VZCZCXRO6497
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #1750/01 1992153
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 182153Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0831
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAGUA 001750 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA FOR SHAWN BIRD/INR 
 VICTORIA ALVARADO/NSC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ECON NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN PUBLIC SEES COUNTRY ON WRONG PATH WITH 
ORTEGA GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 01184 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 0471 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Nicaraguan public opinion has continued to 
sour on President Daniel Ortega, with his approval rating 
taking a 60-point nose-dive from a positive 51 percent job 
approval rating in February to a negative 10 percent approval 
just four months later, according to the latest CID-Gallup 
poll conducted June 5 to 12.  Although Ortega swept into 
office on a wave of optimism, public euphoria that his 
presidency would signal positive change has diminished. 
Citing uncertainties on the economic horizon and lack of 
jobs, many citizens are worried the country is headed in the 
wrong direction.  Despite the increased sense of pessimism 
overall, Ortega has still held onto respectable approval 
ratings in the areas of delivering free education and 
healthcare.  End Summary 
 
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Negatives Outpacing the Positives 
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¶2. (SBU) A CID-Gallup poll of 1,258 households nationwide 
assessed public attitudes toward the Ortega administration 
and its impact the future of the country, Ortega's style of 
governance and management of the economy, as well as views of 
the opposition, foreign relations, and other issues of 
national concern.  CID-Gallup concluded that the Ortega 
government had either lost, or simply failed to capitalize 
on, the good will and political capital which the government 
had enjoyed upon taking office in January when people held 
great expectations for change (Reftel A).  The June findings 
suggest a high degree of impatience among the public and 
desire for immediate, concrete results.  Once the initial 
euphoria normally associated with a new administration wore 
off, people have begun to see they are living with the same 
problems they endured under previous governments; thus the 
sunny views they may have held four months earlier no longer 
fit the reality. 
 
