting Lukashenko. 
Ideally, the United Democratic Forces coalition will develop 
a clear message based on bread-and-butter issues and begin 
campaigning all out even though elections for parliament are 
not due until October 2008.  The opposition expects 
elections, like all those under Lukashenko, to be fraudulent, 
but they still present the best opportunity for rallying 
support against the dictator. 
 
¶6. (SBU) For its part, "For Freedom" can play a constructive 
role by engaging civil society activists to promote free and 
fair elections.  In some cases "For Freedom" members who also 
belong to a political party may wish to seek to run in United 
Democratic Forces primaries.  The danger lies in the 
possibility that "For Freedom" will ignore the coalition and 
collect signatures to get its own candidates on the ballot to 
run against the coalition primary winners.  Such a move would 
likely destroy what remained of the coalition and leave 
Lukashenko unscathed. 
 
Your Meeting with Sergey Alfer and a "For Freedom" Deputy 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Sergey Alfer is a former deputy chairman of the 
United Civic Party, the party within the United Democratic 
 
Forces coalition most focused on free markets.  Alfer helped 
write two of the documents approved in the May congress -- a 
strategic action plan and a draft interim constitution.  The 
strategic action plan outlines plans by the opposition to use 
mass protests to pressure the regime into negotiation with 
the opposition. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Yuriy Gubarevich is one of two deputies in Aleksandr 
Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement.  He was a city council 
member from Beloozersk in western Belarus until fraudulent 
local elections in January.  He is also a member of one of 
the constituent parties in the United Democratic Forces, 
Belarusian National Front, a center-right party that promotes 
Belarusian language and culture.  He will likely seek to run 
for parliament and it will be key that he do so with the 
sponsorship of the United Democratic Forces. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Points you may wish to emphasize in your meeting 
include: 
 
-- USG support for change in Belarus has never been stronger. 
 
Background: Bush's mention of former presidential candidate 
Aleksandr Kozulin at the top of a list of prominent political 
prisoners last month in Prague demonstrates Belarus still 
rates attention at the highest levels in Washington. 
Assuming the regime fails to release the remaining political 
prisoners, the USG will move forward with toughened travel 
and economic sanctions against the regime. 
 
-- Political parties and NGOs have distinct roles.  Where 
possible, you should collaborate on some projects and work 
independently on others. 
 
Background: The group needs to hear from Washington 
interlocutors that there are various ways to promote 
democratic change in a country, and political parties and 
NGOs both play essential roles.  While each group may have a 
particular approach to mobilizing people, events such as 
demonstrations planned for the fall serve as excellent 
opportunities for collaboration.  "For Freedom" should 
consider playing an active role in mobilizing civil society 
groups to work together with political parties on certain 
projects. 
 
-- Active participation in the 2008 parliamentary elections 
must begin early to regain momentum. 
 
Background: While standing as a candidate entails facing 
intense pressure from the regime, members of the coalition 
should be willing to do whatever it takes to regain the 
momentum that it lost after the 2006 presidential elections. 
U.S. policy limits financing for individual political 
parties, but we can and will support a broad-based coalition 
for democratic change. "For Freedom" should not expect USG 
support if it bypasses United Democratic Forces primary 
procedures and runs its own candidates, thereby allowing 
Lukashenko to divide and conquer the opposition. 
 
Stewart