¶3. (SBU) People saw the glass half-empty rather than 
half-full in a number of areas affecting their daily lives. 
In February, 57 percent were optimistic and only 17 percent 
were pessimistic regarding the direction of the country.  By 
June, the same pollsters found that 57 percent of Nicaraguans 
no longer believed the country was on the right path, with 
less than a third (31 percent) still remaining positive.  In 
addition, 57 percent were pessimistic about President Daniel 
Ortega,s ability to deliver on his campaign promises and 
rated him as accomplishing "very little" or "nothing." 
President Ortega was viewed least favorably by residents of 
the capital city Managua, by followers of the two main 
Liberal Parties--the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and 
the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC), and among people with 
at least one year of university education.  Given a 49 
percent approval rating from the Sandinista National 
Liberation Front (FSLN), Ortega appears to be facing a tough 
audience even within his own party.  When polled in February, 
87 percent of FSLN sympathizers opined that the future of the 
country would be better off with Daniel Ortega as president, 
and just 4 percent held the opposite view. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With a 10 percent negative approval on job 
performance, Ortega has received the lowest rating of any 
president of the past 16 years, even worse than former 
president and convicted criminal Arnoldo Aleman of the PLC 
who had a 5 percent disapproval rating at a similar point in 
his term.  More people held a negative perception of the way 
Ortega was handling the presidency (36 percent) than a 
positive one (26 percent).  Attitudes toward his performance 
on the economy was even less favorable.  Only 13 percent gave 
him a favorable rating for managing the economy, while 39 
percent disapproved, and the remainder judged it neither good 
nor bad.  Public opinion of Ortega's political persona, 
however, were actually more favorable that the assessments of 
job performance.  He received a 43 percent favorable and a 48 
percent unfavorable review, with nine percent expressing no 
opinion. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Public opinion toward First Lady Rosario Murillo has 
also slid, with her negatives besting her positives.  In 
February, when 42 percent approved of the first lady and 21 
percent disapproved, by June she slipped to a 33 percent 
approval and 48 disapproval rating, matching her husband in 
the latter score. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
It's the Economy, Comandante 
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¶6.  (SBU) People have grown increasingly disillusioned about 
the country's economic outlook and the impact on their 
family's ability to make ends meet. Lack of employment, high 
cost of living, and a general sense of uncertainty about the 
country's future topped the list of chief concerns raised by 
respondents.  At least 41 percent saw the economic situation 
getting worse, an opinion shared by 22 percent of FSLN 
sympathizers--compared to 43 percent who judged the situation 
as the same as it always has been.  Although President Ortega 
pledged to generate more jobs on his watch to reduce the 
poverty and hunger that affects more than 3 million of the 
5.1 million population, he has failed to live up to his 
promises. Just one out of every eight households polled 
judged President Ortega as managing the economy well.  While 
41 out of every hundred Nicaraguans believed there were fewer 
opportunities since Ortega assumed power, only 14 out of 
every hundred believed there were more, and 43 believed there 
has been no change.  Ortega received positive marks for 
managing the economy "well," by only 13 percent of the 
population, a majority of which were Sandinista respondents. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) When asked what most concerned them at a personal 
or family level, the top three worries were: earnings did not 
cover basic necessities (34 percent), the head of household 
was out of work (19 percent), and increased neighborhood 
crime and violence (13 percent).  One fifth of heads of 
households interviewed were without permanent employment and 
reported feeling under increased pressure to emigrate in 
search of better opportunities outside Nicaragua.  This sense 
of disillusion was shared by 36 percent of FSLN sympathizers, 
especially those living in rural areas and with lower levels 
of education. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  People generally did not find themselves better 
off than they were before Ortega took office, with a majority 
(71 percent) asserting that the cost of living has risen "a 
great deal" in the last four months.  While just under half 
(49 percent) perceive their family,s economic situation to 
be the same or stable compared to the previous year, 34 
percent perceived it as worse and only 16 percent perceived 
it is better.  Reaction to the government,s increase in the 
minimum wage was less than enthusiastic, with 68 percent 
finding the 18 percent raise in the urban and rural sectors 
of the economy insufficient, in contrast to 27 percent which 
found it to be adequate for now.  Curiously, more people (34 
percent) remained optimistic that their family's economic 
situation would improve in the coming year than feared it 
would get worse (27 percent).  This relative sense of 
optimism toward the family's economic prospects, however, 
decreased from February when 41 percent believed their 
situation would improve, while only 11 percent worried it 
would worsen. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Feeling Less Free, Less Safe 
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¶9.  (SBU) The strength of Nicaragua,s democracy and freedom 
of expression has moved to shakier ground, in the view of 
most respondents.  More than half (54 percent) were concerned 
that they were not free to express their political opinion 
without suffering some form of recrimination, in contrast to 
February when a less dramatic 39 percent held this similar 
concern.  Close to the same number (51 percent) opined that 
President Ortega had failed to act democratically.  A number 
of respondents lamented the continued wave of government 
employment firings.  While six out of ten respondents 
rejected changing the constitution to allow for consecutive 
presidential election, three out of ten were in favor of it, 
but these supporters were primarily from the FSLN party. 
More than three-fourths polled wanted municipal elections 
held in 2008 and were opposed to their postponement. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) While President Ortega and his party won on 
campaign promises of peace and reconciliation, zero hunger 
and zero unemployment, and being the people's president, an 
increased number of the population no longer view these 
promises as credible.  Most respondents believed the 
government either "never" or "almost never" acts on behalf of 
the people.  These findings reveal a sharp contrast to the 
image people held in February, when 45 percent were confident 
that the Ortega government would be democratic and only 12 
percent predicted he would follow a communist ideology and 
take the country back to the 1980s. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Attitudes toward crime also reflect growing alarm 
about the country's security.  More than half the public (55 
percent) perceived that crime had worsened, and 22 percent 
reported that they or a member of their household had been a 
victim of assault or robbery in the past fourth months. 
Nevertheless, growing concern about crime did not translate 
into loss of confidence in law enforcement authorities, with 
more than half polled (56 percent) agreeing that the number 
of police directly involved with criminal elements was 
slight, and another 20 percent asserting there was no police 
involvement in crime at all.  Meanwhile, National Police 
Commissioner Aminta Granera sustained her stellar standing 
with an overwhelming 80 percent approval. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - 
But All Is Not Lost 
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¶12.  (SBU) An interesting, if perhaps contradictory finding, 
is that despite the acceleration in negatives toward the 
president as a person and his ability to govern, a majority 
of 54 percent were still optimistic about the return of the 
Ortega government, possibly signaling that most people were 
not willing to give up their aspirations for the changes the 
new administration was supposed to deliver.  Although concern 
about corruption was ranked second in overall problems facing 
the country (after unemployment), the survey found that the 
majority of the public believes that the level of corruption 
in seven key institutions  (the judicial system, the 
presidency, customs, ministries, internal revenue service, 
public registry, and public health system) had either 
stabilized or diminished. 
 
¶13.  (U) Although most regarded Ortega as falling short on 
his campaign promises, he received credit for accomplishing 
results on two issues people identified as priorities for his 
government when it first took office: free education and 
healthcare.   Nearly 90 percent of parents with children of 
school age had a good or very good view of the quality of 
education.  Half of parents with children in public school 
indicated they were paying less for education since President 
Ortega had decreed that public education would be free, and 
81 percent of those polled overall agreed that more children 
would be enrolled in primary and secondary school as a result 
of this government policy. 
 
¶14.  (U) The free healthcare policy garnered similar high 
marks, with 72 percent reporting they were relieved from 
having to pay for medical attention in state hospitals since 
the Sandinista declared it free of charge.  More people rated 
the quality of healthcare in hospitals and clinics as good 
(45 percent) than as poor (23 percent). 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Political Affiliation 
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¶15.  (SBU) More people pledged allegiance to the two main 
Liberal opposition parties than in February, but the FSLN 
still held onto the greatest share overall with 36 percent. 
The number of those identifying themselves as Liberal (a 
combined 30 percent) was on par with those declaring no party 
loyalty at all (31 percent).  In June, the Liberal opposition 
was divided between 16 percent identifying with the PLC and 
14 percent with the ALN.  Only 3 percent claimed belonging to 
other parties, such as the Sandinista Renovation Movement 
(MRS), Camino Cristiano, and the Conservative Party (PC).  In 
February, 39 percent professed belonging to the FSLN, with 
Liberals split between the PLC with 11 percent, and ALN with 
7 percent.  Six percent allied with MRS, Camino Cristiano, 
PC, and other parties, while 37 percent claimed no party 
affiliation. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Foreign Friends: U.S. in Third Place 
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¶16.  (SBU) When asked to choose which countries they 
considered to be Nicaragua's closest friend and ally from a 
list of ten "friendly" countries, Cuba (63 percent) and 
Venezuela (62 percent) came out on top, followed by the 
United States (56 percent) in third place.  North Korea and 
Iran ranked in ninth and tenth place, at 29 percent and 26 
percent, respectively.  Other countries listed were Taiwan 
(47 percent), Mexico (44 percent), El Salvador (43 percent), 
Costa Rica (39 percent), and Honduras (37 percent).  (Note: 
The survey results did not break down responses by party 
affiliation, but it is highly likely that the comparatively 
warmer views toward Cuba and Venezuela are due to FSLN 
respondents.  Further, in contrast to the February poll, 
Bolivia was not on the June list. End Note) 
 
¶17.  (SBU) A majority of respondents (53 percent) expressed 
skepticism toward the oil deal offered by President Hugo 
Chavez and found it doubtful or highly doubtful that 
Venezuela would ultimately forgive Nicaragua the debt it had 
incurred as a result of buying oil on credit.  Views toward 
President Chavez's other trademark project, the Bolivian 
Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), remained positive, with 
70 percent of those who were aware of it (21 percent of those 
polled) believing it would bring benefits to the country. 
The findings also suggested a slight decline in confidence 
toward ALBA since February when 84 percent of the segment 
aware of ALBA (18 percent) believed it would bring benefits 
to Nicaragua. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Views of Other Political Figures 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Views of the opposition remained similar to the 
February poll.  ALN deputy and former presidential candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre has emerged as the strongest 
counterweight to President Ortega and the Sandinista 
government, a view that did not change significantly from the 
February poll. His personal approval ratings, however, were 
higher with 54 percent holding a favorable view.  According 
to CID-Gallup, the June survey results indicate that 
Montealegre has consolidated his image as leader of the 
opposition and of those who identify themselves as Liberals, 
with 51 percent reporting the he should be the leader of an 
eventual unification of the Liberals.  More than half (53 
percent) believed there should be a reunification of Liberal 
forces this year, without the participation of Arnoldo 
Aleman, while 38 percent believed the contrary.  More people 
regarded Aleman as a "caudillo" (62 percent) than as a 
democratic leader (28 percent).  In terms of views of his 
personal character, Aleman received a 20 percent approval and 
a 70 percent disapproval, with the remaining 10 percent 
non-committal. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Mayor of Managua Losing Some Ground, Still Comes Out Ahead 
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¶19. (SBU) The CID-Gallup poll also revealed public 
disenchantment  with other elected officials.  Dionisio 
Marenco, the Sandinista mayor of Managua and potential future 
presidential contender, was rated more favorably on job 
performance than Ortega, with 41 percent of capital residents 
polled agreeing that he was doing "well" or "very well,"  but 
he lost 18 points since the February poll when he enjoyed a 
59 percent positive rating.  Poll analysts asserted that just 
as Marenco received an image boost with the Sandinistas, 
winning the national elections, he was now feeling the 
effects of the negative opinions of the President.  More 
people agreed that certain conditions and services in 
Managua--namely trash collection and level of 
cleanliness--had improved (42 percent) or stayed the same (39 
percent), rather than worsened (14 percent). 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Government Dismisses Poll Results 
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¶20.  (U) Reacting to the release of the poll, Foreign 
Minister Samuel Santos publicly downplayed the negative 
findings, explaining that it was too early for people to 
expect rapid results from a government that was trying to 
overcome "setbacks" it had inherited from previous 
governments.  FM Santos asserted that the decline in 
President Ortega,s approval numbers was due to 
dissatisfaction over the energy crisis. (Note:   It is worth 
noting, however, that even though power outages and rolling 
black-outs have become a fact of  life in Nicaragua, only 8 
percent cited lack of electricity as the principal problem 
facing the country.   Lack of electricity ranked six on the 
top-ten list of the most serious problems on a national 
level, after unemployment, corruption, crime and violence, 
high cost of living, and lack of moral values, but of higher 
concern than lack of hospitals and medicine, potable water, 
narcotics trafficking, and environmental damage. End Note.) 
Even though the energy problem was the result of the 
cumulative effect of "previous government errors," FM Santos 
explained, the people were inclined to hold the faces of the 
current government responsible.  The Foreign Minister also 
rejected claims that the negative perceptions were linked to 
the alleged secrecy of the Ortega government, the use of the 
FSLN Party Secretariat as the Presidential office, or other 
controversial decisions such as the destruction of a public 
fountain and the firings of governmental officials.  He was 
not concerned about the negative results because, as he put 
it, "this government if working very hard, clearly to benefit 
the vast majority." 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Comment: Although the CID-Gallup survey data did 
not break down all responses by party affiliation, a 
comparison of the more positive February results with the 
negative results of June, combined with the results of the 
April M&R poll (Reftel B), indicates that FSLN voters have 
grown disillusioned and divided in their attitudes toward 
their own leaders.  The so-called "euphoria" over Ortega,s 
return to office in January was largely due to the vote of 
confidence from the Sandinista faithful.  While the lower 
marks from Liberal ranks was not surprising, the honeymoon 
Ortega enjoyed with his own party was shorter than expected. 
Some opposition commentators have opined that the lower 
ratings from the Sandinista ranks indicates that FSLN voters 
are feeling "deceived." Another explanation for the drop in 
favorable ratings is that now that the FSLN is the government 
there is less unconditional support for its leaders than when 
it was the opposition party.  As one recent visitor to the 
Embassy explained to Poloff: "The Sandinistas were more 
comfortable as the opposition, but were unprepared to govern; 
while the Liberals, who were more comfortable being the 
government, were unprepared to be the opposition. 
 
 
 
 
TRIVELLI